luckadjusted
CFB Week 4 · 2026

Week 2 2026 · September 12, 2026

UL Monroe at UAB, Week 2 2026: who deserved to win?

UAB beat UL Monroe 26–20, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams actually played, UAB wins 8 of 10. UL Monroe had the bounces: pre-snap flags alone were worth 13 points of win probability to UL Monroe.

Before kickoff UAB was a 73% favorite. The biggest swing (Q4, 6:58 left): Illegal Substitution on UAB, 5 yards, worth 10 points of win probability to UL Monroe.

Final

UL Monroe Warhawks 20
UAB Blazers 26

September 12, 2026 · Protective Stadium · Closing line: UAB −9.5

Luck index +19 UAB about even · −19 UL Monroe

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. UL Monroe wins 2, UAB wins 8.

  1. 1 ULM 20 UAB 7
  2. 2 ULM 17 UAB 13
  3. 3 ULM 11 UAB 13
  4. 4 ULM 16 UAB 21
  5. 5 ULM 0 UAB 10
  6. 6 ULM 10 UAB 21
  7. 7 ULM 10 UAB 24
  8. 8 ULM 3 UAB 21
  9. 9 ULM 0 UAB 23
  10. 10 ULM 10 UAB 38

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

UL Monroe wins 19% of them, UAB 81%, counting the 5% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: UAB by 6.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
UL Monroe by 17+2.0%
UL Monroe by 9–164.3%
UL Monroe by 1–811.4%
Level after regulation4.7%
UAB by 1–821.7%
UAB by 9–1623.8%
UAB by 17+32.2%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +7.4 points to UAB: the final margin was UAB by 6, without the luck UL Monroe by 1.4. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance), and what happened.

  • J. Delange, 41 yds made · 72% expected
  • A. Murray, 32 yds made · 84% expected
  • A. Murray, 24 yds made · 92% expected
  • J. Delange, 45 yds made · 65% expected
  • J. Delange, 34 yds made · 84% expected
  • J. Delange, 42 yds made · 71% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: UL Monroe 1 for 5 yards, UAB 7 for 52 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 5:57 Offside on UAB, 2 yards · pre-snap +2% ULM +0.9 pts
Q2 11:19 Offside on UAB, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% ULM +0.5 pts
Q2 5:25 False Start on UL Monroe, 5 yards · pre-snap +2% UAB +1.0 pts
Q2 1:56 Holding on UAB, 10 yards +4% ULM +1.2 pts
Q4 12:24 Holding on UAB, 10 yards +7% ULM +1.3 pts
Q4 9:04 Offside on UAB, 5 yards · pre-snap +2% ULM +0.5 pts
Q4 8:46 Personal Foul on UAB, 15 yards +8% ULM +1.6 pts
Q4 6:58 Illegal Substitution on UAB, 5 yards · pre-snap +10% ULM +1.7 pts

When it happened

UAB’s chance of winning

As low as 30% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

Our in-game win probability: the score, the value of the possession and the time left, starting from the betting line. Overtime has no clock and is drawn at a fixed width. Shaded above the middle while UAB was ahead in it, below while UL Monroe was.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 10:54 UAB was stopped on 4th & 43rd & 4th downs · 52% expected +4% ULM UAB: Field goal
2 Q1 5:09 UL Monroe converted 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 70% expected +5% ULM ULM: Touchdown
3 Q4 13:35 UAB was stopped on 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 33% expected +5% ULM UAB: Field goal
4 Q4 12:24 Holding on UAB, 10 yardsJudgment calls +7% ULM ULM: Turnover
5 Q4 10:14 UAB converted 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 37% expected +9% UAB UAB: Touchdown
6 Q4 8:46 Personal Foul on UAB, 15 yardsJudgment calls +8% ULM ULM: Turnover
7 Q4 6:58 Illegal Substitution on UAB, 5 yardsPre-snap flags +10% ULM ULM: Turnover
8 Q4 0:35 UL Monroe converted 3rd & 123rd & 4th downs · 22% expected +6% ULM ULM: Turnover on downs

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

UL Monroe 58% · UAB 42%

Final margin
UAB by 6
Luck in points
7.4 for UAB
Luck-adjusted margin
UL Monroe by 1.4
Replay with same day's form
UL Monroe 19% · UAB 81% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

None by default: our tests measured no carryover after a lucky break. Slide it up to count a break for more than its own swing. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.

Methodology and validation · All Week 2 2026 games · UL Monroe · UAB

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