Week 8 2025 · October 18, 2025
Texas A&M at Arkansas, Week 8 2025: who deserved to win?
Texas A&M beat Arkansas 45–42, and the replays lean its way: with the same day's form, it wins 8 of 10.
Before kickoff Texas A&M was a 69% favorite.
Final
 Texas A&M Aggies | 45 |
|---|---|
 Arkansas Razorbacks | 42 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +22 Texas A&M about even · −22 Arkansas
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Texas A&M wins 8, Arkansas wins 2.
- 1 TA&M 52 ARK 17
- 2 TA&M 47 ARK 21
- 3 TA&M 37 ARK 17
- 4 TA&M 38 ARK 23
- 5 TA&M 47 ARK 34
- 6 TA&M 40 ARK 31
- 7 TA&M 47 ARK 41
- 8 TA&M 45 ARK 42
- 9 TA&M 17 ARK 21
- 10 TA&M 7 ARK 21
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
How 4,000 replays ended
Texas A&M wins 78% of them, Arkansas 22%, counting the 4% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Texas A&M by 3.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Texas A&M by 17+ | 35.3% |
| Texas A&M by 9–16 | 19.8% |
| Texas A&M by 1–8 | 19.1% |
| Level after regulation | 4.3% |
| Arkansas by 1–8 | 11.9% |
| Arkansas by 9–16 | 6.1% |
| Arkansas by 17+ | 3.5% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
The kicks
How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance), and what happened.
- S. Starzyk, 22 yds made · 94% expected
- S. Starzyk, 22 yds made · 94% expected
- R. Bond, 29 yds made · 89% expected
Penalties: Texas A&M 7 for 67 yards, Arkansas 8 for 85 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 14:22 | Pass Interference on Arkansas, 15 yards, wiping out the play | +6% TA&M +3.0 pts |
| Q1 13:21 | Pass Interference on Texas A&M, 15 yards | +5% ARK +2.8 pts |
| Q1 7:37 | False Start on Texas A&M, 5 yards · pre-snap | +2% ARK +0.8 pts |
| Q1 4:48 | Holding on Arkansas, 10 yards, wiping out the play | +4% TA&M +2.0 pts |
| Q1 1:16 | Offside on Arkansas, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% TA&M +0.8 pts |
| Q2 14:54 | Holding on Arkansas, 4 yards | +2% TA&M +1.3 pts |
| Q2 8:36 | Holding on Texas A&M, 10 yards | +1% ARK +1.1 pts |
| Q2 5:49 | Delay of Game on Arkansas, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% TA&M +0.7 pts |
| Q3 10:42 | Roughing the Passer on Arkansas, 15 yards | +1% TA&M +1.0 pts |
| Q3 5:21 | Penalty on Texas A&M, 13 yards | +3% ARK +1.5 pts |
| Q3 0:30 | Penalty on Texas A&M, 10 yards | +1% ARK +0.6 pts |
| Q4 12:32 | Penalty on Texas A&M, 4 yards | +3% ARK +1.2 pts |
| Q4 5:38 | Holding on Texas A&M, 10 yards, wiping out the play | +1% ARK +5.5 pts |
| Q4 1:10 | False Start on Arkansas, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% TA&M +0.3 pts |
| Q4 0:09 | Offside on Arkansas, 26 yards · pre-snap | +3% TA&M +1.6 pts |
When it happened
Arkansas’s chance of winning
Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q1 14:22 | Pass Interference on Arkansas, 15 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls | +6% TA&M | TA&M: Touchdown |
| 2 | Q1 13:21 | Pass Interference on Texas A&M, 15 yardsJudgment calls | +5% ARK | ARK: Field goal |
| 3 | Q1 4:48 | Holding on Arkansas, 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls | +4% TA&M | TA&M: Touchdown |
| 4 | Q1 2:54 | Arkansas was stopped on 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 80% expected | +6% TA&M | ARK: Field goal |
| 5 | Q3 5:21 | Penalty on Texas A&M, 13 yardsJudgment calls | +3% ARK | ARK: Touchdown |
| 6 | Q4 12:32 | Penalty on Texas A&M, 4 yardsJudgment calls | +3% ARK | ARK: Touchdown |
| 7 | Q4 11:30 | Arkansas’s two-point try was good3rd & 4th downs · 46% expected | +4% ARK | ARK: Punt |
| 8 | Q4 9:50 | Texas A&M converted 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 79% expected | +4% TA&M | TA&M: Touchdown |
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Texas A&M 45% · Arkansas 55%
- Final margin
- Texas A&M by 3
- Luck in points
- 3.7 for Texas A&M
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Arkansas by 0.7
- Replay with same day's form
- Texas A&M 78% · Arkansas 22% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.
Methodology and validation · All Week 8 2025 games · 
Texas A&M · 
Arkansas
More from Week 8 2025
- Texas at Kentucky TEX 16–13 · replay 7% for the winner
- Missouri at Auburn MIZ 23–17 · replay 32% for the winner
- LSU at Vanderbilt VAN 31–24 · replay 75% for the winner
- Tennessee at Alabama ALA 37–20 · replay 75% for the winner
- Oklahoma at South Carolina OU 26–7 · replay 83% for the winner
- Mississippi State at Florida FLA 23–21 · replay 85% for the winner
- Ole Miss at Georgia UGA 43–35 · replay 87% for the winner
- Wyoming at Air Force AF 24–21 · replay 13% for the winner
- Louisville at Miami LOU 24–21 · replay 24% for the winner
- Washington State at Virginia UVA 22–20 · replay 29% for the winner
- Florida International at Western Kentucky FIU 25–6 · replay 33% for the winner
- Southern Miss at Louisiana USM 22–10 · replay 34% for the winner