Week 12 2025 · November 15, 2025
Marshall at Georgia State, Week 12 2025: who deserved to win?
Marshall beat Georgia State 30–18, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams actually played, Marshall wins 9 of 10. Georgia State had the bounces: 3rd & 4th downs alone were worth 12 points of win probability to Georgia State.
Before kickoff Marshall was a 73% favorite.
Final
 Marshall Thundering Herd | 30 |
|---|---|
 Georgia State Panthers | 18 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +7 Marshall about even · −7 Georgia State
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Marshall wins 9, Georgia State wins 1.
- 1 MRSH 57 GAST 14
- 2 MRSH 34 GAST 0
- 3 MRSH 45 GAST 17
- 4 MRSH 45 GAST 21
- 5 MRSH 38 GAST 17
- 6 MRSH 41 GAST 24
- 7 MRSH 31 GAST 17
- 8 MRSH 45 GAST 35
- 9 MRSH 35 GAST 31
- 10 MRSH 23 GAST 28
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
How 4,000 replays ended
Marshall wins 93% of them, Georgia State 7%, counting the 2% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Marshall by 12.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Marshall by 17+ | 65.8% |
| Marshall by 9–16 | 16.6% |
| Marshall by 1–8 | 10.3% |
| Level after regulation | 1.8% |
| Georgia State by 1–8 | 3.7% |
| Georgia State by 9–16 | 1.2% |
| Georgia State by 17+ | 0.5% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
The kicks
How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance), and what happened.
- B. McAlister, 60 yds made · 37% expected
- L. Quinn, 30 yds made · 88% expected
Penalties: Marshall 7 for 56 yards, Georgia State 3 for 15 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 12:10 | Offside on Georgia State, 5 yards · pre-snap | +2% MRSH +1.3 pts |
| Q2 14:18 | Holding on Marshall, 6 yards | +1% GAST +0.4 pts |
| Q2 14:12 | Offside on Georgia State, 5 yards · pre-snap | +2% MRSH +1.0 pts |
| Q2 8:22 | False Start on Marshall, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% GAST +0.5 pts |
| Q2 1:37 | Holding on Marshall, 10 yards | +1% GAST +0.7 pts |
| Q2 0:17 | Offside on Marshall, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% GAST +1.0 pts |
| Q3 5:39 | Pass Interference on Marshall, 15 yards | +4% GAST +1.7 pts |
| Q3 1:35 | Holding on Marshall, 10 yards | +4% GAST +1.5 pts |
| Q4 3:43 | Illegal Substitution on Marshall, 5 yards, wiping out the play · pre-snap | +2% GAST +3.2 pts |
| Q4 1:15 | False Start on Georgia State, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% MRSH +0.2 pts |
When it happened
Georgia State’s chance of winning
As low as 0% and as high as 54%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q1 7:56 | Georgia State converted 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 37% expected | +5% GAST | GAST: Turnover |
| 2 | Q1 6:31 | Georgia State converted 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 31% expected | +6% GAST | GAST: Turnover |
| 3 | Q1 4:47 | Georgia State converted 4th & 33rd & 4th downs · 52% expected | +6% GAST | GAST: Turnover |
| 4 | Q1 2:37 | Marshall converted 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 36% expected | +4% MRSH | MRSH: Touchdown |
| 5 | Q2 5:30 | Marshall converted 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 39% expected | +4% MRSH | MRSH: Touchdown |
| 6 | Q3 5:39 | Pass Interference on Marshall, 15 yardsJudgment calls | +4% GAST | GAST: Touchdown |
| 7 | Q4 12:26 | Georgia State converted 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 47% expected | +5% GAST | GAST: Punt |
| 8 | Q4 8:56 | Marshall converted 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 52% expected | +5% MRSH | MRSH: Touchdown |
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Marshall 100% · Georgia State 0%
- Final margin
- Marshall by 12
- Luck in points
- 13.6 for Georgia State
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Marshall by 25.6
- Replay with same day's form
- Marshall 93% · Georgia State 7% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.
Methodology and validation · All Week 12 2025 games · 
Marshall · 
Georgia State
More from Week 12 2025
- Coastal Carolina at Georgia Southern GASO 45–40 · replay 82% for the winner
- South Alabama at UL Monroe USA 26–14 · replay 90% for the winner
- Texas State at Southern Miss TXST 41–14 · replay 97% for the winner
- App State at James Madison JMU 58–10 · replay 99% for the winner
- Troy at Old Dominion ODU 33–0 · replay 100% for the winner
- Kansas State at Oklahoma State KSU 14–6 · replay 7% for the winner
- Oklahoma at Alabama OU 23–21 · replay 12% for the winner
- Clemson at Louisville CLEM 20–19 · replay 19% for the winner
- Iowa at USC USC 26–21 · replay 36% for the winner
- South Florida at Navy NAVY 41–38 · replay 38% for the winner
- Kent State at Akron KENT 42–35 · replay 43% for the winner
- Delaware vs Sam Houston SHSU 26–23 · replay 46% for the winner