Week 12 2025 · November 15, 2025
Texas State at Southern Miss, Week 12 2025: who deserved to win?
Texas State beat Southern Miss 41–14, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams actually played, Texas State wins 10 of 10.
An off day for Southern Miss: its offense and defense both played far below their usual level. In a fresh game against Texas State it would win 41% of the time; with this day’s form, 3%. The numbers
Before kickoff Southern Miss was a 58% favorite.
Final
 Texas State Bobcats | 41 |
|---|---|
 Southern Miss Golden Eagles | 14 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +3 Texas State about even · −3 Southern Miss
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Texas State wins 10, Southern Miss wins 0.
- 1 TXST 54 USM 10
- 2 TXST 52 USM 17
- 3 TXST 31 USM 0
- 4 TXST 52 USM 24
- 5 TXST 31 USM 6
- 6 TXST 38 USM 16
- 7 TXST 20 USM 0
- 8 TXST 30 USM 14
- 9 TXST 21 USM 9
- 10 TXST 30 USM 24
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
An off day for Southern Miss
Its offense and defense both played far below their usual level. In a fresh game against Texas State it would win 41% of the time; with this day’s form, 3%.
Same teams, fresh game
Replay with same day's form
37 points apart for Southern Miss: the gap is how differently this game went from what the two teams usually are.
| Unit | This game | Usual level | Better or worse than usual |
|---|---|---|---|
| Texas State offenseEPA per play gained | +0.53 | +0.17 | better by 0.36 |
| Texas State defenseEPA per play allowed | −0.05 | +0.12 | better by 0.17 |
| Southern Miss offenseEPA per play gained | −0.05 | +0.06 | worse by 0.11 |
| Southern Miss defenseEPA per play allowed | +0.53 | +0.12 | worse by 0.40 |
EPA (expected points added) per play on competitive snaps, turnovers left out because they are valued as luck. Usual level: the team’s earlier games this season plus half of last season, pulled toward the league average. One team’s defense and the other team’s offense are the same snaps, so one game can’t fully say whose day it was; it shows how far this one was from both teams’ norms.
How 4,000 replays ended
Texas State wins 97% of them, Southern Miss 3%, counting the 1% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Texas State by 27.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Texas State by 17+ | 74.5% |
| Texas State by 9–16 | 13.7% |
| Texas State by 1–8 | 7.6% |
| Level after regulation | 1.1% |
| Southern Miss by 1–8 | 2.2% |
| Southern Miss by 9–16 | 0.6% |
| Southern Miss by 17+ | 0.2% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
The kicks
How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance), and what happened.
- T. Robles, 29 yds made · 89% expected
- T. Robles, 50 yds made · 56% expected
Penalties: Texas State 4 for 36 yards, Southern Miss 5 for 36 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 2:07 | Holding on Southern Miss, 10 yards | +1% TXST +0.6 pts |
| Q2 8:42 | False Start on Southern Miss, 5 yards · pre-snap | +3% TXST +1.4 pts |
| Q2 6:03 | Holding on Texas State, 10 yards | 0% USM +0.7 pts |
| Q2 3:00 | Face Mask on Southern Miss, 6 yards | +1% TXST +1.1 pts |
| Q3 13:25 | Illegal Block on Texas State, 10 yards | 0% USM +0.6 pts |
| Q3 9:14 | Holding on Texas State, 11 yards | 0% USM +1.4 pts |
| Q3 7:43 | False Start on Texas State, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% USM +0.6 pts |
| Q3 5:47 | False Start on Southern Miss, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% TXST +0.5 pts |
| Q3 5:24 | Holding on Southern Miss, 10 yards | 0% TXST +0.6 pts |
When it happened
Southern Miss’s chance of winning
As low as 0% and as high as 60%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q1 12:01 | Texas State was stopped on 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 48% expected | +3% TXST | TXST: Field goal |
| 2 | Q1 10:46 | Texas State was stopped on 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 52% expected | +3% USM | TXST: Field goal |
| 3 | Q1 2:16 | Texas State converted 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 51% expected | +4% TXST | TXST: Field goal |
| 4 | Q1 1:08 | Southern Miss converted 3rd & 123rd & 4th downs · 24% expected | +6% USM | USM: Punt |
| 5 | Q1 0:19 | Southern Miss was stopped on 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 38% expected | +3% TXST | USM: Punt |
| 6 | Q2 14:14 | Texas State converted 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 53% expected | +3% TXST | TXST: Field goal |
| 7 | Q2 10:44 | Texas State was stopped on 3rd & 153rd & 4th downs · 25% expected | +2% USM | TXST: Field goal |
| 8 | Q2 8:42 | False Start on Southern Miss, 5 yardsPre-snap flags | +3% TXST | TXST: Touchdown |
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Texas State 100% · Southern Miss 0%
- Final margin
- Texas State by 27
- Luck in points
- 1.7 for Texas State
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Texas State by 25.3
- Replay with same day's form
- Texas State 97% · Southern Miss 3% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.
Methodology and validation · All Week 12 2025 games · 
Texas State · 
Southern Miss
More from Week 12 2025
- Coastal Carolina at Georgia Southern GASO 45–40 · replay 82% for the winner
- South Alabama at UL Monroe USA 26–14 · replay 90% for the winner
- Marshall at Georgia State MRSH 30–18 · replay 93% for the winner
- App State at James Madison JMU 58–10 · replay 99% for the winner
- Troy at Old Dominion ODU 33–0 · replay 100% for the winner
- Kansas State at Oklahoma State KSU 14–6 · replay 7% for the winner
- Oklahoma at Alabama OU 23–21 · replay 12% for the winner
- Clemson at Louisville CLEM 20–19 · replay 19% for the winner
- Iowa at USC USC 26–21 · replay 36% for the winner
- South Florida at Navy NAVY 41–38 · replay 38% for the winner
- Kent State at Akron KENT 42–35 · replay 43% for the winner
- Delaware vs Sam Houston SHSU 26–23 · replay 46% for the winner