Tennessee at Alabama, Week 8 2025: who deserved to win?

Final

Tennessee Volunteers	20
Alabama Crimson Tide	37

October 18, 2025 · Bryant-Denny Stadium · Closing line: Alabama −8.5

Replay with same day's form

Luck index +25 Alabama about even · −25 Tennessee

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Tennessee wins 2, Alabama wins 8.

1 TENN 41 ALA 28
2 TENN 20 ALA 17
3 TENN 17 ALA 20
4 TENN 30 ALA 35
5 TENN 23 ALA 31
6 TENN 27 ALA 38
7 TENN 14 ALA 28
8 TENN 24 ALA 42
9 TENN 7 ALA 31
10 TENN 17 ALA 49

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

Before kickoff

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

Same teams, fresh game

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Tennessee wins 25% of them, Alabama 75%, counting the 4% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Alabama by 17.

Actual: Alabama by 17 494235282114707142128354249 ← Tennessee win by Alabama win by →

Show as a table

Final margin in the replays	Share of replays
Tennessee by 17+	3.8%
Tennessee by 9–16	7.2%
Tennessee by 1–8	13.2%
Level after regulation	4.1%
Alabama by 1–8	21.8%
Alabama by 9–16	19.3%
Alabama by 17+	30.6%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

3rd & 4th downs +4% TENN

Pre-snap flags +4% ALA

Fumble bounces +4% TENN

All luck +4% TENN

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +2.5 points to Tennessee: the final margin was Alabama by 17, without the luck Alabama by 19.5. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

Penalties: Tennessee 10 for 67 yards, Alabama 7 for 61 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued

When	Flag	Win probability for
Q1 14:36	False Start on Tennessee, 5 yards · pre-snap	+2% ALA +1.4 pts
Q1 11:14	Offside on Tennessee, 5 yards · pre-snap	+2% ALA +1.0 pts
Q1 3:26	Ineligible Downfield on Tennessee, 5 yards, wiping out the play	+3% ALA +1.7 pts
Q2 15:00	False Start on Alabama, 5 yards · pre-snap	+1% TENN +0.7 pts
Q2 7:39	Illegal Block on Tennessee, 9 yards	+2% ALA +0.9 pts
Q2 7:27	Intentional Grounding on Tennessee, 0 yards	0% ALA 0.0 pts
Q2 3:40	Unnecessary Roughness on Alabama, 17 yards	+3% TENN +1.8 pts
Q2 3:14	False Start on Tennessee, 5 yards · pre-snap	+1% ALA +0.5 pts
Q3 2:37	False Start on Alabama, 5 yards · pre-snap	0% TENN +0.5 pts
Q4 9:54	Pass Interference on Tennessee, 15 yards	+3% ALA +2.7 pts
Q4 9:03	Pass Interference on Tennessee, 15 yards	+1% ALA +0.7 pts
Q4 6:19	Unnecessary Roughness on Tennessee, 4 yards	0% ALA +1.0 pts
Q4 4:30	Pass Interference on Alabama, 11 yards	0% TENN +1.1 pts
Q4 1:36	Holding on Alabama, 10 yards	0% TENN +0.4 pts
Q4 1:31	Pass Interference on Alabama, 10 yards	0% TENN +2.5 pts
Q4 1:08	Pass Interference on Alabama, 3 yards	0% TENN +1.9 pts
Q4 0:31	False Start on Tennessee, 4 yards · pre-snap	0% TENN +0.3 pts

When it happened

Alabama’s chance of winning

Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

Alabama 50% Tennessee Q1Q2Q3Q4 12345678

Our in-game win probability: the score, the value of the possession and the time left, starting from the betting line. Overtime has no clock and is drawn at a fixed width. Shaded above the middle while Alabama was ahead in it, below while Tennessee was.

#	When	What happened	Win probability for	Next drive
1	Q1 11:53	Alabama converted 3rd & 133rd & 4th downs · 26% expected	+5% ALA	ALA: Touchdown
2	Q1 5:36	Tennessee converted 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 32% expected	+4% TENN	TENN: Punt
3	Q1 3:26	Ineligible Downfield on Tennessee, 5 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls	+3% ALA	ALA: Punt
4	Q2 11:05	Tennessee converted 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 32% expected	+5% TENN	TENN: Touchdown
5	Q2 8:11	Alabama was stopped on 3rd & 123rd & 4th downs · 28% expected	+3% TENN	ALA: Punt
6	Q2 3:40	Unnecessary Roughness on Alabama, 17 yardsJudgment calls	+3% TENN	TENN: Opp touchdown
7	Q3 7:42	Alabama fumbled and Tennessee recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50	+4% TENN	ALA: Touchdown
8	Q4 9:54	Pass Interference on Tennessee, 15 yardsJudgment calls	+3% ALA	ALA: Touchdown

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Tennessee 0% · Alabama 100%

Final margin: Alabama by 17
Luck in points: 2.5 for Tennessee
Luck-adjusted margin: Alabama by 19.5
Replay with same day's form: Tennessee 25% · Alabama 75% unchanged: why

How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

3rd & 4th downs 50%Fumble bounces 100%Kicks 100%Judgment calls 0%Pre-snap flags 100%Special teams 0%

What counts Referee calls Momentum after a lucky break none

None by default: our tests measured no carryover after a lucky break. Slide it up to count a break for more than its own swing. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

Alabama converted 3rd & 13Q1 11:53
Tennessee converted 3rd & 8Q1 5:36
Ineligible Downfield on Tennessee, 5 yards, wiping out the playQ1 3:26
Tennessee converted 3rd & 8Q2 11:05
Alabama was stopped on 3rd & 12Q2 8:11
Unnecessary Roughness on Alabama, 17 yardsQ2 3:40
Alabama fumbled and Tennessee recoveredQ3 7:42
Pass Interference on Tennessee, 15 yardsQ4 9:54

About these numbers

Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.

Methodology and validation · All Week 8 2025 games · Tennessee · Alabama

More from Week 8 2025

Texas at Kentucky TEX 16–13 · replay 7% for the winner
Missouri at Auburn MIZ 23–17 · replay 32% for the winner
LSU at Vanderbilt VAN 31–24 · replay 75% for the winner
Texas A&M at Arkansas TA&M 45–42 · replay 78% for the winner
Oklahoma at South Carolina OU 26–7 · replay 83% for the winner
Mississippi State at Florida FLA 23–21 · replay 85% for the winner
Ole Miss at Georgia UGA 43–35 · replay 87% for the winner
Wyoming at Air Force AF 24–21 · replay 13% for the winner
Louisville at Miami LOU 24–21 · replay 24% for the winner
Washington State at Virginia UVA 22–20 · replay 29% for the winner
Florida International at Western Kentucky FIU 25–6 · replay 33% for the winner
Southern Miss at Louisiana USM 22–10 · replay 34% for the winner

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