Week 13 2025 · November 22, 2025
Coastal Carolina at South Carolina, Week 13 2025: who deserved to win?
South Carolina beat Coastal Carolina 51–7, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams actually played, South Carolina wins 10 of 10.
Before kickoff South Carolina was a 94% favorite.
Replay with same day's form
Luck index 0 South Carolina about even · 0 Coastal Carolina
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Coastal Carolina wins 0, South Carolina wins 10.
- 1 CCU 10 SC 24
- 2 CCU 14 SC 38
- 3 CCU 0 SC 28
- 4 CCU 7 SC 38
- 5 CCU 7 SC 42
- 6 CCU 6 SC 44
- 7 CCU 0 SC 41
- 8 CCU 3 SC 48
- 9 CCU 6 SC 56
- 10 CCU 0 SC 56
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
How 4,000 replays ended
Coastal Carolina wins 0% of them, South Carolina 100%. The line is what actually happened: South Carolina by 44.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Coastal Carolina by 17+ | 0.0% |
| Coastal Carolina by 9–16 | 0.0% |
| Coastal Carolina by 1–8 | 0.1% |
| Level after regulation | 0.0% |
| South Carolina by 1–8 | 0.7% |
| South Carolina by 9–16 | 2.1% |
| South Carolina by 17+ | 97.2% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
No play in this game swung win probability by luck.
The kicks
How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance), and what happened.
- P. Laforge, 56 yds missed · 44% expected
- W. Joyce, 47 yds made · 60% expected
Penalties: Coastal Carolina 5 for 63 yards, South Carolina 7 for 43 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 8:11 | Pass Interference on Coastal Carolina, 8 yards | 0% SC +1.6 pts |
| Q2 13:11 | False Start on South Carolina, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% CCU +0.8 pts |
| Q2 9:02 | Personal Foul on Coastal Carolina, 15 yards | 0% SC +0.9 pts |
| Q2 0:16 | Holding on South Carolina, 10 yards | 0% CCU +0.9 pts |
| Q2 0:12 | False Start on South Carolina, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% CCU +0.2 pts |
| Q3 10:55 | Offside on South Carolina, 5 yards, wiping out the play · pre-snap | 0% CCU +4.2 pts |
| Q3 10:12 | Holding on Coastal Carolina, 10 yards, wiping out the play | 0% SC +2.4 pts |
| Q3 8:17 | False Start on South Carolina, 4 yards · pre-snap | 0% CCU +0.6 pts |
| Q3 8:15 | Holding on South Carolina, 4 yards, wiping out the play | 0% CCU +3.9 pts |
| Q4 14:11 | Holding on South Carolina, 10 yards | 0% CCU +0.6 pts |
| Q4 6:30 | Targeting on Coastal Carolina, 15 yards | 0% SC +1.6 pts |
| Q4 3:00 | Pass Interference on Coastal Carolina, 15 yards | 0% SC +2.6 pts |
When it happened
South Carolina’s chance of winning
Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q1 12:59 | Coastal Carolina was stopped on 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 26% expected | +0% SC | CCU: Punt |
| 2 | Q1 8:50 | South Carolina’s two-point try failed3rd & 4th downs · 46% expected | +0% CCU | SC: Touchdown |
| 3 | Q1 8:39 | Coastal Carolina fumbled and South Carolina recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 | +0% SC | CCU: Punt |
| 4 | Q1 8:11 | Pass Interference on Coastal Carolina, 8 yardsJudgment calls | +0% SC | SC: Touchdown |
| 5 | Q1 1:17 | Coastal Carolina converted 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 45% expected | +0% CCU | CCU: Turnover on downs |
| 6 | Q2 14:18 | Coastal Carolina was stopped on 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 52% expected | +0% SC | CCU: Turnover on downs |
| 7 | Q2 12:17 | South Carolina converted 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 39% expected | +0% SC | SC: Touchdown |
| 8 | Q3 10:12 | Holding on Coastal Carolina, 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls | +0% SC | SC: Touchdown |
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Coastal Carolina 0% · South Carolina 100%
- Final margin
- South Carolina by 44
- Luck in points
- 0.9 for South Carolina
- Luck-adjusted margin
- South Carolina by 43.1
- Replay with same day's form
- Coastal Carolina 0% · South Carolina 100% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.
Methodology and validation · All Week 13 2025 games · 
Coastal Carolina · 
South Carolina
More from Week 13 2025
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