Week 12 2025 · November 15, 2025
Coastal Carolina at Georgia Southern, Week 12 2025: who deserved to win?
Georgia Southern beat Coastal Carolina 45–40, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams actually played, Georgia Southern wins 8 of 10.
Before kickoff Georgia Southern was a 58% favorite. The biggest swing (Q4, 2:59 left): Georgia Southern converted 3rd & 12, worth 9 points of win probability to Georgia Southern.
Final
 Coastal Carolina Chanticleers | 40 |
|---|---|
 Georgia Southern Eagles | 45 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +18 Georgia Southern about even · −18 Coastal Carolina
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Coastal Carolina wins 2, Georgia Southern wins 8.
- 1 CCU 45 GASO 28
- 2 CCU 35 GASO 32
- 3 CCU 24 GASO 27
- 4 CCU 38 GASO 44
- 5 CCU 31 GASO 41
- 6 CCU 17 GASO 31
- 7 CCU 20 GASO 37
- 8 CCU 21 GASO 44
- 9 CCU 21 GASO 50
- 10 CCU 10 GASO 52
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
How 4,000 replays ended
Coastal Carolina wins 18% of them, Georgia Southern 82%, counting the 1% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Georgia Southern by 5.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Coastal Carolina by 17+ | 3.6% |
| Coastal Carolina by 9–16 | 4.7% |
| Coastal Carolina by 1–8 | 8.6% |
| Level after regulation | 1.5% |
| Georgia Southern by 1–8 | 14.0% |
| Georgia Southern by 9–16 | 18.9% |
| Georgia Southern by 17+ | 48.8% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
The kicks
How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance), and what happened.
- K. Afrookhteh, 41 yds made · 73% expected
- P. Laforge, 51 yds made · 52% expected
- K. Afrookhteh, 34 yds blocked · 85% expected
- T. Bryant, 29 yds made · 88% expected
Penalties: Coastal Carolina 13 for 76 yards, Georgia Southern 8 for 83 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 15:00 | Unsportsmanlike Conduct on Georgia Southern, 12 yards | +3% CCU +1.7 pts |
| Q1 15:00 | Unsportsmanlike Conduct on Georgia Southern, 6 yards | +4% GASO +2.1 pts |
| Q1 15:00 | Unsportsmanlike Conduct on Georgia Southern, 12 yards | +2% CCU +0.9 pts |
| Q1 15:00 | Offside on Coastal Carolina, 5 yards · pre-snap | +2% GASO +0.9 pts |
| Q1 13:07 | False Start on Coastal Carolina, 5 yards · pre-snap | +2% GASO +0.8 pts |
| Q1 11:12 | Pass Interference on Coastal Carolina, 8 yards | +3% GASO +1.7 pts |
| Q1 11:09 | Offside on Coastal Carolina, 1 yard · pre-snap | 0% GASO +0.3 pts |
| Q1 8:45 | Offside on Coastal Carolina, 4 yards · pre-snap | +2% GASO +0.9 pts |
| Q1 6:53 | Pass Interference on Coastal Carolina, 15 yards | +4% GASO +2.2 pts |
| Q1 4:23 | Pass Interference on Georgia Southern, 15 yards | +5% CCU +2.5 pts |
| Q1 4:06 | Offside on Coastal Carolina, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% GASO +0.3 pts |
| Q1 3:53 | Holding on Coastal Carolina, 8 yards | +1% GASO +0.5 pts |
| Q2 8:04 | False Start on Coastal Carolina, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% GASO +0.5 pts |
| Q2 3:17 | Personal Foul on Georgia Southern, 13 yards | +2% CCU +0.8 pts |
| Q2 0:17 | Offside on Coastal Carolina, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% GASO +0.2 pts |
| Q3 7:51 | Holding on Georgia Southern, 10 yards | +1% CCU +0.6 pts |
| Q3 7:10 | Offside on Coastal Carolina, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% GASO +0.2 pts |
| Q3 5:58 | Ineligible Downfield on Georgia Southern, 5 yards | 0% CCU +0.5 pts |
| Q4 12:51 | False Start on Coastal Carolina, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% GASO +0.6 pts |
| Q4 5:55 | Holding on Georgia Southern, 10 yards, wiping out the play | +6% CCU +1.7 pts |
| Q4 4:00 | Delay of Game on Coastal Carolina, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% GASO +0.2 pts |
When it happened
Georgia Southern’s chance of winning
Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q1 4:23 | Pass Interference on Georgia Southern, 15 yardsJudgment calls | +5% CCU | CCU: Touchdown |
| 2 | Q2 14:23 | Georgia Southern converted 3rd & 143rd & 4th downs · 27% expected | +6% GASO | GASO: Touchdown |
| 3 | Q3 4:17 | Coastal Carolina converted 3rd & 113rd & 4th downs · 31% expected | +7% CCU | CCU: Missed field goal |
| 4 | Q3 2:37 | K. Afrookhteh had a 34-yard field goal blockedKicks · 85% expected for him | +8% GASO | CCU: Touchdown |
| 5 | Q4 6:33 | Coastal Carolina was stopped on 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 41% expected | +5% GASO | CCU: Punt |
| 6 | Q4 5:55 | Holding on Georgia Southern, 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls | +6% CCU | CCU: Punt |
| 7 | Q4 4:00 | Coastal Carolina was stopped on 3rd & 133rd & 4th downs · 28% expectedDelay of Game on Coastal Carolina, 5 yardsPre-snap flags | +5% GASO | CCU: Punt |
| 8 | Q4 2:59 | Georgia Southern converted 3rd & 123rd & 4th downs · 30% expected | +9% GASO | GASO: End of game |
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Coastal Carolina 39% · Georgia Southern 61%
- Final margin
- Georgia Southern by 5
- Luck in points
- 2.8 for Georgia Southern
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Georgia Southern by 2.2
- Replay with same day's form
- Coastal Carolina 18% · Georgia Southern 82% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.
Methodology and validation · All Week 12 2025 games · 
Coastal Carolina · 
Georgia Southern
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