Week 8 2025 · October 18, 2025
Coastal Carolina at App State, Week 8 2025: who deserved to win?
Coastal Carolina beat App State 45–37, and the replays lean its way: with the same day's form, it wins 8 of 10.
An off day for App State: its defense played far below its usual level. In a fresh game against Coastal Carolina it would win 67% of the time; with this day’s form, 21%. The numbers
Before kickoff App State was a 75% favorite. The biggest swing (Q4, 2:16 left): App State was stopped on 4th & 7, worth 18 points of win probability to Coastal Carolina.
Final
 Coastal Carolina Chanticleers | 45 |
|---|---|
 App State Mountaineers | 37 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +21 Coastal Carolina about even · −21 App State
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Coastal Carolina wins 8, App State wins 2.
- 1 CCU 34 APP 0
- 2 CCU 42 APP 17
- 3 CCU 35 APP 14
- 4 CCU 16 APP 0
- 5 CCU 37 APP 24
- 6 CCU 24 APP 14
- 7 CCU 27 APP 20
- 8 CCU 27 APP 24
- 9 CCU 7 APP 10
- 10 CCU 3 APP 17
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
An off day for App State
Its defense played far below its usual level. In a fresh game against Coastal Carolina it would win 67% of the time; with this day’s form, 21%.
Same teams, fresh game
Replay with same day's form
46 points apart for App State: the gap is how differently this game went from what the two teams usually are.
| Unit | This game | Usual level | Better or worse than usual |
|---|---|---|---|
| Coastal Carolina offenseEPA per play gained | +0.48 | +0.07 | better by 0.41 |
| Coastal Carolina defenseEPA per play allowed | +0.24 | +0.07 | worse by 0.17 |
| App State offenseEPA per play gained | +0.24 | +0.11 | better by 0.13 |
| App State defenseEPA per play allowed | +0.48 | +0.13 | worse by 0.35 |
EPA (expected points added) per play on competitive snaps, turnovers left out because they are valued as luck. Usual level: the team’s earlier games this season plus half of last season, pulled toward the league average. One team’s defense and the other team’s offense are the same snaps, so one game can’t fully say whose day it was; it shows how far this one was from both teams’ norms.
How 4,000 replays ended
Coastal Carolina wins 79% of them, App State 21%, counting the 6% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Coastal Carolina by 8.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Coastal Carolina by 17+ | 34.8% |
| Coastal Carolina by 9–16 | 20.0% |
| Coastal Carolina by 1–8 | 19.9% |
| Level after regulation | 5.7% |
| App State by 1–8 | 12.3% |
| App State by 9–16 | 5.1% |
| App State by 17+ | 2.1% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
The kicks
How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance), and what happened.
- K. Afrookhteh, 43 yds made · 68% expected
- D. De Freitas, 31 yds made · 86% expected
- D. De Freitas, 25 yds made · 91% expected
- D. De Freitas, 23 yds made · 93% expected
Penalties: Coastal Carolina 3 for 35 yards, App State 6 for 60 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 13:55 | Face Mask on Coastal Carolina, 15 yards | +2% APP +1.1 pts |
| Q1 13:40 | Illegal Snap on App State, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% CCU +0.6 pts |
| Q1 7:56 | Block Below the Waist on App State, 15 yards | +4% APP +3.0 pts |
| Q2 7:02 | Delay of Game on Coastal Carolina, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% APP +0.6 pts |
| Q3 0:26 | Offside on App State, 5 yards · pre-snap | +2% CCU +1.2 pts |
| Q4 6:21 | Pass Interference on App State, 15 yards | +6% CCU +1.4 pts |
| Q4 3:08 | False Start on App State, 5 yards · pre-snap | +2% APP +0.4 pts |
| Q4 1:51 | Face Mask on Coastal Carolina, 15 yards, wiping out the play | +5% APP +3.5 pts |
| Q4 0:55 | Pass Interference on App State, 15 yards | +4% CCU +1.2 pts |
When it happened
App State’s chance of winning
As low as 0% and as high as 95%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q1 7:56 | K. Afrookhteh made a 43-yard field goalKicks · 68% expected for himBlock Below the Waist on App State, 15 yardsJudgment calls | +4% APP | CCU: End of half |
| 2 | Q3 8:00 | App State converted 4th & 63rd & 4th downs · 41% expected | +6% APP | APP: Field goal |
| 3 | Q4 6:21 | Pass Interference on App State, 15 yardsJudgment calls | +6% CCU | CCU: Touchdown |
| 4 | Q4 5:21 | Coastal Carolina converted 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 47% expected | +7% CCU | CCU: Touchdown |
| 5 | Q4 2:22 | App State was stopped on 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 39% expected | +5% CCU | APP: Turnover on downs |
| 6 | Q4 2:16 | App State was stopped on 4th & 73rd & 4th downs · 38% expected | +18% CCU | APP: Turnover |
| 7 | Q4 1:51 | Face Mask on Coastal Carolina, 15 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls | +5% APP | APP: Turnover |
| 8 | Q4 0:55 | Pass Interference on App State, 15 yardsJudgment calls | +4% CCU | CCU: End of game |
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Coastal Carolina 85% · App State 15%
- Final margin
- Coastal Carolina by 8
- Luck in points
- 1.5 for Coastal Carolina
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Coastal Carolina by 6.5
- Replay with same day's form
- Coastal Carolina 79% · App State 21% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.
Methodology and validation · All Week 8 2025 games · 
Coastal Carolina · 
App State
More from Week 8 2025
- Southern Miss at Louisiana USM 22–10 · replay 34% for the winner
- Troy at UL Monroe TROY 37–14 · replay 58% for the winner
- Georgia State at Georgia Southern GASO 41–24 · replay 63% for the winner
- Arkansas State at South Alabama ARST 15–14 · replay 66% for the winner
- Texas State at Marshall MRSH 40–37 · replay 71% for the winner
- Old Dominion at James Madison JMU 63–27 · replay 90% for the winner
- Texas at Kentucky TEX 16–13 · replay 7% for the winner
- Wyoming at Air Force AF 24–21 · replay 13% for the winner
- Louisville at Miami LOU 24–21 · replay 24% for the winner
- Washington State at Virginia UVA 22–20 · replay 29% for the winner
- Missouri at Auburn MIZ 23–17 · replay 32% for the winner
- Florida International at Western Kentucky FIU 25–6 · replay 33% for the winner