Week 11 2025 · November 8, 2025
Southern Miss at Arkansas State, Week 11 2025: who deserved to win?
Southern Miss beat Arkansas State 27–21, but the replays lean toward Arkansas State: it takes 6 of 10 with the same day's form.
Southern Miss won on an off day: it played far below what the matchup promised. In a fresh game against Arkansas State it would win 70% of the time; with this day’s form, 38%. The numbers
Before kickoff Southern Miss was a 66% favorite.
Final
 Southern Miss Golden Eagles | 27 |
|---|---|
 Arkansas State Red Wolves | 21 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +62 Southern Miss very lucky · −62 Arkansas State
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Southern Miss wins 4, Arkansas State wins 6.
- 1 USM 52 ARST 27
- 2 USM 52 ARST 39
- 3 USM 34 ARST 27
- 4 USM 34 ARST 31
- 5 USM 35 ARST 38
- 6 USM 27 ARST 34
- 7 USM 26 ARST 37
- 8 USM 29 ARST 45
- 9 USM 17 ARST 38
- 10 USM 24 ARST 56
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
Southern Miss won on an off day
It played far below what the matchup promised. In a fresh game against Arkansas State it would win 70% of the time; with this day’s form, 38%.
Same teams, fresh game
Replay with same day's form
32 points apart for Southern Miss: the gap is how differently this game went from what the two teams usually are.
| Unit | This game | Usual level | Better or worse than usual |
|---|---|---|---|
| Southern Miss offenseEPA per play gained | +0.22 | +0.05 | better by 0.17 |
| Southern Miss defenseEPA per play allowed | +0.19 | +0.12 | worse by 0.08 |
| Arkansas State offenseEPA per play gained | +0.19 | +0.02 | better by 0.17 |
| Arkansas State defenseEPA per play allowed | +0.22 | +0.07 | worse by 0.15 |
EPA (expected points added) per play on competitive snaps, turnovers left out because they are valued as luck. Usual level: the team’s earlier games this season plus half of last season, pulled toward the league average. One team’s defense and the other team’s offense are the same snaps, so one game can’t fully say whose day it was; it shows how far this one was from both teams’ norms.
How 4,000 replays ended
Southern Miss wins 38% of them, Arkansas State 62%, counting the 4% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Southern Miss by 6.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Southern Miss by 17+ | 10.4% |
| Southern Miss by 9–16 | 9.8% |
| Southern Miss by 1–8 | 15.7% |
| Level after regulation | 4.0% |
| Arkansas State by 1–8 | 19.0% |
| Arkansas State by 9–16 | 16.6% |
| Arkansas State by 17+ | 24.5% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
The kicks
How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance), and what happened.
- C. Wilbanks, 28 yds made · 89% expected
- C. Wilbanks, 37 yds made · 78% expected
Penalties: Southern Miss 11 for 95 yards, Arkansas State 2 for 10 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q2 12:52 | False Start on Arkansas State, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% USM +0.7 pts |
| Q2 12:21 | Holding on Southern Miss, 10 yards | 0% ARST +0.2 pts |
| Q2 9:38 | Illegal Snap on Southern Miss, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% ARST +0.5 pts |
| Q2 7:45 | False Start on Arkansas State, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% USM +0.8 pts |
| Q2 6:31 | Holding on Southern Miss, 10 yards | +1% ARST +1.0 pts |
| Q2 5:47 | False Start on Southern Miss, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% ARST +0.7 pts |
| Q2 1:30 | Holding on Southern Miss, 10 yards | +1% ARST +0.7 pts |
| Q3 11:29 | False Start on Southern Miss, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% ARST +0.7 pts |
| Q3 0:47 | Unnecessary Roughness on Southern Miss, 15 yards | +2% ARST +1.6 pts |
| Q4 9:49 | Holding on Southern Miss, 10 yards, wiping out the play | +4% ARST +3.0 pts |
| Q4 5:50 | Delay of Game on Southern Miss, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% USM +0.2 pts |
| Q4 1:15 | Delay of Game on Southern Miss, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% ARST +0.1 pts |
| Q4 0:43 | Pass Interference on Southern Miss, 15 yards | +2% ARST +0.5 pts |
When it happened
Arkansas State’s chance of winning
Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q1 14:53 | Arkansas State fumbled and Southern Miss recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 | +4% USM | ARST: Touchdown |
| 2 | Q1 8:12 | Southern Miss was stopped on 3rd & 23rd & 4th downs · 58% expected | +3% ARST | USM: Turnover on downs |
| 3 | Q1 5:05 | Southern Miss converted 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 56% expected | +3% USM | USM: Touchdown |
| 4 | Q2 14:25 | Arkansas State was stopped on 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 44% expected | +3% USM | ARST: Punt |
| 5 | Q2 13:02 | Arkansas State converted 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 44% expected | +3% ARST | ARST: Turnover |
| 6 | Q3 12:47 | Arkansas State was stopped on 3rd & 13rd & 4th downs · 79% expected | +3% USM | ARST: Punt |
| 7 | Q3 7:14 | Arkansas State converted 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 49% expected | +3% ARST | ARST: Turnover |
| 8 | Q4 9:49 | Holding on Southern Miss, 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls | +4% ARST | ARST: Punt |
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Southern Miss 93% · Arkansas State 7%
- Final margin
- Southern Miss by 6
- Luck in points
- 2.3 for Arkansas State
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Southern Miss by 8.3
- Replay with same day's form
- Southern Miss 38% · Arkansas State 62% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.
Methodology and validation · All Week 11 2025 games · 
Southern Miss · 
Arkansas State
More from Week 11 2025
- Texas State at Louisiana UL 42–39 · replay 14% for the winner
- James Madison at Marshall JMU 35–23 · replay 73% for the winner
- Georgia Southern at App State GASO 25–23 · replay 82% for the winner
- Georgia State at Coastal Carolina CCU 40–27 · replay 92% for the winner
- Sam Houston at Oregon State SHSU 21–17 · replay 2% for the winner
- Air Force at San José State AF 26–16 · replay 5% for the winner
- Iowa State at TCU ISU 20–17 · replay 22% for the winner
- Wake Forest at Virginia WAKE 16–9 · replay 22% for the winner
- Washington at Wisconsin WIS 13–10 · replay 23% for the winner
- Louisiana Tech at Delaware DEL 25–24 · replay 25% for the winner
- Bowling Green at Eastern Michigan EMU 27–21 · replay 26% for the winner
- Stanford at North Carolina UNC 20–15 · replay 34% for the winner