Week 8 2025 · October 18, 2025
Part of this game's play-by-play is missing from the source: the plays on file account for 67 of the 77 points, so the replay rests on the plays there are.
Texas State at Marshall, Week 8 2025: who deserved to win?
Marshall beat Texas State 40–37, and the replays lean its way: with the same day's form, it wins 7 of 10.
Before kickoff Texas State was a 58% favorite. The biggest swing (Q4, 1:14 left): Marshall’s two-point try was good, worth 14 points of win probability to Marshall.
Final (OT)
 Texas State Bobcats | 37 |
|---|---|
 Marshall Thundering Herd | 40 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +29 Marshall lucky · −29 Texas State
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Texas State wins 3, Marshall wins 7.
- 1 TXST 38 MRSH 19
- 2 TXST 35 MRSH 27
- 3 TXST 24 MRSH 21
- 4 TXST 28 MRSH 31
- 5 TXST 14 MRSH 20
- 6 TXST 14 MRSH 23
- 7 TXST 3 MRSH 17
- 8 TXST 14 MRSH 31
- 9 TXST 9 MRSH 33
- 10 TXST 10 MRSH 44
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
How 4,000 replays ended
Texas State wins 29% of them, Marshall 71%, counting the 3% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Marshall by 3.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Texas State by 17+ | 5.9% |
| Texas State by 9–16 | 7.8% |
| Texas State by 1–8 | 14.9% |
| Level after regulation | 3.1% |
| Marshall by 1–8 | 20.2% |
| Marshall by 9–16 | 18.8% |
| Marshall by 17+ | 29.3% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
The kicks
How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance), and what happened.
- L. Quinn, 24 yds made · 91% expected
- T. Robles, 23 yds made · 93% expected
- L. Quinn, 31 yds made · 85% expected
- L. Quinn, 23 yds made · 92% expected
- T. Robles, 50 yds made · 55% expected
- T. Robles, 29 yds made · 89% expected
Penalties: Texas State 9 for 65 yards, Marshall 4 for 50 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 12:06 | Holding on Texas State, 10 yards | +2% MRSH +1.0 pts |
| Q1 7:30 | Personal Foul on Marshall, 15 yards | +2% TXST +0.9 pts |
| Q1 7:27 | Unnecessary Roughness on Marshall, 15 yards | +3% TXST +1.6 pts |
| Q1 2:29 | Unnecessary Roughness on Texas State, 15 yards | +3% MRSH +1.2 pts |
| Q1 2:17 | Offside on Texas State, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% MRSH 0.0 pts |
| Q1 2:16 | Offside on Texas State, 5 yards · pre-snap | +2% MRSH +0.8 pts |
| Q2 6:24 | Holding on Texas State, 10 yards | +3% MRSH +1.3 pts |
| Q2 4:42 | Holding on Marshall, 10 yards | +2% TXST +0.6 pts |
| Q3 8:01 | False Start on Texas State, 5 yards · pre-snap | +2% MRSH +0.8 pts |
| Q4 14:30 | Holding on Marshall, 10 yards, wiping out the play | +5% TXST +2.0 pts |
| Q4 7:07 | Offside on Texas State, 5 yards · pre-snap | +2% MRSH +0.5 pts |
| Q4 3:04 | False Start on Texas State, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% MRSH +0.3 pts |
| Q4 2:03 | Offside on Texas State, 5 yards · pre-snap | +3% MRSH +0.5 pts |
When it happened
Marshall’s chance of winning
As low as 7% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q1 8:45 | Texas State converted 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 29% expected | +6% TXST | TXST: Turnover on downs |
| 2 | Q1 5:06 | Texas State was stopped on 4th & 33rd & 4th downs · 55% expected | +6% MRSH | TXST: Punt |
| 3 | Q3 8:57 | Marshall was stopped on 4th & 23rd & 4th downs · 53% expected | +6% TXST | MRSH: Field goal |
| 4 | Q4 14:45 | Texas State converted 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 32% expected | +9% TXST | TXST: Turnover |
| 5 | Q4 14:30 | Holding on Marshall, 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls | +5% TXST | TXST: Turnover |
| 6 | Q4 8:53 | Texas State fumbled and Marshall recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 | +5% MRSH | TXST: Punt |
| 7 | Q4 1:14 | Marshall’s two-point try was good3rd & 4th downs · 46% expected | +14% MRSH | – |
| 8 | 2OT | T. Robles made a 29-yard field goalKicks · 89% expected for him | +10% MRSH | – |
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Texas State 59% · Marshall 41%
- Final margin
- Marshall by 3
- Luck in points
- 5.1 for Marshall
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Texas State by 2.1
- Replay with same day's form
- Texas State 29% · Marshall 71% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here. Part of this game's play-by-play is missing from the source: the plays on file account for 67 of the 77 points, so the replay rests on the plays there are.
Methodology and validation · All Week 8 2025 games · 
Texas State · 
Marshall
More from Week 8 2025
- Southern Miss at Louisiana USM 22–10 · replay 34% for the winner
- Troy at UL Monroe TROY 37–14 · replay 58% for the winner
- Georgia State at Georgia Southern GASO 41–24 · replay 63% for the winner
- Arkansas State at South Alabama ARST 15–14 · replay 66% for the winner
- Coastal Carolina at App State CCU 45–37 · replay 79% for the winner
- Old Dominion at James Madison JMU 63–27 · replay 90% for the winner
- Texas at Kentucky TEX 16–13 · replay 7% for the winner
- Wyoming at Air Force AF 24–21 · replay 13% for the winner
- Louisville at Miami LOU 24–21 · replay 24% for the winner
- Washington State at Virginia UVA 22–20 · replay 29% for the winner
- Missouri at Auburn MIZ 23–17 · replay 32% for the winner
- Florida International at Western Kentucky FIU 25–6 · replay 33% for the winner