Week 13 2025 · November 22, 2025
Arkansas at Texas, Week 13 2025: who deserved to win?
Texas beat Arkansas 52–37, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams actually played, Texas wins 9 of 10.
Before kickoff Texas was a 71% favorite.
Final
 Arkansas Razorbacks | 37 |
|---|---|
 Texas Longhorns | 52 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +6 Texas about even · −6 Arkansas
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Arkansas wins 1, Texas wins 9.
- 1 ARK 34 TEX 28
- 2 ARK 28 TEX 31
- 3 ARK 31 TEX 38
- 4 ARK 28 TEX 41
- 5 ARK 14 TEX 31
- 6 ARK 17 TEX 37
- 7 ARK 28 TEX 52
- 8 ARK 17 TEX 45
- 9 ARK 10 TEX 44
- 10 ARK 6 TEX 45
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
How 4,000 replays ended
Arkansas wins 6% of them, Texas 94%, counting the 1% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Texas by 15.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Arkansas by 17+ | 0.3% |
| Arkansas by 9–16 | 1.0% |
| Arkansas by 1–8 | 4.3% |
| Level after regulation | 0.8% |
| Texas by 1–8 | 10.3% |
| Texas by 9–16 | 17.9% |
| Texas by 17+ | 65.5% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
The kicks
How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance), and what happened.
- S. Starzyk, 51 yds made · 53% expected
- S. Starzyk, 33 yds made · 84% expected
- M. Shipley, 44 yds made · 66% expected
- S. Starzyk, 33 yds made · 85% expected
Penalties: Arkansas 8 for 60 yards, Texas 7 for 72 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 12:11 | Offside on Arkansas, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% TEX +0.8 pts |
| Q2 8:41 | Holding on Texas, 7 yards | 0% ARK +2.0 pts |
| Q2 5:13 | Illegal Formation on Arkansas, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% TEX +0.4 pts |
| Q2 4:42 | Pass Interference on Arkansas, 15 yards | +4% TEX +1.8 pts |
| Q2 3:02 | Holding on Arkansas, 10 yards | 0% TEX +0.1 pts |
| Q2 2:03 | Holding on Texas, 10 yards | 0% ARK +0.8 pts |
| Q3 13:10 | Illegal Substitution on Arkansas, 2 yards · pre-snap | +1% TEX +0.5 pts |
| Q3 2:43 | Targeting on Texas, 15 yards | +1% ARK +1.6 pts |
| Q3 1:50 | Offside on Arkansas, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% TEX +0.7 pts |
| Q3 1:01 | False Start on Texas, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% ARK +0.3 pts |
| Q3 0:43 | Holding on Arkansas, 8 yards | 0% TEX +0.5 pts |
| Q4 9:50 | Holding on Texas, 10 yards | 0% ARK +0.7 pts |
| Q4 3:26 | Holding on Texas, 10 yards, wiping out the play | 0% ARK +1.6 pts |
| Q4 1:17 | Holding on Arkansas, 10 yards, wiping out the play | +1% TEX +1.3 pts |
| Q4 0:20 | Pass Interference on Texas, 15 yards | 0% ARK +1.6 pts |
When it happened
Texas’s chance of winning
Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q1 13:11 | S. Starzyk made a 51-yard field goalKicks · 53% expected for him, 3 of 6 from 45+ before | +4% ARK | ARK: Field goal |
| 2 | Q1 5:26 | Texas converted 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 46% expected | +3% TEX | TEX: Touchdown |
| 3 | Q1 0:39 | Arkansas converted 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 33% expected | +4% ARK | ARK: Touchdown |
| 4 | Q2 7:24 | Arkansas converted 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 42% expected | +3% ARK | ARK: Punt |
| 5 | Q2 6:54 | Texas was stopped on 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 42% expected | +3% ARK | TEX: Punt |
| 6 | Q2 5:20 | Arkansas was stopped on 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 45% expected | +3% TEX | ARK: Punt |
| 7 | Q2 4:42 | Pass Interference on Arkansas, 15 yardsJudgment calls | +4% TEX | TEX: Punt |
| 8 | Q2 3:26 | Texas converted 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 36% expected | +4% TEX | TEX: Punt |
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Arkansas 4% · Texas 96%
- Final margin
- Texas by 15
- Luck in points
- 4.8 for Texas
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Texas by 10.2
- Replay with same day's form
- Arkansas 6% · Texas 94% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.
Methodology and validation · All Week 13 2025 games · 
Arkansas · 
Texas
More from Week 13 2025
- Missouri at Oklahoma OU 17–6 · replay 46% for the winner
- Western Kentucky at LSU LSU 13–10 · replay 75% for the winner
- Tennessee at Florida TENN 31–11 · replay 88% for the winner
- Mercer at Auburn AUB 62–17 · replay 97% for the winner
- Kentucky at Vanderbilt VAN 45–17 · replay 99% for the winner
- Samford at Texas A&M TA&M 48–0 · replay 100% for the winner
- Charlotte at Georgia UGA 35–3 · replay 100% for the winner
- Eastern Illinois at Alabama ALA 56–0 · replay 100% for the winner
- Coastal Carolina at South Carolina SC 51–7 · replay 100% for the winner
- Marshall at App State APP 26–24 · replay 13% for the winner
- Duke at North Carolina DUKE 32–25 · replay 13% for the winner
- Louisiana at Arkansas State UL 34–30 · replay 16% for the winner