luckadjusted
CFB Week 4 · 2026

Week 13 2025 · November 22, 2025

Mercer at Auburn, Week 13 2025: who deserved to win?

Auburn beat Mercer 62–17, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams actually played, Auburn wins 10 of 10.

Before kickoff Auburn was a 96% favorite.

Final

Mercer Bears 17
Auburn Tigers 62

November 22, 2025 · Jordan-Hare Stadium · Closing line: Auburn −26.5

Luck index +3 Auburn about even · −3 Mercer

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Mercer wins 0, Auburn wins 10.

  1. 1 MER 13 AUB 17
  2. 2 MER 27 AUB 35
  3. 3 MER 17 AUB 30
  4. 4 MER 3 AUB 20
  5. 5 MER 20 AUB 41
  6. 6 MER 17 AUB 42
  7. 7 MER 17 AUB 45
  8. 8 MER 23 AUB 56
  9. 9 MER 7 AUB 45
  10. 10 MER 9 AUB 55

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Mercer wins 3% of them, Auburn 97%, counting the 1% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Auburn by 45.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Mercer by 17+0.2%
Mercer by 9–160.6%
Mercer by 1–82.0%
Level after regulation0.5%
Auburn by 1–87.6%
Auburn by 9–1612.6%
Auburn by 17+76.4%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +4.7 points to Auburn: the final margin was Auburn by 45, without the luck Auburn by 40.4. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance), and what happened.

  • R. Griffith, 41 yds made · 69% expected
  • A. McPherson, 47 yds made · 62% expected
  • A. McPherson, 49 yds made · 59% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Mercer 2 for 15 yards, Auburn 4 for 40 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 5:36 Holding on Auburn, 10 yards +1% MER +0.9 pts
Q2 13:48 Holding on Mercer, 10 yards +2% AUB +1.8 pts
Q2 11:51 Holding on Auburn, 10 yards +1% MER +1.4 pts
Q2 10:29 Offside on Mercer, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% AUB +0.8 pts
Q3 11:41 Targeting on Auburn, 15 yards 0% MER +1.6 pts
Q4 9:30 False Start on Auburn, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% MER +0.3 pts

When it happened

Auburn’s chance of winning

Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

Our in-game win probability: the score, the value of the possession and the time left, starting from the betting line. Overtime has no clock and is drawn at a fixed width. Shaded above the middle while Auburn was ahead in it, below while Mercer was.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 2:59 Mercer converted 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 27% expected +3% MER MER: Punt
2 Q1 0:28 Auburn converted 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 30% expected +2% AUB AUB: Touchdown
3 Q2 13:48 Holding on Mercer, 10 yardsJudgment calls +2% AUB AUB: Touchdown
4 Q2 11:51 Holding on Auburn, 10 yardsJudgment calls +1% MER MER: Field goal
5 Q2 10:13 Auburn converted 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 46% expected +1% AUB AUB: Touchdown
6 Q2 8:29 Auburn converted 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 39% expected +1% AUB AUB: Touchdown
7 Q2 5:34 Mercer converted 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 39% expected +1% MER MER: Field goal
8 Q2 2:48 Auburn converted 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 36% expected +1% AUB AUB: Touchdown

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Mercer 0% · Auburn 100%

Final margin
Auburn by 45
Luck in points
4.7 for Auburn
Luck-adjusted margin
Auburn by 40.3
Replay with same day's form
Mercer 3% · Auburn 97% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

None by default: our tests measured no carryover after a lucky break. Slide it up to count a break for more than its own swing. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.

Methodology and validation · All Week 13 2025 games · Mercer · Auburn

More from Week 13 2025

Every week 13 game, 2025