luckadjusted
CFB Week 4 · 2026

Week 8 2025 · October 18, 2025

Washington State at Virginia, Week 8 2025: who deserved to win?

Virginia beat Washington State 22–20, but the replays lean toward Washington State: it takes 7 of 10 with the same day's form. Luck ran its way: fumble bounces alone were worth 11 points of win probability to Virginia.

Virginia won on an off day: its offense played far below its usual level. In a fresh game against Washington State it would win 82% of the time; with this day’s form, 29%. The numbers

Before kickoff Virginia was an 86% favorite. The biggest swing (Q4, 7:09 left): Illegal Block on Virginia, 10 yards, worth 13 points of win probability to Virginia.

Final

Washington State Cougars 20
Virginia Cavaliers 22

October 18, 2025 · Scott Stadium · Closing line: Virginia −16.5

Luck index +71 Virginia very lucky · −71 Washington State

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Washington State wins 7, Virginia wins 3.

  1. 1 WSU 44 UVA 13
  2. 2 WSU 28 UVA 7
  3. 3 WSU 24 UVA 7
  4. 4 WSU 34 UVA 21
  5. 5 WSU 13 UVA 3
  6. 6 WSU 33 UVA 27
  7. 7 WSU 20 UVA 17
  8. 8 WSU 28 UVA 31
  9. 9 WSU 7 UVA 17
  10. 10 WSU 10 UVA 27

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

Virginia won on an off day

Its offense played far below its usual level. In a fresh game against Washington State it would win 82% of the time; with this day’s form, 29%.

53 points apart for Virginia: the gap is how differently this game went from what the two teams usually are.

UnitThis gameUsual levelBetter or worse than usual
Washington State offenseEPA per play gained +0.02 +0.13 worse by 0.11
Washington State defenseEPA per play allowed −0.07 +0.08 better by 0.15
Virginia offenseEPA per play gained −0.07 +0.08 worse by 0.15
Virginia defenseEPA per play allowed +0.02 +0.14 better by 0.12

EPA (expected points added) per play on competitive snaps, turnovers left out because they are valued as luck. Usual level: the team’s earlier games this season plus half of last season, pulled toward the league average. One team’s defense and the other team’s offense are the same snaps, so one game can’t fully say whose day it was; it shows how far this one was from both teams’ norms.

How 4,000 replays ended

Washington State wins 71% of them, Virginia 29%, counting the 6% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Virginia by 2.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Washington State by 17+29.5%
Washington State by 9–1619.3%
Washington State by 1–819.7%
Level after regulation5.7%
Virginia by 1–812.6%
Virginia by 9–167.8%
Virginia by 17+5.5%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +1.2 points to Washington State: the final margin was Virginia by 2, without the luck Virginia by 3.2. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance), and what happened.

  • J. Stevens, 37 yds made · 79% expected
  • W. Bettridge, 47 yds made · 61% expected
  • J. Stevens, 42 yds made · 70% expected
  • W. Bettridge, 34 yds made · 83% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Washington State 7 for 33 yards, Virginia 8 for 84 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 8:05 False Start on Washington State, 5 yards · pre-snap +2% UVA +1.0 pts
Q1 7:49 False Start on Washington State, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% UVA +0.7 pts
Q1 0:33 Illegal Shift on Washington State, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% WSU +0.5 pts
Q2 11:46 False Start on Virginia, 5 yards · pre-snap +2% WSU +0.9 pts
Q2 9:31 Delay of Game on Virginia, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% WSU +0.6 pts
Q2 6:35 False Start on Virginia, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% WSU +0.5 pts
Q3 10:11 Tripping on Virginia, 15 yards +5% WSU +1.6 pts
Q3 0:29 Face Mask on Virginia, 15 yards +8% WSU +2.4 pts
Q4 9:01 False Start on Washington State, 5 yards · pre-snap +3% UVA +0.6 pts
Q4 8:43 False Start on Washington State, 5 yards · pre-snap +2% UVA +0.5 pts
Q4 8:22 Holding on Washington State, 7 yards, wiping out the play +6% UVA +1.2 pts
Q4 7:09 Illegal Block on Virginia, 19 yards 0% WSU 0.0 pts
Q4 7:09 Illegal Block on Virginia, 10 yards +13% UVA +2.3 pts
Q4 2:52 False Start on Washington State, 1 yard · pre-snap 0% UVA +0.1 pts
Q4 2:35 Holding on Virginia, 10 yards +6% WSU +0.6 pts

When it happened

Virginia’s chance of winning

As low as 19% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

Our in-game win probability: the score, the value of the possession and the time left, starting from the betting line. Overtime has no clock and is drawn at a fixed width. Shaded above the middle while Virginia was ahead in it, below while Washington State was.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q3 10:11 Tripping on Virginia, 15 yardsJudgment calls +5% WSU WSU: Field goal
2 Q3 1:33 Virginia was stopped on 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 45% expected +5% WSU UVA: Punt
3 Q3 0:29 Face Mask on Virginia, 15 yardsJudgment calls +8% WSU WSU: Punt
4 Q4 8:22 Holding on Washington State, 7 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls +6% UVA UVA: Field goal
5 Q4 7:09 Illegal Block on Virginia, 19 yardsJudgment callsIllegal Block on Virginia, 10 yardsJudgment calls +13% UVA WSU: End of game
6 Q4 5:47 Virginia fumbled and recovered itFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +11% UVA UVA: Field goal
7 Q4 3:28 Virginia was stopped on 3rd & 23rd & 4th downs · 66% expected +11% WSU UVA: Field goal
8 Q4 2:35 Holding on Virginia, 10 yardsJudgment calls +6% WSU –

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Washington State 31% · Virginia 69%

Final margin
Virginia by 2
Luck in points
1.2 for Washington State
Luck-adjusted margin
Virginia by 3.2
Replay with same day's form
Washington State 71% · Virginia 29% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

None by default: our tests measured no carryover after a lucky break. Slide it up to count a break for more than its own swing. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.

Methodology and validation · All Week 8 2025 games · Washington State · Virginia

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