College football · Week 9 2026 · Saturday, October 31
Coastal Carolina vs Georgia State prediction and pick
Our Coastal Carolina Chanticleers at Georgia State Panthers pick: Georgia State by 9.2, 71% to win. The forecast rates every team against the opponents it has played, this season and last, and adds home field. No betting information goes in.
An early look, 5 weeks ahead: it sharpens as the game comes up. Updated every day until kickoff, then frozen and scored. After the game this page shows who deserved to win.
Why the curves are so wide: luck. Even with both teams’ strength known exactly, one game’s bounces, kicks, calls and sequencing move the final margin by about ±12.1 points (one standard deviation, measured from every play since 2019). These forecasts carry ±16.8, so about 52% of the width is that luck; the rest is what nobody knows yet about the teams. That is why a 7-point favorite still loses about 3 times in 10.
Sat, Oct 31, time to be announced · Center Parc Stadium
Georgia State by 9.2 · 71% to win
Ours: Georgia State by 9.2Coastal Carolina win 29%Georgia State win 71%5649423528211470714212835424956← Coastal Carolina win byGeorgia State win by →P50P90P95
Show as a table
Outcome
Chance
Coastal Carolina win
29.1%
Georgia State win
70.9%
Middle 50%: Coastal Carolina by 3 to Georgia State by 21
50%
Middle 90%: Coastal Carolina by 18 to Georgia State by 37
90%
Middle 95%: Coastal Carolina by 24 to Georgia State by 42
95%
Exactly Georgia State by 3
6.2%
Exactly Georgia State by 7
5.3%
Exactly Coastal Carolina by 3
5.1%
Exactly Georgia State by 14
4.0%
Exactly Georgia State by 17
3.7%
P50
Half of games like this end between Coastal Carolina by 3 and Georgia State by 21.
P90
9 in 10 between Coastal Carolina by 18 and Georgia State by 37.
P95
19 in 20 between Coastal Carolina by 24 and Georgia State by 42.
Coin-flip wins: the wins each team’s games were worth with only the kicks, bounces, drops and calls re-rolled, the record adjusted for luck. Luck in wins: actual wins minus what the play was worth.
Coastal Carolina vs Georgia State: questions and answers
Who will win Coastal Carolina vs Georgia State?
Our forecast picks Georgia State, with 71% to win; Coastal Carolina win 29% of the time.
What’s the spread for Coastal Carolina vs Georgia State?
Our spread: Georgia State −9.2. The betting line isn’t out yet. Ours uses no betting information, so where the two differ is where our read of the teams differs from the market’s.
When is Coastal Carolina vs Georgia State?
Saturday, October 31, 2026 (kickoff time to be announced), at Center Parc Stadium.
Coastal Carolina at 
Georgia State
