Week 8 2025 · October 18, 2025
Missouri at Auburn, Week 8 2025: who deserved to win?
Missouri beat Auburn 23–17, but the replays lean toward Auburn: it takes 7 of 10 with the same day's form.
Before kickoff Missouri was a 54% favorite. The biggest swing (OT): R. Meyer missed a 38-yard field goal, worth 40 points of win probability to Auburn.
Final (OT)
 Missouri Tigers | 23 |
|---|---|
 Auburn Tigers | 17 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +68 Missouri very lucky · −68 Auburn
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Missouri wins 3, Auburn wins 7.
- 1 MIZ 37 AUB 20
- 2 MIZ 28 AUB 19
- 3 MIZ 17 AUB 14
- 4 MIZ 13 AUB 14
- 5 MIZ 17 AUB 21
- 6 MIZ 13 AUB 21
- 7 MIZ 2 AUB 14
- 8 MIZ 16 AUB 31
- 9 MIZ 10 AUB 29
- 10 MIZ 9 AUB 38
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
How 4,000 replays ended
Missouri wins 32% of them, Auburn 68%, counting the 5% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Missouri by 6.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Missouri by 17+ | 5.0% |
| Missouri by 9–16 | 9.8% |
| Missouri by 1–8 | 15.3% |
| Level after regulation | 4.7% |
| Auburn by 1–8 | 22.8% |
| Auburn by 9–16 | 19.6% |
| Auburn by 17+ | 22.9% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
The kicks
How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance), and what happened.
- R. Meyer, 24 yds made · 92% expected
- A. McPherson, 40 yds missed · 76% expected
- A. McPherson, 38 yds missed · 78% expected
- A. McPherson, 22 yds made · 95% expected
- A. McPherson, 50 yds missed · 56% expected
- R. Meyer, 38 yds missed · 76% expected
Penalties: Missouri 5 for 51 yards, Auburn 4 for 40 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 12:53 | Pass Interference on Missouri, 15 yards | +8% AUB +3.9 pts |
| Q1 1:48 | Penalty on Missouri, 1 yard | +3% AUB +1.5 pts |
| Q1 1:01 | False Start on Auburn, 5 yards · pre-snap | +2% MIZ +0.9 pts |
| Q2 7:18 | Offside on Auburn, 5 yards · pre-snap | +2% MIZ +0.7 pts |
| Q2 1:48 | Roughing the Passer on Missouri, 15 yards | +4% AUB +1.6 pts |
| Q3 3:37 | Personal Foul on Missouri, 15 yards | +6% AUB +1.6 pts |
| Q4 6:06 | Pass Interference on Auburn, 15 yards | +7% MIZ +1.6 pts |
| Q4 6:06 | Unnecessary Roughness on Auburn, 15 yards | +4% MIZ +0.8 pts |
| Q4 0:24 | False Start on Missouri, 5 yards · pre-snap | +2% AUB +0.2 pts |
When it happened
Auburn’s chance of winning
As low as 0% and as high as 88%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q1 12:53 | Pass Interference on Missouri, 15 yardsJudgment calls | +8% AUB | AUB: Touchdown |
| 2 | Q3 8:14 | A. McPherson missed a 38-yard field goalKicks · 78% expected for him | +8% MIZ | AUB: Touchdown |
| 3 | Q3 3:37 | Personal Foul on Missouri, 15 yardsJudgment calls | +6% AUB | AUB: Touchdown |
| 4 | Q4 6:06 | Pass Interference on Auburn, 15 yardsJudgment callsUnnecessary Roughness on Auburn, 15 yardsJudgment calls | +11% MIZ | MIZ: Touchdown |
| 5 | Q4 4:09 | Auburn converted 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 25% expected | +22% AUB | AUB: Punt |
| 6 | Q4 3:05 | Auburn was stopped on 3rd & 93rd & 4th downs · 28% expected | +8% MIZ | AUB: Punt |
| 7 | OT | A. McPherson missed a 50-yard field goalKicks · 56% expected for him, 3 of 4 from 45+ before | +34% MIZ | – |
| 8 | OT | R. Meyer missed a 38-yard field goalKicks · 76% expected for him | +40% AUB | – |
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Missouri 15% · Auburn 85%
- Final margin
- Missouri by 6
- Luck in points
- 11.8 for Missouri
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Auburn by 5.8
- Replay with same day's form
- Missouri 32% · Auburn 68% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.
Methodology and validation · All Week 8 2025 games · 
Missouri · 
Auburn
More from Week 8 2025
- Texas at Kentucky TEX 16–13 · replay 7% for the winner
- LSU at Vanderbilt VAN 31–24 · replay 75% for the winner
- Tennessee at Alabama ALA 37–20 · replay 75% for the winner
- Texas A&M at Arkansas TA&M 45–42 · replay 78% for the winner
- Oklahoma at South Carolina OU 26–7 · replay 83% for the winner
- Mississippi State at Florida FLA 23–21 · replay 85% for the winner
- Ole Miss at Georgia UGA 43–35 · replay 87% for the winner
- Wyoming at Air Force AF 24–21 · replay 13% for the winner
- Louisville at Miami LOU 24–21 · replay 24% for the winner
- Washington State at Virginia UVA 22–20 · replay 29% for the winner
- Florida International at Western Kentucky FIU 25–6 · replay 33% for the winner
- Southern Miss at Louisiana USM 22–10 · replay 34% for the winner