App State at James Madison, Week 12 2025: who deserved it?

Final

App State Mountaineers	10
James Madison Dukes	58

November 15, 2025 · Bridgeforth Stadium · Closing line: James Madison −21

Replay with same day's form

Luck index +1 James Madison about even · −1 App State

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. App State wins 0, James Madison wins 10.

1 APP 7 JMU 13
2 APP 3 JMU 19
3 APP 17 JMU 37
4 APP 14 JMU 38
5 APP 10 JMU 37
6 APP 7 JMU 38
7 APP 0 JMU 34
8 APP 9 JMU 47
9 APP 3 JMU 45
10 APP 3 JMU 54

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

Before kickoff

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

Same teams, fresh game

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

App State wins 1% of them, James Madison 99%. The line is what actually happened: James Madison by 48.

Actual: James Madison by 48 494235282114707142128354249 ← App State win by James Madison win by →

Show as a table

Final margin in the replays	Share of replays
App State by 17+	0.1%
App State by 9–16	0.1%
App State by 1–8	0.6%
Level after regulation	0.2%
James Madison by 1–8	2.9%
James Madison by 9–16	6.4%
James Madison by 17+	89.7%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Fumble bounces +1% APP

3rd & 4th downs +1% JMU

Kicks +1% JMU

All luck +0% JMU

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +7.7 points to James Madison: the final margin was James Madison by 48, without the luck James Madison by 40.3. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance), and what happened.

M. Suarez, 42 yds made · 67% expected
M. Suarez, 38 yds made · 74% expected
M. Suarez, 26 yds made · 89% expected
D. De Freitas, 48 yds made · 58% expected

Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: App State 6 for 57 yards, James Madison 7 for 74 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued

When	Flag	Win probability for
Q2 14:54	Horse Collar Tackle on App State, 15 yards	+1% JMU +1.6 pts
Q2 7:39	Personal Foul on James Madison, 15 yards	0% APP +1.1 pts
Q2 5:49	False Start on App State, 5 yards · pre-snap	0% JMU +0.8 pts
Q3 11:52	Personal Foul on James Madison, 14 yards	0% APP +0.9 pts
Q3 8:30	Offside on App State, 5 yards · pre-snap	0% JMU +0.8 pts
Q3 4:10	Delay of Game on James Madison, 5 yards · pre-snap	0% APP +0.1 pts
Q4 14:53	Personal Foul on App State, 12 yards	0% JMU +1.5 pts
Q4 12:44	Roughing the Passer on James Madison, 15 yards, wiping out the play	0% APP +5.3 pts
Q4 10:11	False Start on James Madison, 5 yards · pre-snap	0% APP +0.8 pts
Q4 8:09	Delay of Game on James Madison, 5 yards · pre-snap	0% APP +0.6 pts
Q4 7:47	Personal Foul on James Madison, 15 yards	0% APP +0.9 pts
Q4 7:15	Personal Foul on App State, 15 yards	0% JMU +2.5 pts
Q4 4:12	Ineligible Downfield on App State, 5 yards	0% JMU +1.2 pts

When it happened

James Madison’s chance of winning

Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

James Madison 50% App State Q1Q2Q3Q4 1234568

Our in-game win probability: the score, the value of the possession and the time left, starting from the betting line. Overtime has no clock and is drawn at a fixed width. Shaded above the middle while James Madison was ahead in it, below while App State was.

#	When	What happened	Win probability for	Next drive
1	Q1 13:43	James Madison was stopped on 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 33% expected	+1% APP	JMU: Punt
2	Q1 11:26	James Madison converted 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 40% expected	+1% JMU	JMU: Turnover
3	Q1 8:52	James Madison converted 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 41% expected	+2% APP	JMU: Touchdown
4	Q1 4:59	James Madison was stopped on 3rd & 123rd & 4th downs · 30% expected	+1% APP	JMU: Punt
5	Q1 2:42	App State fumbled and recovered itFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50	+1% APP	APP: Punt
6	Q1 0:38	James Madison converted 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 38% expected	+1% JMU	JMU: Field goal
7	Q2 14:54	Horse Collar Tackle on App State, 15 yardsJudgment calls	+1% JMU	JMU: Field goal
8	Q2 12:32	James Madison converted 4th & 23rd & 4th downs · 69% expected	+1% JMU	JMU: Field goal

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.

Methodology and validation · All Week 12 2025 games · App State · James Madison

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