Week 13 2025 · November 22, 2025
Eastern Illinois at Alabama, Week 13 2025: who deserved to win?
Alabama beat Eastern Illinois 56–0, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams actually played, Alabama wins 10 of 10.
Before kickoff Alabama was a 100% favorite.
Final
 Eastern Illinois Panthers | 0 |
|---|---|
 Alabama Crimson Tide | 56 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index 0 Alabama about even · 0 Eastern Illinois
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Eastern Illinois wins 0, Alabama wins 10.
- 1 EIU 7 ALA 41
- 2 EIU 0 ALA 41
- 3 EIU 0 ALA 46
- 4 EIU 0 ALA 50
- 5 EIU 0 ALA 52
- 6 EIU 0 ALA 56
- 7 EIU 3 ALA 62
- 8 EIU 0 ALA 62
- 9 EIU 0 ALA 66
- 10 EIU 0 ALA 73
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
How 4,000 replays ended
Eastern Illinois wins 0% of them, Alabama 100%. The line is what actually happened: Alabama by 56.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Eastern Illinois by 17+ | 0.0% |
| Eastern Illinois by 9–16 | 0.0% |
| Eastern Illinois by 1–8 | 0.0% |
| Level after regulation | 0.1% |
| Alabama by 1–8 | 1.3% |
| Alabama by 9–16 | 4.5% |
| Alabama by 17+ | 94.1% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
No play in this game swung win probability by luck.
Penalties: Eastern Illinois 2 for 20 yards, Alabama 4 for 29 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 3:12 | Holding on Alabama, 9 yards | 0% EIU +0.6 pts |
| Q2 1:23 | Holding on Alabama, 10 yards, wiping out the play | 0% EIU +1.5 pts |
| Q4 10:21 | False Start on Alabama, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% EIU +0.6 pts |
| Q4 6:55 | Illegal Formation on Eastern Illinois, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% ALA +0.7 pts |
| Q4 4:56 | Delay of Game on Alabama, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% EIU +0.5 pts |
| Q4 4:18 | Face Mask on Eastern Illinois, 15 yards | 0% ALA +0.8 pts |
When it happened
Alabama’s chance of winning
Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q1 13:32 | Eastern Illinois converted 3rd & 153rd & 4th downs · 14% expected | +0% EIU | EIU: Turnover |
| 2 | Q1 11:40 | Alabama was stopped on 3rd & 23rd & 4th downs · 70% expected | +0% EIU | ALA: Touchdown |
| 3 | Q1 11:09 | Alabama converted 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 82% expected | +0% ALA | ALA: Touchdown |
| 4 | Q1 9:45 | Alabama converted 3rd & 13rd & 4th downs · 76% expected | +0% ALA | ALA: Touchdown |
| 5 | Q1 8:03 | Eastern Illinois was stopped on 3rd & 223rd & 4th downs · 10% expected | +0% ALA | EIU: Punt |
| 6 | Q1 3:25 | Eastern Illinois was stopped on 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 20% expected | +0% ALA | EIU: Punt |
| 7 | Q4 6:55 | Illegal Formation on Eastern Illinois, 5 yardsPre-snap flags | +0% ALA | ALA: Touchdown |
| 8 | Q4 4:18 | Face Mask on Eastern Illinois, 15 yardsJudgment calls | +0% ALA | ALA: Touchdown |
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Eastern Illinois 0% · Alabama 100%
- Final margin
- Alabama by 56
- Luck in points
- 0.1 for Eastern Illinois
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Alabama by 56.1
- Replay with same day's form
- Eastern Illinois 0% · Alabama 100% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.
Methodology and validation · All Week 13 2025 games · 
Eastern Illinois · 
Alabama
More from Week 13 2025
- Missouri at Oklahoma OU 17–6 · replay 46% for the winner
- Western Kentucky at LSU LSU 13–10 · replay 75% for the winner
- Tennessee at Florida TENN 31–11 · replay 88% for the winner
- Arkansas at Texas TEX 52–37 · replay 94% for the winner
- Mercer at Auburn AUB 62–17 · replay 97% for the winner
- Kentucky at Vanderbilt VAN 45–17 · replay 99% for the winner
- Samford at Texas A&M TA&M 48–0 · replay 100% for the winner
- Charlotte at Georgia UGA 35–3 · replay 100% for the winner
- Coastal Carolina at South Carolina SC 51–7 · replay 100% for the winner
- Marshall at App State APP 26–24 · replay 13% for the winner
- Duke at North Carolina DUKE 32–25 · replay 13% for the winner
- Louisiana at Arkansas State UL 34–30 · replay 16% for the winner