Week 5 2025 · September 27, 2025
Rice at Navy, Week 5 2025: who deserved to win?
Navy beat Rice 21–13, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams actually played, Navy wins 10 of 10.
Before kickoff Navy was an 82% favorite.
Final
 Rice Owls | 13 |
|---|---|
 Navy Midshipmen | 21 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +1 Navy about even · −1 Rice
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Rice wins 0, Navy wins 10.
- 1 RICE 7 NAVY 13
- 2 RICE 10 NAVY 21
- 3 RICE 3 NAVY 17
- 4 RICE 0 NAVY 17
- 5 RICE 10 NAVY 31
- 6 RICE 7 NAVY 30
- 7 RICE 3 NAVY 28
- 8 RICE 10 NAVY 38
- 9 RICE 7 NAVY 38
- 10 RICE 0 NAVY 38
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
How 4,000 replays ended
Rice wins 1% of them, Navy 99%. The line is what actually happened: Navy by 8.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Rice by 17+ | 0.0% |
| Rice by 9–16 | 0.2% |
| Rice by 1–8 | 1.0% |
| Level after regulation | 0.3% |
| Navy by 1–8 | 8.0% |
| Navy by 9–16 | 13.7% |
| Navy by 17+ | 76.7% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
The kicks
How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance), and what happened.
- N. Kirkwood, 43 yds missed · 64% expected
- E. Gota, 35 yds made · 79% expected
- E. Gota, 44 yds made · 64% expected
Penalties: Rice 5 for 35 yards, Navy 8 for 65 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 12:36 | Holding on Navy, 10 yards, wiping out the play | +2% RICE +1.5 pts |
| Q1 5:30 | False Start on Navy, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% RICE +0.7 pts |
| Q2 11:23 | Holding on Navy, 10 yards | +1% RICE +1.2 pts |
| Q2 9:27 | False Start on Navy, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% RICE +0.6 pts |
| Q2 8:32 | False Start on Navy, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% RICE +0.5 pts |
| Q3 13:59 | False Start on Rice, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% NAVY +0.8 pts |
| Q3 11:41 | Holding on Navy, 10 yards, wiping out the play | +1% RICE +2.0 pts |
| Q3 5:49 | False Start on Rice, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% NAVY +0.9 pts |
| Q3 2:13 | False Start on Rice, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% NAVY +0.7 pts |
| Q4 12:47 | False Start on Navy, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% RICE +0.5 pts |
| Q4 0:59 | False Start on Rice, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% NAVY +0.3 pts |
| Q4 0:29 | Pass Interference on Navy, 15 yards | 0% NAVY +0.1 pts |
| Q4 0:24 | Unsportsmanlike Conduct on Rice, 15 yards | 0% NAVY +0.5 pts |
When it happened
Navy’s chance of winning
Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q1 12:53 | Navy converted 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 60% expected | +1% NAVY | NAVY: Touchdown |
| 2 | Q1 12:36 | Holding on Navy, 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls | +2% RICE | RICE: Punt |
| 3 | Q1 10:43 | Navy converted 3rd & 133rd & 4th downs · 28% expected | +3% NAVY | NAVY: Touchdown |
| 4 | Q1 7:04 | Navy converted 4th & 23rd & 4th downs · 61% expected | +2% NAVY | NAVY: Punt |
| 5 | Q1 4:01 | Navy was stopped on 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 34% expected | +1% RICE | NAVY: Punt |
| 6 | Q2 13:31 | Rice converted 3rd & 113rd & 4th downs · 23% expected | +2% RICE | RICE: Punt |
| 7 | Q3 5:32 | Rice converted 3rd & 113rd & 4th downs · 22% expected | +2% RICE | RICE: Field goal |
| 8 | Q3 1:41 | Rice converted 3rd & 93rd & 4th downs · 26% expected | +2% RICE | RICE: Field goal |
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Rice 2% · Navy 98%
- Final margin
- Navy by 8
- Luck in points
- 5.7 for Rice
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Navy by 13.7
- Replay with same day's form
- Rice 1% · Navy 99% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.
Methodology and validation · All Week 5 2025 games · 
Rice · 
Navy
More from Week 5 2025
- South Alabama at North Texas UNT 36–22 · replay 72% for the winner
- Tulane at Tulsa TULN 31–14 · replay 76% for the winner
- Army at East Carolina ECU 28–6 · replay 91% for the winner
- Memphis at Florida Atlantic MEM 55–26 · replay 94% for the winner
- Hawai'i at Air Force HAW 44–35 · replay 5% for the winner
- Louisville at Pittsburgh LOU 34–27 · replay 11% for the winner
- California at Boston College CAL 28–24 · replay 28% for the winner
- Marshall at Louisiana UL 54–51 · replay 29% for the winner
- Cincinnati at Kansas CIN 37–34 · replay 30% for the winner
- Houston at Oregon State HOU 27–24 · replay 34% for the winner
- Oregon at Penn State ORE 30–24 · replay 39% for the winner
- Georgia Tech at Wake Forest GT 30–29 · replay 40% for the winner