luckadjusted
CFB Week 4 · 2026

Week 13 2025 · November 22, 2025

Samford at Texas A&M, Week 13 2025: who deserved to win?

Texas A&M beat Samford 48–0, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams actually played, Texas A&M wins 10 of 10.

Before kickoff Texas A&M was a 100% favorite.

Final

Samford Bulldogs 0
Texas A&M Aggies 48

November 22, 2025 · Kyle Field · Closing line: Texas A&M −54.5

Luck index 0 Texas A&M about even · 0 Samford

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Samford wins 0, Texas A&M wins 10.

  1. 1 SAM 0 TA&M 20
  2. 2 SAM 0 TA&M 27
  3. 3 SAM 3 TA&M 34
  4. 4 SAM 10 TA&M 45
  5. 5 SAM 0 TA&M 38
  6. 6 SAM 0 TA&M 41
  7. 7 SAM 0 TA&M 45
  8. 8 SAM 0 TA&M 48
  9. 9 SAM 0 TA&M 52
  10. 10 SAM 0 TA&M 61

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Samford wins 0% of them, Texas A&M 100%. The line is what actually happened: Texas A&M by 48.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Samford by 17+0.0%
Samford by 9–160.0%
Samford by 1–80.1%
Level after regulation0.1%
Texas A&M by 1–80.4%
Texas A&M by 9–162.9%
Texas A&M by 17+96.7%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

No play in this game swung win probability by luck.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +9.5 points to Texas A&M: the final margin was Texas A&M by 48, without the luck Texas A&M by 38.5. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance), and what happened.

  • J. Zirkel, 36 yds missed · 79% expected
  • J. Zirkel, 25 yds made · 90% expected
  • J. Zirkel, 39 yds made · 74% expected
  • J. Garner, 38 yds missed · 76% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Samford 3 for 32 yards, Texas A&M 5 for 50 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q2 7:09 Holding on Texas A&M, 10 yards 0% SAM +0.6 pts
Q2 7:04 Holding on Texas A&M, 10 yards 0% SAM +0.6 pts
Q3 12:18 Holding on Texas A&M, 10 yards 0% SAM +0.6 pts
Q3 9:08 Pass Interference on Samford, 12 yards 0% TA&M +1.4 pts
Q3 6:04 Roughing the Passer on Texas A&M, 15 yards 0% SAM +1.6 pts
Q3 5:08 False Start on Samford, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% TA&M +0.6 pts
Q4 9:06 Personal Foul on Samford, 15 yards 0% TA&M +1.6 pts
Q4 8:53 False Start on Texas A&M, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% SAM +0.3 pts

When it happened

Texas A&M’s chance of winning

Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

Our in-game win probability: the score, the value of the possession and the time left, starting from the betting line. Overtime has no clock and is drawn at a fixed width. Shaded above the middle while Texas A&M was ahead in it, below while Samford was.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 13:55 Texas A&M converted 3rd & 13rd & 4th downs · 76% expected +0% TA&M TA&M: Touchdown
2 Q1 10:46 Samford was stopped on 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 25% expected +0% TA&M SAM: Punt
3 Q1 9:41 Texas A&M was stopped on 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 34% expected +0% TA&M TA&M: Punt
4 Q1 9:20 Samford was stopped on 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 19% expected +0% TA&M SAM: Punt
5 Q1 8:06 Texas A&M converted 3rd & 23rd & 4th downs · 63% expected +0% TA&M TA&M: Touchdown
6 Q1 6:35 Texas A&M converted 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 27% expected +0% TA&M TA&M: Touchdown
7 Q1 4:50 Texas A&M was stopped on 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 34% expected +0% TA&M TA&M: Touchdown
8 Q1 4:12 Texas A&M converted 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 75% expected +0% TA&M TA&M: Touchdown

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Samford 0% · Texas A&M 100%

Final margin
Texas A&M by 48
Luck in points
9.5 for Texas A&M
Luck-adjusted margin
Texas A&M by 38.5
Replay with same day's form
Samford 0% · Texas A&M 100% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

None by default: our tests measured no carryover after a lucky break. Slide it up to count a break for more than its own swing. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.

Methodology and validation · All Week 13 2025 games · Samford · Texas A&M

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