Week 8 2025 · October 14, 2025
Arkansas State at South Alabama, Week 8 2025: who deserved to win?
Arkansas State beat South Alabama 15–14, and the replays lean its way: with the same day's form, it wins 7 of 10. South Alabama had the bounces: 3rd & 4th downs alone were worth 20 points of win probability to South Alabama.
An off day for South Alabama: its offense played far below its usual level. In a fresh game against Arkansas State it would win 67% of the time; with this day’s form, 34%. The numbers
Before kickoff South Alabama was a 71% favorite. The biggest swing (Q4, 1:50 left): H. DiBoyan missed a 29-yard field goal, worth 23 points of win probability to Arkansas State.
Final
 Arkansas State Red Wolves | 15 |
|---|---|
 South Alabama Jaguars | 14 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +34 Arkansas State lucky · −34 South Alabama
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Arkansas State wins 7, South Alabama wins 3.
- 1 ARST 38 USA 8
- 2 ARST 39 USA 17
- 3 ARST 24 USA 7
- 4 ARST 34 USA 20
- 5 ARST 35 USA 24
- 6 ARST 9 USA 2
- 7 ARST 17 USA 14
- 8 ARST 21 USA 23
- 9 ARST 21 USA 28
- 10 ARST 0 USA 16
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
An off day for South Alabama
Its offense played far below its usual level. In a fresh game against Arkansas State it would win 67% of the time; with this day’s form, 34%.
Same teams, fresh game
Replay with same day's form
33 points apart for South Alabama: the gap is how differently this game went from what the two teams usually are.
| Unit | This game | Usual level | Better or worse than usual |
|---|---|---|---|
| Arkansas State offenseEPA per play gained | −0.15 | +0.01 | worse by 0.16 |
| Arkansas State defenseEPA per play allowed | −0.14 | +0.10 | better by 0.24 |
| South Alabama offenseEPA per play gained | −0.14 | +0.17 | worse by 0.31 |
| South Alabama defenseEPA per play allowed | −0.15 | +0.11 | better by 0.26 |
EPA (expected points added) per play on competitive snaps, turnovers left out because they are valued as luck. Usual level: the team’s earlier games this season plus half of last season, pulled toward the league average. One team’s defense and the other team’s offense are the same snaps, so one game can’t fully say whose day it was; it shows how far this one was from both teams’ norms.
How 4,000 replays ended
Arkansas State wins 66% of them, South Alabama 34%, counting the 4% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Arkansas State by 1.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Arkansas State by 17+ | 26.2% |
| Arkansas State by 9–16 | 20.0% |
| Arkansas State by 1–8 | 19.7% |
| Level after regulation | 3.5% |
| South Alabama by 1–8 | 16.7% |
| South Alabama by 9–16 | 8.6% |
| South Alabama by 17+ | 5.4% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
The kicks
How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance), and what happened.
- C. Van Andel, 25 yds made · 93% expected
- C. Van Andel, 28 yds missed · 90% expected
- C. Van Andel, 37 yds made · 79% expected
- H. DiBoyan, 29 yds missed · 88% expected
- C. Van Andel, 38 yds made · 77% expected
Penalties: Arkansas State 7 for 61 yards, South Alabama 14 for 130 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 7:38 | Holding on Arkansas State, 10 yards | +1% USA +0.6 pts |
| Q1 5:56 | Face Mask on Arkansas State, 15 yards | +2% USA +0.9 pts |
| Q1 3:46 | Holding on South Alabama, 10 yards | +1% ARST +0.6 pts |
| Q1 2:13 | Holding on Arkansas State, 6 yards | 0% USA +0.4 pts |
| Q1 0:32 | False Start on South Alabama, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% ARST +0.7 pts |
| Q1 0:31 | Holding on South Alabama, 7 yards | +1% ARST +0.4 pts |
| Q2 13:46 | Roughing the Passer on South Alabama, 15 yards | +3% ARST +1.6 pts |
| Q2 13:40 | Pass Interference on South Alabama, 15 yards | +3% ARST +1.6 pts |
| Q2 12:02 | False Start on South Alabama, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% ARST +0.7 pts |
| Q2 7:55 | False Start on South Alabama, 3 yards · pre-snap | +1% ARST +0.3 pts |
| Q2 4:36 | Holding on South Alabama, 10 yards | +1% ARST +0.6 pts |
| Q2 4:36 | False Start on South Alabama, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% ARST +0.7 pts |
| Q3 15:00 | Holding on South Alabama, 10 yards | +1% ARST +0.6 pts |
| Q3 15:00 | Offside on Arkansas State, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% USA +0.3 pts |
| Q3 12:12 | False Start on Arkansas State, 5 yards · pre-snap | +4% USA +1.4 pts |
| Q3 6:41 | False Start on Arkansas State, 5 yards · pre-snap | +8% USA +2.8 pts |
| Q4 10:43 | False Start on South Alabama, 5 yards · pre-snap | +2% ARST +0.7 pts |
| Q4 7:51 | Roughing the Passer on Arkansas State, 15 yards | +9% USA +1.6 pts |
| Q4 7:51 | Unsportsmanlike Conduct on South Alabama, 15 yards | +6% ARST +1.1 pts |
| Q4 7:51 | Holding on South Alabama, 10 yards | +3% ARST +0.6 pts |
| Q4 2:00 | Offside on South Alabama, 15 yards · pre-snap | +7% ARST +0.9 pts |
When it happened
South Alabama’s chance of winning
As low as 0% and as high as 93%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q1 5:56 | South Alabama converted 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 37% expectedFace Mask on Arkansas State, 15 yardsJudgment calls | +6% USA | USA: Touchdown |
| 2 | Q2 12:02 | South Alabama was stopped on 3rd & 183rd & 4th downs · 18% expectedC. Van Andel made a 25-yard field goalKicks · 93% expected for himFalse Start on South Alabama, 5 yardsPre-snap flags | +5% USA | USA: Punt |
| 3 | Q3 12:57 | Arkansas State converted 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 30% expected | +6% ARST | ARST: End of half |
| 4 | Q3 12:12 | Arkansas State was stopped on 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 37% expectedArkansas State converted 4th & 73rd & 4th downs · 33% expectedArkansas State was stopped on 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 33% expectedSouth Alabama converted 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 41% expectedC. Van Andel missed a 28-yard field goalKicks · 90% expected for himFalse Start on Arkansas State, 5 yardsPre-snap flags | +11% USA | ARST: End of half |
| 5 | Q3 6:41 | False Start on Arkansas State, 5 yardsPre-snap flags | +8% USA | USA: Touchdown |
| 6 | Q4 7:51 | South Alabama was stopped on 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 27% expectedSouth Alabama converted 4th & 283rd & 4th downs · 12% expectedSouth Alabama was stopped on 3rd & 203rd & 4th downs · 17% expectedArkansas State’s two-point try failed3rd & 4th downs · 46% expectedRoughing the Passer on Arkansas State, 15 yardsJudgment callsUnsportsmanlike Conduct on South Alabama, 15 yardsJudgment callsHolding on South Alabama, 10 yardsJudgment calls | +22% USA | USA: Missed field goal |
| 7 | Q4 1:50 | H. DiBoyan missed a 29-yard field goalKicks · 88% expected for him | +23% ARST | – |
| 8 | Q4 0:03 | C. Van Andel made a 38-yard field goalKicks · 77% expected for him | +5% ARST | – |
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Arkansas State 65% · South Alabama 35%
- Final margin
- Arkansas State by 1
- Luck in points
- 1.8 for South Alabama
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Arkansas State by 2.8
- Replay with same day's form
- Arkansas State 66% · South Alabama 34% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.
Methodology and validation · All Week 8 2025 games · 
Arkansas State · 
South Alabama
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