Week 5 2025 · September 27, 2025
Memphis at Florida Atlantic, Week 5 2025: who deserved to win?
Memphis beat Florida Atlantic 55–26, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams actually played, Memphis wins 9 of 10.
Before kickoff Memphis was an 82% favorite.
Final
 Memphis Tigers | 55 |
|---|---|
 Florida Atlantic Owls | 26 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +6 Memphis about even · −6 Florida Atlantic
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Memphis wins 9, Florida Atlantic wins 1.
- 1 MEM 55 FAU 7
- 2 MEM 48 FAU 9
- 3 MEM 34 FAU 0
- 4 MEM 56 FAU 27
- 5 MEM 45 FAU 20
- 6 MEM 38 FAU 17
- 7 MEM 26 FAU 10
- 8 MEM 35 FAU 24
- 9 MEM 28 FAU 23
- 10 MEM 20 FAU 24
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
How 4,000 replays ended
Memphis wins 94% of them, Florida Atlantic 6%, counting the 1% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Memphis by 29.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Memphis by 17+ | 70.9% |
| Memphis by 9–16 | 13.9% |
| Memphis by 1–8 | 9.1% |
| Level after regulation | 1.5% |
| Florida Atlantic by 1–8 | 2.8% |
| Florida Atlantic by 9–16 | 1.3% |
| Florida Atlantic by 17+ | 0.6% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
The kicks
How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance), and what happened.
- G. Spetic, 52 yds made · 50% expected
- G. Smith, 27 yds made · 90% expected
- G. Smith, 29 yds made · 88% expected
- G. Spetic, 25 yds made · 91% expected
Penalties: Memphis 3 for 25 yards, Florida Atlantic 9 for 60 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 14:22 | Offside on Florida Atlantic, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% MEM +0.5 pts |
| Q1 11:16 | False Start on Florida Atlantic, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% MEM +0.9 pts |
| Q1 8:34 | False Start on Memphis, 5 yards · pre-snap | +2% FAU +1.4 pts |
| Q1 7:07 | Illegal Snap on Memphis, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% FAU +0.7 pts |
| Q2 9:50 | Ineligible Downfield on Florida Atlantic, 5 yards | +2% MEM +0.8 pts |
| Q2 4:26 | Personal Foul on Memphis, 15 yards | +5% FAU +1.6 pts |
| Q3 12:44 | False Start on Florida Atlantic, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% MEM +0.7 pts |
| Q3 0:54 | Pass Interference on Florida Atlantic, 15 yards | +2% MEM +1.2 pts |
| Q4 9:08 | Holding on Florida Atlantic, 10 yards, wiping out the play | +1% MEM +1.5 pts |
| Q4 2:59 | Personal Foul on Florida Atlantic, 10 yards | 0% MEM +1.3 pts |
| Q4 2:28 | Unsportsmanlike Conduct on Florida Atlantic, 5 yards | 0% MEM +1.7 pts |
| Q4 1:04 | Personal Foul on Florida Atlantic, 0 yards | 0% MEM 0.0 pts |
When it happened
Florida Atlantic’s chance of winning
Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q1 3:08 | G. Spetic made a 52-yard field goalKicks · 50% expected for him, 1 of 3 from 45+ before | +3% MEM | MEM: Punt |
| 2 | Q2 10:27 | Florida Atlantic converted 4th & 23rd & 4th downs · 63% expected | +4% FAU | FAU: Touchdown |
| 3 | Q2 5:42 | Memphis was stopped on 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 44% expected | +3% FAU | MEM: Turnover on downs |
| 4 | Q2 5:00 | Memphis was stopped on 4th & 63rd & 4th downs · 43% expected | +6% FAU | MEM: Touchdown |
| 5 | Q2 4:26 | Personal Foul on Memphis, 15 yardsJudgment calls | +5% FAU | FAU: Field goal |
| 6 | Q2 0:26 | Memphis converted 3rd & 123rd & 4th downs · 29% expected | +7% MEM | MEM: Touchdown |
| 7 | Q3 13:30 | Florida Atlantic converted 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 32% expected | +6% FAU | FAU: Punt |
| 8 | Q4 12:19 | Memphis fumbled and Florida Atlantic recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 | +3% FAU | MEM: Touchdown |
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Memphis 100% · Florida Atlantic 0%
- Final margin
- Memphis by 29
- Luck in points
- 1.9 for Florida Atlantic
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Memphis by 30.9
- Replay with same day's form
- Memphis 94% · Florida Atlantic 6% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.
Methodology and validation · All Week 5 2025 games · 
Memphis · 
Florida Atlantic
More from Week 5 2025
- South Alabama at North Texas UNT 36–22 · replay 72% for the winner
- Tulane at Tulsa TULN 31–14 · replay 76% for the winner
- Army at East Carolina ECU 28–6 · replay 91% for the winner
- Rice at Navy NAVY 21–13 · replay 99% for the winner
- Hawai'i at Air Force HAW 44–35 · replay 5% for the winner
- Louisville at Pittsburgh LOU 34–27 · replay 11% for the winner
- California at Boston College CAL 28–24 · replay 28% for the winner
- Marshall at Louisiana UL 54–51 · replay 29% for the winner
- Cincinnati at Kansas CIN 37–34 · replay 30% for the winner
- Houston at Oregon State HOU 27–24 · replay 34% for the winner
- Oregon at Penn State ORE 30–24 · replay 39% for the winner
- Georgia Tech at Wake Forest GT 30–29 · replay 40% for the winner