Week 13 2025 · November 20, 2025
Louisiana at Arkansas State, Week 13 2025: who deserved to win?
Louisiana beat Arkansas State 34–30, a result the replays rarely give: with the way both teams actually played, Arkansas State wins 8 of 10. Luck ran its way: kicks alone were worth 11 points of win probability to Louisiana.
Before kickoff Arkansas State was a 56% favorite. The biggest swing (Q1, 7:50 left): Return touchdown by Arkansas State, worth 25 points of win probability to Arkansas State.
Final
 Louisiana Ragin' Cajuns | 34 |
|---|---|
 Arkansas State Red Wolves | 30 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +84 Louisiana very lucky · −84 Arkansas State
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Louisiana wins 2, Arkansas State wins 8.
- 1 UL 34 ARST 21
- 2 UL 17 ARST 14
- 3 UL 7 ARST 10
- 4 UL 7 ARST 14
- 5 UL 10 ARST 21
- 6 UL 6 ARST 20
- 7 UL 14 ARST 31
- 8 UL 14 ARST 35
- 9 UL 3 ARST 29
- 10 UL 7 ARST 40
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
How 4,000 replays ended
Louisiana wins 16% of them, Arkansas State 84%, counting the 2% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Louisiana by 4.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Louisiana by 17+ | 1.9% |
| Louisiana by 9–16 | 4.5% |
| Louisiana by 1–8 | 9.3% |
| Level after regulation | 2.0% |
| Arkansas State by 1–8 | 20.0% |
| Arkansas State by 9–16 | 18.9% |
| Arkansas State by 17+ | 43.4% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
The kicks
How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance), and what happened.
- C. Van Andel, 21 yds made · 95% expected
- C. Van Andel, 41 yds made · 72% expected
- T. Sterner, 41 yds made · 71% expected
- T. Sterner, 50 yds made · 54% expected
- C. Van Andel, 24 yds made · 94% expected
Penalties: Louisiana 11 for 90 yards, Arkansas State 0 for 0 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 14:54 | Holding on Louisiana, 10 yards | +1% ARST +1.3 pts |
| Q1 14:02 | False Start on Louisiana, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% ARST +0.3 pts |
| Q1 9:05 | Holding on Louisiana, 10 yards | +1% ARST +0.6 pts |
| Q1 7:45 | False Start on Louisiana, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% ARST +0.8 pts |
| Q1 7:34 | Holding on Louisiana, 10 yards | +1% ARST +0.6 pts |
| Q2 9:00 | Intentional Grounding on Louisiana, 14 yards | +2% ARST +0.9 pts |
| Q3 12:31 | Illegal Formation on Louisiana, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% ARST +0.3 pts |
| Q4 5:13 | Delay of Game on Louisiana, 5 yards · pre-snap | +2% ARST +0.4 pts |
| Q4 4:17 | Holding on Louisiana, 10 yards | +3% ARST +0.6 pts |
| Q4 2:33 | Delay of Game on Louisiana, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% ARST +0.4 pts |
| Q4 0:06 | Pass Interference on Louisiana, 11 yards | 0% ARST +3.2 pts |
When it happened
Arkansas State’s chance of winning
As low as 0% and as high as 80%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q1 7:50 | Louisiana fumbled and Arkansas State recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50Return touchdown by Arkansas StateSpecial teams | +25% ARST | UL: Touchdown |
| 2 | Q1 3:26 | Arkansas State fumbled and Louisiana recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 | +6% UL | ARST: Field goal |
| 3 | Q3 3:36 | Arkansas State was stopped on 3rd & 23rd & 4th downs · 65% expected | +7% UL | ARST: Turnover on downs |
| 4 | Q4 13:35 | T. Sterner made a 50-yard field goalKicks · 54% expected for him, 2 of 5 from 45+ before | +7% UL | UL: Punt |
| 5 | Q4 12:43 | Arkansas State was stopped on 3rd & 13rd & 4th downs · 78% expected | +7% UL | ARST: Field goal |
| 6 | Q4 6:44 | Arkansas State was stopped on 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 32% expected | +6% UL | ARST: Field goal |
| 7 | Q4 4:25 | Arkansas State was stopped on 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 33% expected | +6% UL | ARST: Punt |
| 8 | Q4 0:57 | Arkansas State converted 4th & 93rd & 4th downs · 30% expected | +12% ARST | ARST: End of game |
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Louisiana 40% · Arkansas State 60%
- Final margin
- Louisiana by 4
- Luck in points
- 5.8 for Louisiana
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Arkansas State by 1.8
- Replay with same day's form
- Louisiana 16% · Arkansas State 84% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.
Methodology and validation · All Week 13 2025 games · 
Louisiana · 
Arkansas State
More from Week 13 2025
- Marshall at App State APP 26–24 · replay 13% for the winner
- Georgia State at Troy TROY 31–19 · replay 45% for the winner
- Southern Miss at South Alabama USA 42–35 · replay 71% for the winner
- UL Monroe at Texas State TXST 31–14 · replay 82% for the winner
- Washington State at James Madison JMU 24–20 · replay 89% for the winner
- Old Dominion at Georgia Southern ODU 45–10 · replay 99% for the winner
- Coastal Carolina at South Carolina SC 51–7 · replay 100% for the winner
- Duke at North Carolina DUKE 32–25 · replay 13% for the winner
- Florida State at NC State NCSU 21–11 · replay 18% for the winner
- Missouri State at Kennesaw State KENN 41–34 · replay 23% for the winner
- UConn at Florida Atlantic CONN 48–45 · replay 25% for the winner
- Utah State at Fresno State USU 28–17 · replay 30% for the winner