College football · Week 13 2026 · Saturday, November 28
Coastal Carolina vs James Madison prediction and pick
Our Coastal Carolina Chanticleers at James Madison Dukes pick: James Madison by 25.3, 93% to win. The forecast rates every team against the opponents it has played, this season and last, and adds home field. No betting information goes in.
An early look, 9 weeks ahead: it sharpens as the game comes up. Updated every day until kickoff, then frozen and scored. After the game this page shows who deserved to win.
Why the curves are so wide: luck. Even with both teams’ strength known exactly, one game’s bounces, kicks, calls and sequencing move the final margin by about ±12.1 points (one standard deviation, measured from every play since 2019). These forecasts carry ±17.1, so about 50% of the width is that luck; the rest is what nobody knows yet about the teams. That is why a 7-point favorite still loses about 3 times in 10.
Sat, Nov 28, time to be announced · Bridgeforth Stadium
James Madison by 25.3 · 93% to win
Ours: James Madison by 25.3Coastal Carolina win 7%James Madison win 93%5649423528211470714212835424956← Coastal Carolina win byJames Madison win by →P50P90P95
Show as a table
Outcome
Chance
Coastal Carolina win
6.8%
James Madison win
93.2%
Middle 50%: James Madison by 14 to James Madison by 37
50%
Middle 90%: Coastal Carolina by 3 to James Madison by 53
90%
Middle 95%: Coastal Carolina by 8 to James Madison by 59
95%
Exactly James Madison by 28
4.3%
Exactly James Madison by 56
4.1%
Exactly James Madison by 21
4.0%
Exactly James Madison by 17
3.6%
Exactly James Madison by 14
3.3%
P50
Half of games like this end between James Madison by 14 and James Madison by 37.
P90
9 in 10 between Coastal Carolina by 3 and James Madison by 53.
P95
19 in 20 between Coastal Carolina by 8 and James Madison by 59.
Coin-flip wins: the wins each team’s games were worth with only the kicks, bounces, drops and calls re-rolled, the record adjusted for luck. Luck in wins: actual wins minus what the play was worth.
Coastal Carolina vs James Madison: questions and answers
Who will win Coastal Carolina vs James Madison?
Our forecast picks James Madison, with 93% to win; Coastal Carolina win 7% of the time.
What’s the spread for Coastal Carolina vs James Madison?
Our spread: James Madison −25.3. The betting line isn’t out yet. Ours uses no betting information, so where the two differ is where our read of the teams differs from the market’s.
When is Coastal Carolina vs James Madison?
Saturday, November 28, 2026 (kickoff time to be announced), at Bridgeforth Stadium.
Coastal Carolina at 
James Madison
