luckadjusted
CFB Week 4 · 2026

Week 5 2025 · September 27, 2025

Tulane at Tulsa, Week 5 2025: who deserved to win?

Tulane beat Tulsa 31–14, and the replays lean its way: with the same day's form, it wins 8 of 10.

Before kickoff Tulane was an 83% favorite.

Final

Tulane Green Wave 31
Tulsa Golden Hurricane 14

September 27, 2025 · Chapman Stadium · Closing line: Tulane −14.5

Luck index +24 Tulane about even · −24 Tulsa

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Tulane wins 8, Tulsa wins 2.

  1. 1 TULN 35 TLSA 0
  2. 2 TULN 36 TLSA 7
  3. 3 TULN 27 TLSA 3
  4. 4 TULN 27 TLSA 7
  5. 5 TULN 28 TLSA 14
  6. 6 TULN 21 TLSA 10
  7. 7 TULN 28 TLSA 21
  8. 8 TULN 10 TLSA 7
  9. 9 TULN 24 TLSA 27
  10. 10 TULN 10 TLSA 23

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Tulane wins 76% of them, Tulsa 24%, counting the 4% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Tulane by 17.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Tulane by 17+37.1%
Tulane by 9–1618.8%
Tulane by 1–817.4%
Level after regulation4.2%
Tulsa by 1–812.4%
Tulsa by 9–166.4%
Tulsa by 17+3.8%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +12.2 points to Tulane: the final margin was Tulane by 17, without the luck Tulane by 4.8. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

Penalties: Tulane 10 for 89 yards, Tulsa 6 for 54 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 8:08 False Start on Tulsa, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% TULN +0.6 pts
Q1 3:16 Illegal Block on Tulane, 10 yards +2% TLSA +1.3 pts
Q2 3:59 False Start on Tulane, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% TLSA +0.6 pts
Q2 0:51 Personal Foul on Tulsa, 15 yards +1% TULN +0.5 pts
Q2 0:34 Holding on Tulane, 10 yards +1% TLSA +1.0 pts
Q3 14:42 False Start on Tulsa, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% TULN +1.5 pts
Q3 5:47 Personal Foul on Tulsa, 4 yards +1% TULN +1.0 pts
Q4 10:37 Pass Interference on Tulane, 11 yards, wiping out the play 0% TLSA +3.5 pts
Q4 10:31 False Start on Tulane, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% TLSA +0.5 pts
Q4 10:20 Face Mask on Tulsa, 15 yards 0% TULN +1.9 pts
Q4 9:30 Holding on Tulane, 10 yards 0% TLSA +1.2 pts
Q4 5:51 Holding on Tulane, 10 yards, wiping out the play 0% TLSA +3.0 pts
Q4 5:28 Holding on Tulane, 10 yards 0% TLSA +1.2 pts
Q4 2:27 Pass Interference on Tulane, 15 yards 0% TLSA +1.5 pts
Q4 1:56 Pass Interference on Tulane, 3 yards 0% TLSA +0.4 pts
Q4 1:49 Holding on Tulsa, 10 yards 0% TULN +0.6 pts

When it happened

Tulsa’s chance of winning

Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

Our in-game win probability: the score, the value of the possession and the time left, starting from the betting line. Overtime has no clock and is drawn at a fixed width. Shaded above the middle while Tulsa was ahead in it, below while Tulane was.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 13:40 Tulane converted 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 40% expected +2% TULN TULN: Touchdown
2 Q1 8:36 Tulsa converted 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 50% expected +2% TLSA TLSA: Punt
3 Q2 12:38 Tulane converted 4th & 43rd & 4th downs · 48% expected +4% TULN TULN: Touchdown
4 Q2 5:19 Tulane fumbled and recovered itFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +3% TULN TULN: Touchdown
5 Q2 4:49 Tulsa fumbled and Tulane recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +5% TULN TLSA: Turnover on downs
6 Q2 3:38 Tulane converted 3rd & 93rd & 4th downs · 31% expected +4% TULN TULN: Touchdown
7 Q2 2:13 Tulane converted 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 50% expected +3% TULN TULN: Field goal
8 Q2 0:54 Tulsa was stopped on 4th & 43rd & 4th downs · 42% expected +2% TULN TLSA: End of half

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Tulane 78% · Tulsa 22%

Final margin
Tulane by 17
Luck in points
12.2 for Tulane
Luck-adjusted margin
Tulane by 4.8
Replay with same day's form
Tulane 76% · Tulsa 24% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

None by default: our tests measured no carryover after a lucky break. Slide it up to count a break for more than its own swing. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.

Methodology and validation · All Week 5 2025 games · Tulane · Tulsa

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