Week 13 2025 · November 22, 2025
Kentucky at Vanderbilt, Week 13 2025: who deserved to win?
Vanderbilt beat Kentucky 45–17, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams actually played, Vanderbilt wins 10 of 10.
Before kickoff Vanderbilt was a 68% favorite.
Final
 Kentucky Wildcats | 17 |
|---|---|
 Vanderbilt Commodores | 45 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +1 Vanderbilt about even · −1 Kentucky
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Kentucky wins 0, Vanderbilt wins 10.
- 1 UK 28 VAN 38
- 2 UK 14 VAN 30
- 3 UK 14 VAN 34
- 4 UK 14 VAN 38
- 5 UK 10 VAN 38
- 6 UK 7 VAN 38
- 7 UK 10 VAN 45
- 8 UK 10 VAN 49
- 9 UK 6 VAN 52
- 10 UK 3 VAN 56
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
How 4,000 replays ended
Kentucky wins 1% of them, Vanderbilt 99%. The line is what actually happened: Vanderbilt by 28.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Kentucky by 17+ | 0.1% |
| Kentucky by 9–16 | 0.1% |
| Kentucky by 1–8 | 0.5% |
| Level after regulation | 0.0% |
| Vanderbilt by 1–8 | 2.4% |
| Vanderbilt by 9–16 | 5.5% |
| Vanderbilt by 17+ | 91.4% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
The kicks
How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance), and what happened.
- B. Taylor, 39 yds made · 79% expected
- J. Kauwe, 47 yds made · 61% expected
Penalties: Kentucky 7 for 65 yards, Vanderbilt 7 for 70 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 6:30 | Holding on Vanderbilt, 10 yards | +1% UK +0.6 pts |
| Q1 2:24 | Ineligible Downfield on Vanderbilt, 5 yards | +2% UK +0.8 pts |
| Q2 14:15 | False Start on Kentucky, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% VAN +0.6 pts |
| Q2 14:04 | Holding on Vanderbilt, 10 yards | +1% UK +0.6 pts |
| Q2 11:32 | Ineligible Downfield on Vanderbilt, 5 yards | +1% UK +1.1 pts |
| Q2 10:01 | Holding on Kentucky, 6 yards | +1% VAN +0.4 pts |
| Q3 15:00 | Offside on Kentucky, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% VAN +0.9 pts |
| Q3 10:55 | Roughing the Passer on Kentucky, 15 yards | 0% VAN +0.5 pts |
| Q3 10:41 | Unsportsmanlike Conduct on Vanderbilt, 15 yards | 0% UK +1.6 pts |
| Q3 1:48 | Illegal Formation on Kentucky, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% VAN +0.3 pts |
| Q4 12:43 | Personal Foul on Kentucky, 15 yards | 0% VAN +0.9 pts |
| Q4 9:39 | Unsportsmanlike Conduct on Vanderbilt, 15 yards | 0% UK +0.9 pts |
| Q4 7:22 | Holding on Vanderbilt, 10 yards | 0% UK +1.1 pts |
| Q4 5:54 | Targeting on Kentucky, 14 yards | 0% VAN +1.6 pts |
When it happened
Vanderbilt’s chance of winning
Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q1 13:31 | Kentucky converted 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 48% expected | +3% UK | UK: Punt |
| 2 | Q1 11:34 | Kentucky was stopped on 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 43% expected | +3% VAN | UK: Punt |
| 3 | Q1 9:20 | Vanderbilt converted 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 49% expected | +3% VAN | VAN: Field goal |
| 4 | Q1 4:30 | Vanderbilt was stopped on 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 61% expected | +3% UK | VAN: Field goal |
| 5 | Q1 3:40 | Vanderbilt converted 4th & 33rd & 4th downs · 60% expected | +3% VAN | VAN: Field goal |
| 6 | Q2 14:54 | Kentucky was stopped on 3rd & 13rd & 4th downs · 78% expected | +4% VAN | UK: Punt |
| 7 | Q2 5:38 | Vanderbilt converted 3rd & 93rd & 4th downs · 35% expected | +2% VAN | VAN: Touchdown |
| 8 | Q2 1:53 | Vanderbilt was stopped on 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 81% expected | +2% UK | VAN: Touchdown |
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Kentucky 0% · Vanderbilt 100%
- Final margin
- Vanderbilt by 28
- Luck in points
- 2.5 for Kentucky
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Vanderbilt by 30.5
- Replay with same day's form
- Kentucky 1% · Vanderbilt 99% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.
Methodology and validation · All Week 13 2025 games · 
Kentucky · 
Vanderbilt
More from Week 13 2025
- Missouri at Oklahoma OU 17–6 · replay 46% for the winner
- Western Kentucky at LSU LSU 13–10 · replay 75% for the winner
- Tennessee at Florida TENN 31–11 · replay 88% for the winner
- Arkansas at Texas TEX 52–37 · replay 94% for the winner
- Mercer at Auburn AUB 62–17 · replay 97% for the winner
- Samford at Texas A&M TA&M 48–0 · replay 100% for the winner
- Charlotte at Georgia UGA 35–3 · replay 100% for the winner
- Eastern Illinois at Alabama ALA 56–0 · replay 100% for the winner
- Coastal Carolina at South Carolina SC 51–7 · replay 100% for the winner
- Marshall at App State APP 26–24 · replay 13% for the winner
- Duke at North Carolina DUKE 32–25 · replay 13% for the winner
- Louisiana at Arkansas State UL 34–30 · replay 16% for the winner