Week 13 2025 · November 22, 2025
Tennessee at Florida, Week 13 2025: who deserved to win?
Tennessee beat Florida 31–11, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams actually played, Tennessee wins 9 of 10.
Before kickoff Tennessee was a 59% favorite.
Final
 Tennessee Volunteers | 31 |
|---|---|
 Florida Gators | 11 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +12 Tennessee about even · −12 Florida
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Tennessee wins 9, Florida wins 1.
- 1 TENN 58 FLA 20
- 2 TENN 38 FLA 7
- 3 TENN 35 FLA 10
- 4 TENN 31 FLA 10
- 5 TENN 21 FLA 3
- 6 TENN 34 FLA 19
- 7 TENN 35 FLA 24
- 8 TENN 32 FLA 24
- 9 TENN 14 FLA 10
- 10 TENN 27 FLA 34
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
How 4,000 replays ended
Tennessee wins 88% of them, Florida 12%, counting the 1% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Tennessee by 20.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Tennessee by 17+ | 51.0% |
| Tennessee by 9–16 | 23.2% |
| Tennessee by 1–8 | 13.4% |
| Level after regulation | 0.7% |
| Florida by 1–8 | 8.4% |
| Florida by 9–16 | 2.5% |
| Florida by 17+ | 0.8% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
The kicks
How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance), and what happened.
- T. Smack, 38 yds missed · 81% expected
- M. Gilbert, 26 yds made · 92% expected
- T. Smack, 46 yds made · 66% expected
- M. Gilbert, 50 yds missed · 56% expected
Penalties: Tennessee 4 for 25 yards, Florida 3 for 30 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 10:47 | Holding on Florida, 10 yards, wiping out the play | +6% TENN +3.7 pts |
| Q2 4:56 | Delay of Game on Tennessee, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% FLA +1.4 pts |
| Q2 0:41 | Personal Foul on Florida, 15 yards | 0% TENN +0.4 pts |
| Q3 12:50 | Holding on Tennessee, 10 yards | 0% FLA +0.8 pts |
| Q3 12:26 | False Start on Tennessee, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% FLA +0.3 pts |
| Q3 6:31 | False Start on Florida, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% TENN +0.8 pts |
| Q4 0:19 | False Start on Tennessee, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% FLA +2.0 pts |
When it happened
Florida’s chance of winning
Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q1 12:53 | Tennessee converted 3rd & 13rd & 4th downs · 80% expected | +1% TENN | TENN: Touchdown |
| 2 | Q1 10:47 | Holding on Florida, 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls | +6% TENN | TENN: Touchdown |
| 3 | Q1 5:33 | Tennessee converted 3rd & 13rd & 4th downs · 74% expected | +1% TENN | TENN: Touchdown |
| 4 | Q1 4:16 | Florida was stopped on 3rd & 93rd & 4th downs · 29% expected | +1% TENN | FLA: Punt |
| 5 | Q2 11:03 | Florida was stopped on 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 75% expected | +2% TENN | FLA: Punt |
| 6 | Q2 10:04 | Tennessee fumbled and recovered itFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 | +1% TENN | TENN: Touchdown |
| 7 | Q2 9:50 | Tennessee converted 3rd & 173rd & 4th downs · 22% expected | +1% TENN | TENN: Touchdown |
| 8 | Q2 1:15 | Florida was stopped on 3rd & 113rd & 4th downs · 24% expectedT. Smack missed a 38-yard field goalKicks · 81% expected for him | +1% TENN | FLA: Missed field goal |
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Tennessee 100% · Florida 0%
- Final margin
- Tennessee by 20
- Luck in points
- 5.3 for Tennessee
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Tennessee by 14.7
- Replay with same day's form
- Tennessee 88% · Florida 12% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.
Methodology and validation · All Week 13 2025 games · 
Tennessee · 
Florida
More from Week 13 2025
- Missouri at Oklahoma OU 17–6 · replay 46% for the winner
- Western Kentucky at LSU LSU 13–10 · replay 75% for the winner
- Arkansas at Texas TEX 52–37 · replay 94% for the winner
- Mercer at Auburn AUB 62–17 · replay 97% for the winner
- Kentucky at Vanderbilt VAN 45–17 · replay 99% for the winner
- Samford at Texas A&M TA&M 48–0 · replay 100% for the winner
- Charlotte at Georgia UGA 35–3 · replay 100% for the winner
- Eastern Illinois at Alabama ALA 56–0 · replay 100% for the winner
- Coastal Carolina at South Carolina SC 51–7 · replay 100% for the winner
- Marshall at App State APP 26–24 · replay 13% for the winner
- Duke at North Carolina DUKE 32–25 · replay 13% for the winner
- Louisiana at Arkansas State UL 34–30 · replay 16% for the winner