Week 8 2025 · October 18, 2025
Georgia State at Georgia Southern, Week 8 2025: who deserved to win?
Georgia Southern beat Georgia State 41–24, and the replays lean its way: with the same day's form, it wins 6 of 10.
Before kickoff Georgia Southern was a 66% favorite. The biggest swing (Q2, 8:06 left): Holding on Georgia State, 10 yards, wiping out the play, worth 9 points of win probability to Georgia Southern.
Final
 Georgia State Panthers | 24 |
|---|---|
 Georgia Southern Eagles | 41 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +37 Georgia Southern lucky · −37 Georgia State
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Georgia State wins 4, Georgia Southern wins 6.
- 1 GAST 42 GASO 21
- 2 GAST 35 GASO 23
- 3 GAST 35 GASO 28
- 4 GAST 27 GASO 24
- 5 GAST 14 GASO 17
- 6 GAST 7 GASO 14
- 7 GAST 7 GASO 17
- 8 GAST 9 GASO 23
- 9 GAST 9 GASO 27
- 10 GAST 10 GASO 35
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
How 4,000 replays ended
Georgia State wins 37% of them, Georgia Southern 63%, counting the 5% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Georgia Southern by 17.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Georgia State by 17+ | 7.0% |
| Georgia State by 9–16 | 8.7% |
| Georgia State by 1–8 | 18.5% |
| Level after regulation | 4.5% |
| Georgia Southern by 1–8 | 23.3% |
| Georgia Southern by 9–16 | 18.9% |
| Georgia Southern by 17+ | 19.2% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
The kicks
How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance), and what happened.
- T. Bryant, 38 yds made · 76% expected
- L. Rickman, 31 yds made · 83% expected
- T. Bryant, 46 yds made · 61% expected
Penalties: Georgia State 13 for 110 yards, Georgia Southern 4 for 43 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 12:13 | Holding on Georgia State, 10 yards | +1% GASO +0.6 pts |
| Q1 4:23 | Penalty on Georgia Southern, 10 yards | +1% GAST +0.3 pts |
| Q2 8:06 | Holding on Georgia State, 10 yards, wiping out the play | +9% GASO +3.6 pts |
| Q2 0:46 | False Start on Georgia State, 4 yards · pre-snap | +4% GASO +1.5 pts |
| Q2 0:17 | Holding on Georgia State, 10 yards | +1% GASO +0.4 pts |
| Q3 14:43 | Holding on Georgia State, 10 yards | +4% GASO +1.4 pts |
| Q3 9:33 | Pass Interference on Georgia State, 15 yards | +3% GASO +1.0 pts |
| Q3 6:21 | Targeting on Georgia Southern, 15 yards | +3% GAST +1.1 pts |
| Q3 5:52 | Roughing the Passer on Georgia Southern, 15 yards | +2% GAST +0.7 pts |
| Q3 4:45 | False Start on Georgia State, 5 yards · pre-snap | +3% GASO +1.0 pts |
| Q3 3:43 | Offside on Georgia Southern, 3 yards · pre-snap | +2% GAST +0.6 pts |
| Q3 2:39 | Offside on Georgia State, 5 yards · pre-snap | +6% GASO +1.8 pts |
| Q3 2:15 | Illegal Substitution on Georgia State, 5 yards · pre-snap | +3% GASO +0.9 pts |
| Q4 14:40 | Ineligible Downfield on Georgia State, 5 yards | +3% GASO +0.7 pts |
| Q4 13:37 | Delay of Game on Georgia State, 5 yards · pre-snap | +2% GASO +0.6 pts |
| Q4 10:05 | Face Mask on Georgia State, 15 yards | +4% GASO +1.3 pts |
| Q4 9:15 | Pass Interference on Georgia State, 11 yards, wiping out the play | +4% GASO +2.9 pts |
When it happened
Georgia Southern’s chance of winning
As low as 41% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q1 3:19 | Georgia Southern converted 3rd & 123rd & 4th downs · 28% expected | +6% GASO | GASO: Touchdown |
| 2 | Q2 9:23 | Georgia State converted 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 40% expected | +5% GAST | GAST: Field goal |
| 3 | Q2 8:06 | Holding on Georgia State, 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls | +9% GASO | GASO: Turnover on downs |
| 4 | Q3 13:33 | Georgia State converted 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 44% expected | +6% GAST | GAST: Turnover on downs |
| 5 | Q3 11:57 | Georgia State was stopped on 3rd & 13rd & 4th downs · 82% expected | +6% GASO | GAST: Turnover on downs |
| 6 | Q3 2:39 | Offside on Georgia State, 5 yardsPre-snap flags | +6% GASO | GASO: Touchdown |
| 7 | Q3 0:34 | Georgia Southern converted 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 52% expected | +6% GASO | GASO: Touchdown |
| 8 | Q4 13:19 | Georgia State fumbled and recovered itFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 | +7% GAST | GAST: Punt |
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Georgia State 5% · Georgia Southern 95%
- Final margin
- Georgia Southern by 17
- Luck in points
- 5.8 for Georgia Southern
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Georgia Southern by 11.2
- Replay with same day's form
- Georgia State 37% · Georgia Southern 63% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.
Methodology and validation · All Week 8 2025 games · 
Georgia State · 
Georgia Southern
More from Week 8 2025
- Southern Miss at Louisiana USM 22–10 · replay 34% for the winner
- Troy at UL Monroe TROY 37–14 · replay 58% for the winner
- Arkansas State at South Alabama ARST 15–14 · replay 66% for the winner
- Texas State at Marshall MRSH 40–37 · replay 71% for the winner
- Coastal Carolina at App State CCU 45–37 · replay 79% for the winner
- Old Dominion at James Madison JMU 63–27 · replay 90% for the winner
- Texas at Kentucky TEX 16–13 · replay 7% for the winner
- Wyoming at Air Force AF 24–21 · replay 13% for the winner
- Louisville at Miami LOU 24–21 · replay 24% for the winner
- Washington State at Virginia UVA 22–20 · replay 29% for the winner
- Missouri at Auburn MIZ 23–17 · replay 32% for the winner
- Florida International at Western Kentucky FIU 25–6 · replay 33% for the winner