luckadjusted
CFB Week 4 · 2026

Week 12 2025 · November 13, 2025

Troy at Old Dominion, Week 12 2025: who deserved to win?

Old Dominion beat Troy 33–0, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams actually played, Old Dominion wins 10 of 10.

Before kickoff Old Dominion was a 73% favorite.

Final

Troy Trojans 0
Old Dominion Monarchs 33

November 13, 2025 · S.B. Ballard Stadium · Closing line: Old Dominion −9.5

Luck index 0 Old Dominion about even · 0 Troy

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Troy wins 0, Old Dominion wins 10.

  1. 1 TROY 7 ODU 22
  2. 2 TROY 6 ODU 30
  3. 3 TROY 0 ODU 28
  4. 4 TROY 0 ODU 33
  5. 5 TROY 7 ODU 42
  6. 6 TROY 0 ODU 38
  7. 7 TROY 0 ODU 42
  8. 8 TROY 3 ODU 48
  9. 9 TROY 0 ODU 51
  10. 10 TROY 3 ODU 62

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Troy wins 0% of them, Old Dominion 100%. The line is what actually happened: Old Dominion by 33.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Troy by 17+0.0%
Troy by 9–160.0%
Troy by 1–80.1%
Level after regulation0.0%
Old Dominion by 1–80.4%
Old Dominion by 9–161.9%
Old Dominion by 17+97.6%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +0.7 points to Troy: the final margin was Old Dominion by 33, without the luck Old Dominion by 33.7. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance), and what happened.

  • N. Eichner, 32 yds made · 84% expected
  • N. Eichner, 28 yds made · 89% expected
  • S. Renfroe, 39 yds missed · 75% expected
  • N. Eichner, 47 yds missed · 60% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Troy 4 for 35 yards, Old Dominion 6 for 61 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 6:40 Personal Foul on Old Dominion, 15 yards +1% TROY +0.9 pts
Q2 15:00 False Start on Old Dominion, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% TROY +0.7 pts
Q2 5:49 Illegal Block on Troy, 10 yards 0% ODU +0.6 pts
Q2 5:49 Offside on Old Dominion, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% TROY +0.7 pts
Q2 2:52 False Start on Troy, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% ODU +0.4 pts
Q2 0:52 Holding on Old Dominion, 6 yards, wiping out the play 0% TROY +0.9 pts
Q3 6:11 Personal Foul on Troy, 15 yards 0% ODU +1.0 pts
Q3 0:52 Unnecessary Roughness on Old Dominion, 15 yards 0% TROY +3.2 pts
Q4 12:25 Kick Catch Interference on Old Dominion, 15 yards 0% TROY +0.9 pts
Q4 12:25 False Start on Troy, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% ODU +0.7 pts

When it happened

Old Dominion’s chance of winning

Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

Our in-game win probability: the score, the value of the possession and the time left, starting from the betting line. Overtime has no clock and is drawn at a fixed width. Shaded above the middle while Old Dominion was ahead in it, below while Troy was.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 15:00 Old Dominion was stopped on 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 59% expected +3% TROY ODU: Turnover on downs
2 Q1 11:24 Old Dominion was stopped on 4th & 33rd & 4th downs · 57% expected +4% TROY ODU: Touchdown
3 Q1 11:14 Old Dominion converted 3rd & 13rd & 4th downs · 80% expectedTroy fumbled and Old Dominion recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +4% ODU ODU: Touchdown
4 Q1 9:33 Troy was stopped on 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 35% expectedTroy fumbled and recovered itFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +1% TROY TROY: Punt
5 Q1 6:40 Old Dominion was stopped on 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 42% expectedPersonal Foul on Old Dominion, 15 yardsJudgment calls +1% TROY ODU: Field goal
6 Q1 3:34 N. Eichner made a 32-yard field goalKicks · 84% expected for him +1% TROY ODU: Field goal
7 Q1 0:03 Troy was stopped on 4th & 43rd & 4th downs · 43% expected +3% ODU TROY: Punt
8 Q2 12:45 Old Dominion converted 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 31% expectedOld Dominion was stopped on 3rd & 13rd & 4th downs · 74% expectedOld Dominion fumbled and recovered itFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +2% ODU ODU: Field goal

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Troy 0% · Old Dominion 100%

Final margin
Old Dominion by 33
Luck in points
0.7 for Troy
Luck-adjusted margin
Old Dominion by 33.7
Replay with same day's form
Troy 0% · Old Dominion 100% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

None by default: our tests measured no carryover after a lucky break. Slide it up to count a break for more than its own swing. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.

Methodology and validation · All Week 12 2025 games · Troy · Old Dominion

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