Week 12 2025 · November 15, 2025
South Alabama at UL Monroe, Week 12 2025: who deserved to win?
South Alabama beat UL Monroe 26–14, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams actually played, South Alabama wins 9 of 10. UL Monroe had the bounces: fumble bounces alone were worth 9 points of win probability to UL Monroe.
Before kickoff South Alabama was a 60% favorite. The biggest swing (Q1, 5:42 left): Return touchdown by UL Monroe, worth 28 points of win probability to UL Monroe.
Final
 South Alabama Jaguars | 26 |
|---|---|
 UL Monroe Warhawks | 14 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +10 South Alabama about even · −10 UL Monroe
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. South Alabama wins 9, UL Monroe wins 1.
- 1 USA 50 ULM 14
- 2 USA 32 ULM 3
- 3 USA 35 ULM 10
- 4 USA 28 ULM 6
- 5 USA 29 ULM 10
- 6 USA 26 ULM 10
- 7 USA 17 ULM 5
- 8 USA 17 ULM 9
- 9 USA 10 ULM 7
- 10 USA 10 ULM 16
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
How 4,000 replays ended
South Alabama wins 90% of them, UL Monroe 10%, counting the 1% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: South Alabama by 12.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| South Alabama by 17+ | 53.1% |
| South Alabama by 9–16 | 22.0% |
| South Alabama by 1–8 | 14.8% |
| Level after regulation | 0.7% |
| UL Monroe by 1–8 | 6.7% |
| UL Monroe by 9–16 | 2.2% |
| UL Monroe by 17+ | 0.5% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
Penalties: South Alabama 6 for 55 yards, UL Monroe 8 for 101 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 4:05 | Delay of Game on South Alabama, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% ULM +0.7 pts |
| Q1 3:09 | Personal Foul on South Alabama, 15 yards | +2% ULM +0.9 pts |
| Q1 2:15 | Holding on UL Monroe, 10 yards | +4% USA +2.2 pts |
| Q2 15:00 | Horse Collar Tackle on UL Monroe, 16 yards | +5% USA +2.8 pts |
| Q2 14:16 | Holding on UL Monroe, 10 yards | +1% USA +0.3 pts |
| Q2 9:31 | False Start on South Alabama, 5 yards · pre-snap | +2% ULM +0.6 pts |
| Q2 9:24 | Holding on South Alabama, 10 yards | +2% ULM +0.6 pts |
| Q2 4:35 | Holding on UL Monroe, 10 yards | +2% USA +0.9 pts |
| Q2 0:25 | Holding on UL Monroe, 10 yards | +1% USA +0.4 pts |
| Q3 10:02 | Pass Interference on South Alabama, 15 yards | +4% ULM +1.3 pts |
| Q3 8:58 | Unnecessary Roughness on UL Monroe, 15 yards | +3% USA +0.9 pts |
| Q3 7:42 | Personal Foul on UL Monroe, 15 yards | +4% USA +1.3 pts |
| Q3 4:23 | Personal Foul on UL Monroe, 15 yards | +3% USA +0.9 pts |
| Q4 5:58 | Delay of Game on South Alabama, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% ULM +0.3 pts |
When it happened
UL Monroe’s chance of winning
As low as 0% and as high as 78%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q1 12:04 | South Alabama converted 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 39% expected | +4% USA | USA: Punt |
| 2 | Q1 5:42 | South Alabama fumbled and UL Monroe recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50Return touchdown by UL MonroeSpecial teams | +28% ULM | USA: Punt |
| 3 | Q2 15:00 | Horse Collar Tackle on UL Monroe, 16 yardsJudgment calls | +5% USA | USA: Touchdown |
| 4 | Q2 6:20 | UL Monroe converted 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 32% expected | +5% ULM | ULM: Turnover on downs |
| 5 | Q3 11:36 | South Alabama converted 3rd & 133rd & 4th downs · 23% expected | +9% USA | USA: Touchdown |
| 6 | Q3 10:02 | Pass Interference on South Alabama, 15 yardsJudgment calls | +4% ULM | ULM: Punt |
| 7 | Q3 8:58 | UL Monroe was stopped on 3rd & 203rd & 4th downs · 14% expectedUnnecessary Roughness on UL Monroe, 15 yardsJudgment calls | +4% USA | ULM: Punt |
| 8 | Q3 6:31 | South Alabama converted 3rd & 93rd & 4th downs · 30% expected | +6% USA | USA: Touchdown |
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
South Alabama 92% · UL Monroe 8%
- Final margin
- South Alabama by 12
- Luck in points
- 4.5 for South Alabama
- Luck-adjusted margin
- South Alabama by 7.5
- Replay with same day's form
- South Alabama 90% · UL Monroe 10% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.
Methodology and validation · All Week 12 2025 games · 
South Alabama · 
UL Monroe
More from Week 12 2025
- Coastal Carolina at Georgia Southern GASO 45–40 · replay 82% for the winner
- Marshall at Georgia State MRSH 30–18 · replay 93% for the winner
- Texas State at Southern Miss TXST 41–14 · replay 97% for the winner
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- Troy at Old Dominion ODU 33–0 · replay 100% for the winner
- Kansas State at Oklahoma State KSU 14–6 · replay 7% for the winner
- Oklahoma at Alabama OU 23–21 · replay 12% for the winner
- Clemson at Louisville CLEM 20–19 · replay 19% for the winner
- Iowa at USC USC 26–21 · replay 36% for the winner
- South Florida at Navy NAVY 41–38 · replay 38% for the winner
- Kent State at Akron KENT 42–35 · replay 43% for the winner
- Delaware vs Sam Houston SHSU 26–23 · replay 46% for the winner