Week 8 2025 · October 18, 2025
Oklahoma at South Carolina, Week 8 2025: who deserved to win?
Oklahoma beat South Carolina 26–7, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams actually played, Oklahoma wins 8 of 10.
Before kickoff Oklahoma was a 61% favorite.
Final
 Oklahoma Sooners | 26 |
|---|---|
 South Carolina Gamecocks | 7 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +18 Oklahoma about even · −18 South Carolina
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Oklahoma wins 8, South Carolina wins 2.
- 1 OU 31 SC 0
- 2 OU 30 SC 7
- 3 OU 20 SC 0
- 4 OU 19 SC 3
- 5 OU 20 SC 7
- 6 OU 20 SC 10
- 7 OU 14 SC 7
- 8 OU 10 SC 7
- 9 OU 14 SC 17
- 10 OU 15 SC 27
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
How 4,000 replays ended
Oklahoma wins 82% of them, South Carolina 18%, counting the 2% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Oklahoma by 19.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Oklahoma by 17+ | 39.0% |
| Oklahoma by 9–16 | 21.7% |
| Oklahoma by 1–8 | 21.3% |
| Level after regulation | 2.0% |
| South Carolina by 1–8 | 8.9% |
| South Carolina by 9–16 | 5.2% |
| South Carolina by 17+ | 1.8% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
Penalties: Oklahoma 8 for 73 yards, South Carolina 4 for 35 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 14:50 | Holding on Oklahoma, 10 yards | +3% SC +1.7 pts |
| Q1 0:37 | Delay of Game on Oklahoma, 5 yards · pre-snap | +2% SC +1.4 pts |
| Q1 0:37 | False Start on Oklahoma, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% SC +0.6 pts |
| Q2 5:42 | Penalty on Oklahoma, 15 yards | +2% SC +1.6 pts |
| Q2 2:09 | Pass Interference on Oklahoma, 12 yards | +6% SC +3.7 pts |
| Q2 2:05 | Pass Interference on Oklahoma, 1 yard | 0% SC +0.2 pts |
| Q2 0:48 | Holding on Oklahoma, 10 yards | 0% SC +0.4 pts |
| Q3 7:58 | Pass Interference on South Carolina, 10 yards, wiping out the play | 0% OU 0.0 pts |
| Q3 5:52 | Pass Interference on Oklahoma, 15 yards | +3% SC +1.4 pts |
| Q3 3:00 | Roughing the Passer on South Carolina, 15 yards | +2% OU +1.6 pts |
| Q3 0:56 | Delay of Game on South Carolina, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% OU +1.2 pts |
| Q3 0:56 | False Start on South Carolina, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% OU +0.5 pts |
When it happened
South Carolina’s chance of winning
Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q1 2:51 | Oklahoma converted 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 36% expected | +4% OU | OU: Punt |
| 2 | Q1 0:37 | Delay of Game on Oklahoma, 5 yardsPre-snap flagsFalse Start on Oklahoma, 5 yardsPre-snap flags | +4% SC | SC: Punt |
| 3 | Q2 12:28 | Oklahoma converted 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 40% expected | +4% OU | OU: Touchdown |
| 4 | Q2 2:09 | Pass Interference on Oklahoma, 12 yardsJudgment calls | +6% SC | SC: Touchdown |
| 5 | Q2 1:43 | South Carolina converted 4th & 23rd & 4th downs · 49% expected | +5% SC | SC: End of half |
| 6 | Q3 13:45 | South Carolina was stopped on 3rd & 13rd & 4th downs · 72% expected | +4% OU | SC: Punt |
| 7 | Q3 12:00 | Oklahoma converted 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 49% expected | +3% OU | OU: Punt |
| 8 | Q3 6:01 | T. Sandell made a 55-yard field goalKicks · 48% expected for him, 4 of 4 from 45+ before | +6% OU | OU: Touchdown |
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Oklahoma 100% · South Carolina 0%
- Final margin
- Oklahoma by 19
- Luck in points
- 1.5 for Oklahoma
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Oklahoma by 17.5
- Replay with same day's form
- Oklahoma 82% · South Carolina 18% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.
Methodology and validation · All Week 8 2025 games · 
Oklahoma · 
South Carolina
More from Week 8 2025
- Texas at Kentucky TEX 16–13 · replay 7% for the winner
- Missouri at Auburn MIZ 23–17 · replay 32% for the winner
- LSU at Vanderbilt VAN 31–24 · replay 75% for the winner
- Tennessee at Alabama ALA 37–20 · replay 75% for the winner
- Texas A&M at Arkansas TA&M 45–42 · replay 78% for the winner
- Mississippi State at Florida FLA 23–21 · replay 85% for the winner
- Ole Miss at Georgia UGA 43–35 · replay 87% for the winner
- Wyoming at Air Force AF 24–21 · replay 13% for the winner
- Louisville at Miami LOU 24–21 · replay 24% for the winner
- Washington State at Virginia UVA 22–20 · replay 29% for the winner
- Florida International at Western Kentucky FIU 25–6 · replay 33% for the winner
- Southern Miss at Louisiana USM 22–10 · replay 34% for the winner