Week 11 2025 · November 8, 2025
Georgia State at Coastal Carolina, Week 11 2025: who deserved to win?
Coastal Carolina beat Georgia State 40–27, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams actually played, Coastal Carolina wins 9 of 10.
Before kickoff Coastal Carolina was a 68% favorite. The biggest swing (Q2, 11:36 left): Georgia State was stopped on 3rd & 21, worth 9 points of win probability to Georgia State.
Final
 Georgia State Panthers | 27 |
|---|---|
 Coastal Carolina Chanticleers | 40 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +8 Coastal Carolina about even · −8 Georgia State
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Georgia State wins 1, Coastal Carolina wins 9.
- 1 GAST 38 CCU 31
- 2 GAST 24 CCU 27
- 3 GAST 17 CCU 24
- 4 GAST 31 CCU 44
- 5 GAST 10 CCU 26
- 6 GAST 9 CCU 27
- 7 GAST 7 CCU 30
- 8 GAST 7 CCU 34
- 9 GAST 7 CCU 38
- 10 GAST 7 CCU 45
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
How 4,000 replays ended
Georgia State wins 8% of them, Coastal Carolina 92%, counting the 1% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Coastal Carolina by 13.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Georgia State by 17+ | 0.5% |
| Georgia State by 9–16 | 1.6% |
| Georgia State by 1–8 | 5.5% |
| Level after regulation | 0.9% |
| Coastal Carolina by 1–8 | 11.9% |
| Coastal Carolina by 9–16 | 17.6% |
| Coastal Carolina by 17+ | 62.1% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
The kicks
How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance), and what happened.
- K. Afrookhteh, 30 yds made · 89% expected
- K. Afrookhteh, 34 yds made · 84% expected
- K. Afrookhteh, 28 yds made · 91% expected
- P. Laforge, 47 yds made · 59% expected
Penalties: Georgia State 6 for 40 yards, Coastal Carolina 5 for 40 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q2 15:00 | Pass Interference on Georgia State, 15 yards | +2% CCU +1.0 pts |
| Q2 15:00 | False Start on Coastal Carolina, 5 yards · pre-snap | +3% GAST +1.4 pts |
| Q2 15:00 | False Start on Coastal Carolina, 5 yards · pre-snap | +2% GAST +0.8 pts |
| Q2 11:36 | False Start on Georgia State, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% CCU +0.7 pts |
| Q2 5:03 | Holding on Coastal Carolina, 10 yards, wiping out the play | +8% GAST +4.0 pts |
| Q2 3:41 | False Start on Georgia State, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% CCU +0.4 pts |
| Q2 3:41 | False Start on Georgia State, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% CCU +0.4 pts |
| Q3 12:43 | False Start on Georgia State, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% CCU +0.8 pts |
| Q3 9:39 | False Start on Georgia State, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% CCU +0.8 pts |
| Q4 11:35 | Roughing the Passer on Coastal Carolina, 15 yards | 0% GAST +1.8 pts |
| Q4 11:35 | Offside on Coastal Carolina, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% CCU +0.4 pts |
When it happened
Coastal Carolina’s chance of winning
Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q1 15:00 | Georgia State was stopped on 3rd & 13rd & 4th downs · 82% expected | +4% CCU | GAST: Punt |
| 2 | Q1 11:34 | Georgia State converted 3rd & 13rd & 4th downs · 81% expectedGeorgia State was stopped on 3rd & 13rd & 4th downs · 76% expected | +8% CCU | GAST: Touchdown |
| 3 | Q1 5:07 | Georgia State converted 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 75% expectedCoastal Carolina converted 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 36% expected | +2% CCU | GAST: Touchdown |
| 4 | Q2 11:36 | Georgia State was stopped on 3rd & 213rd & 4th downs · 20% expectedGeorgia State fumbled and recovered itFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50K. Afrookhteh made a 30-yard field goalKicks · 89% expected for himFalse Start on Georgia State, 5 yardsPre-snap flags | +9% GAST | GAST: Punt |
| 5 | Q2 9:36 | Coastal Carolina was stopped on 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 43% expectedCoastal Carolina converted 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 80% expectedCoastal Carolina was stopped on 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 32% expectedCoastal Carolina fumbled and recovered itFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 | +2% CCU | CCU: Field goal |
| 6 | Q2 5:03 | Coastal Carolina was stopped on 3rd & 203rd & 4th downs · 20% expectedHolding on Coastal Carolina, 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls | +8% GAST | CCU: Punt |
| 7 | Q2 3:41 | False Start on Georgia State, 5 yardsPre-snap flagsFalse Start on Georgia State, 5 yardsPre-snap flags | +2% CCU | CCU: Field goal |
| 8 | Q3 9:39 | Georgia State was stopped on 3rd & 113rd & 4th downs · 30% expectedP. Laforge made a 47-yard field goalKicks · 59% expected for him, 0 of 1 from 45+ beforeFalse Start on Georgia State, 5 yardsPre-snap flags | +3% CCU | GAST: Punt |
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Georgia State 45% · Coastal Carolina 55%
- Final margin
- Coastal Carolina by 13
- Luck in points
- 12.4 for Coastal Carolina
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Coastal Carolina by 0.6
- Replay with same day's form
- Georgia State 8% · Coastal Carolina 92% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.
Methodology and validation · All Week 11 2025 games · 
Georgia State · 
Coastal Carolina
More from Week 11 2025
- Texas State at Louisiana UL 42–39 · replay 14% for the winner
- Southern Miss at Arkansas State USM 27–21 · replay 38% for the winner
- James Madison at Marshall JMU 35–23 · replay 73% for the winner
- Georgia Southern at App State GASO 25–23 · replay 82% for the winner
- Sam Houston at Oregon State SHSU 21–17 · replay 2% for the winner
- Air Force at San José State AF 26–16 · replay 5% for the winner
- Iowa State at TCU ISU 20–17 · replay 22% for the winner
- Wake Forest at Virginia WAKE 16–9 · replay 22% for the winner
- Washington at Wisconsin WIS 13–10 · replay 23% for the winner
- Louisiana Tech at Delaware DEL 25–24 · replay 25% for the winner
- Bowling Green at Eastern Michigan EMU 27–21 · replay 26% for the winner
- Stanford at North Carolina UNC 20–15 · replay 34% for the winner