Week 13 2025 · November 22, 2025
Missouri at Oklahoma, Week 13 2025: who deserved to win?
Oklahoma beat Missouri 17–6, but the replays call it close to a coin flip: with the way both teams played, Oklahoma wins 5 of 10. Luck ran its way: 3rd & 4th downs alone were worth 11 points of win probability to Oklahoma.
Before kickoff Oklahoma was a 61% favorite.
Final
 Missouri Tigers | 6 |
|---|---|
 Oklahoma Sooners | 17 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +54 Oklahoma lucky · −54 Missouri
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Missouri wins 5, Oklahoma wins 5.
- 1 MIZ 41 OU 14
- 2 MIZ 24 OU 7
- 3 MIZ 21 OU 10
- 4 MIZ 24 OU 17
- 5 MIZ 20 OU 17
- 6 MIZ 13 OU 16
- 7 MIZ 14 OU 20
- 8 MIZ 16 OU 26
- 9 MIZ 13 OU 27
- 10 MIZ 0 OU 23
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
How 4,000 replays ended
Missouri wins 54% of them, Oklahoma 46%, counting the 2% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Oklahoma by 11.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Missouri by 17+ | 15.6% |
| Missouri by 9–16 | 18.1% |
| Missouri by 1–8 | 19.8% |
| Level after regulation | 1.9% |
| Oklahoma by 1–8 | 21.9% |
| Oklahoma by 9–16 | 12.9% |
| Oklahoma by 17+ | 9.9% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
The kicks
How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance), and what happened.
- R. Meyer, 39 yds made · 73% expected
- O. Robbins, 21 yds made · 93% expected
- T. Sandell, 45 yds made · 69% expected
Penalties: Missouri 6 for 51 yards, Oklahoma 7 for 80 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 9:45 | Offside on Oklahoma, 5 yards · pre-snap | +2% MIZ +1.0 pts |
| Q1 7:51 | Holding on Missouri, 10 yards | +3% OU +1.5 pts |
| Q1 2:15 | Illegal Formation on Missouri, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% OU +0.3 pts |
| Q1 0:26 | Illegal Formation on Oklahoma, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% MIZ +0.3 pts |
| Q2 14:16 | Unsportsmanlike Conduct on Oklahoma, 15 yards | +4% MIZ +1.6 pts |
| Q2 9:45 | Pass Interference on Oklahoma, 15 yards | +2% MIZ +0.7 pts |
| Q2 7:42 | Personal Foul on Oklahoma, 10 yards | 0% MIZ +1.9 pts |
| Q2 6:13 | False Start on Missouri, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% OU +0.6 pts |
| Q2 6:00 | Holding on Missouri, 10 yards | +3% OU +1.2 pts |
| Q2 4:09 | Offside on Missouri, 6 yards · pre-snap | 0% OU +0.2 pts |
| Q3 14:52 | Face Mask on Missouri, 15 yards | +3% OU +1.6 pts |
| Q3 11:00 | Pass Interference on Oklahoma, 15 yards | +3% MIZ +2.0 pts |
| Q3 2:38 | Targeting on Oklahoma, 15 yards | +5% MIZ +2.8 pts |
When it happened
Oklahoma’s chance of winning
As low as 41% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q1 7:51 | Holding on Missouri, 10 yardsJudgment calls | +3% OU | OU: Punt |
| 2 | Q2 14:16 | Unsportsmanlike Conduct on Oklahoma, 15 yardsJudgment calls | +4% MIZ | MIZ: Punt |
| 3 | Q2 11:25 | Oklahoma converted 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 38% expected | +4% OU | OU: Punt |
| 4 | Q2 8:08 | Missouri was stopped on 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 38% expected | +3% OU | MIZ: Turnover on downs |
| 5 | Q2 6:45 | Oklahoma converted 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 31% expected | +6% OU | OU: Touchdown |
| 6 | Q2 2:56 | Oklahoma converted 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 24% expected | +5% OU | OU: Touchdown |
| 7 | Q3 11:00 | Pass Interference on Oklahoma, 15 yardsJudgment calls | +3% MIZ | MIZ: Punt |
| 8 | Q3 2:38 | Targeting on Oklahoma, 15 yardsJudgment calls | +5% MIZ | MIZ: Turnover |
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Missouri 12% · Oklahoma 88%
- Final margin
- Oklahoma by 11
- Luck in points
- 4.4 for Oklahoma
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Oklahoma by 6.6
- Replay with same day's form
- Missouri 54% · Oklahoma 46% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.
Methodology and validation · All Week 13 2025 games · 
Missouri · 
Oklahoma
More from Week 13 2025
- Western Kentucky at LSU LSU 13–10 · replay 75% for the winner
- Tennessee at Florida TENN 31–11 · replay 88% for the winner
- Arkansas at Texas TEX 52–37 · replay 94% for the winner
- Mercer at Auburn AUB 62–17 · replay 97% for the winner
- Kentucky at Vanderbilt VAN 45–17 · replay 99% for the winner
- Samford at Texas A&M TA&M 48–0 · replay 100% for the winner
- Charlotte at Georgia UGA 35–3 · replay 100% for the winner
- Eastern Illinois at Alabama ALA 56–0 · replay 100% for the winner
- Coastal Carolina at South Carolina SC 51–7 · replay 100% for the winner
- Marshall at App State APP 26–24 · replay 13% for the winner
- Duke at North Carolina DUKE 32–25 · replay 13% for the winner
- Louisiana at Arkansas State UL 34–30 · replay 16% for the winner