Week 11 2025 · November 6, 2025
Georgia Southern at App State, Week 11 2025: who deserved to win?
Georgia Southern beat App State 25–23, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams actually played, Georgia Southern wins 8 of 10. App State had the bounces: kicks alone were worth 8 points of win probability to App State.
An off day for App State: it played far below what the matchup promised. In a fresh game against Georgia Southern it would win 57% of the time; with this day’s form, 18%. The numbers
Before kickoff App State was a 61% favorite. The biggest swing (Q4, 7:18 left): App State converted 4th & 14, worth 13 points of win probability to App State.
Final
 Georgia Southern Eagles | 25 |
|---|---|
 App State Mountaineers | 23 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +18 Georgia Southern about even · −18 App State
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Georgia Southern wins 8, App State wins 2.
- 1 GASO 42 APP 7
- 2 GASO 41 APP 14
- 3 GASO 34 APP 13
- 4 GASO 35 APP 17
- 5 GASO 31 APP 17
- 6 GASO 31 APP 21
- 7 GASO 27 APP 21
- 8 GASO 27 APP 24
- 9 GASO 10 APP 13
- 10 GASO 10 APP 24
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
An off day for App State
It played far below what the matchup promised. In a fresh game against Georgia Southern it would win 57% of the time; with this day’s form, 18%.
Same teams, fresh game
Replay with same day's form
39 points apart for App State: the gap is how differently this game went from what the two teams usually are.
| Unit | This game | Usual level | Better or worse than usual |
|---|---|---|---|
| Georgia Southern offenseEPA per play gained | +0.09 | +0.09 | better by 0.00 |
| Georgia Southern defenseEPA per play allowed | +0.08 | +0.15 | better by 0.07 |
| App State offenseEPA per play gained | +0.08 | +0.11 | worse by 0.04 |
| App State defenseEPA per play allowed | +0.09 | +0.14 | better by 0.05 |
EPA (expected points added) per play on competitive snaps, turnovers left out because they are valued as luck. Usual level: the team’s earlier games this season plus half of last season, pulled toward the league average. One team’s defense and the other team’s offense are the same snaps, so one game can’t fully say whose day it was; it shows how far this one was from both teams’ norms.
How 4,000 replays ended
Georgia Southern wins 82% of them, App State 18%, counting the 4% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Georgia Southern by 2.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Georgia Southern by 17+ | 38.3% |
| Georgia Southern by 9–16 | 20.1% |
| Georgia Southern by 1–8 | 19.1% |
| Level after regulation | 4.5% |
| App State by 1–8 | 11.3% |
| App State by 9–16 | 4.4% |
| App State by 17+ | 2.3% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
The kicks
How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance), and what happened.
- T. Bryant, 21 yds made · 94% expected
- T. Bryant, 45 yds missed · 64% expected
- T. Bryant, 26 yds made · 90% expected
- D. De Freitas, 36 yds made · 80% expected
- T. Bryant, 23 yds made · 93% expected
- T. Bryant, 24 yds made · 92% expected
Penalties: Georgia Southern 6 for 40 yards, App State 4 for 40 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 9:13 | False Start on Georgia Southern, 5 yards · pre-snap | +2% APP +1.1 pts |
| Q1 7:27 | Illegal Use of Hands on App State, 15 yards | +4% GASO +1.6 pts |
| Q1 5:47 | Illegal Snap on Georgia Southern, 5 yards · pre-snap | +2% APP +1.0 pts |
| Q1 3:34 | False Start on App State, 5 yards · pre-snap | +2% GASO +0.8 pts |
| Q2 7:24 | Holding on App State, 10 yards | +1% GASO +0.6 pts |
| Q3 11:51 | Illegal Snap on Georgia Southern, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% APP +0.7 pts |
| Q3 10:56 | Holding on Georgia Southern, 10 yards | +1% APP +1.1 pts |
| Q3 4:33 | False Start on Georgia Southern, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% APP +0.3 pts |
| Q4 5:24 | Illegal Block on App State, 10 yards | +1% GASO +0.6 pts |
| Q4 1:47 | Holding on Georgia Southern, 10 yards, wiping out the play | +6% APP +0.8 pts |
When it happened
App State’s chance of winning
As low as 0% and as high as 60%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q1 7:55 | Georgia Southern converted 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 37% expected | +5% GASO | GASO: Field goal |
| 2 | Q2 13:56 | App State converted 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 31% expected | +6% APP | APP: Turnover on downs |
| 3 | Q2 12:29 | App State was stopped on 3rd & 13rd & 4th downs · 80% expected | +5% GASO | APP: Turnover on downs |
| 4 | Q2 9:58 | Georgia Southern converted 3rd & 113rd & 4th downs · 30% expected | +6% GASO | GASO: Touchdown |
| 5 | Q3 1:52 | App State was stopped on 3rd & 13rd & 4th downs · 80% expected | +5% GASO | APP: End of half |
| 6 | Q4 7:18 | App State converted 4th & 143rd & 4th downs · 24% expected | +13% APP | APP: Turnover |
| 7 | Q4 1:47 | Holding on Georgia Southern, 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls | +6% APP | – |
| 8 | Q4 0:34 | Georgia Southern converted 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 81% expected | +6% GASO | GASO: End of game |
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Georgia Southern 91% · App State 9%
- Final margin
- Georgia Southern by 2
- Luck in points
- 7.4 for App State
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Georgia Southern by 9.4
- Replay with same day's form
- Georgia Southern 82% · App State 18% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.
Methodology and validation · All Week 11 2025 games · 
Georgia Southern · 
App State
More from Week 11 2025
- Texas State at Louisiana UL 42–39 · replay 14% for the winner
- Southern Miss at Arkansas State USM 27–21 · replay 38% for the winner
- James Madison at Marshall JMU 35–23 · replay 73% for the winner
- Georgia State at Coastal Carolina CCU 40–27 · replay 92% for the winner
- Sam Houston at Oregon State SHSU 21–17 · replay 2% for the winner
- Air Force at San José State AF 26–16 · replay 5% for the winner
- Iowa State at TCU ISU 20–17 · replay 22% for the winner
- Wake Forest at Virginia WAKE 16–9 · replay 22% for the winner
- Washington at Wisconsin WIS 13–10 · replay 23% for the winner
- Louisiana Tech at Delaware DEL 25–24 · replay 25% for the winner
- Bowling Green at Eastern Michigan EMU 27–21 · replay 26% for the winner
- Stanford at North Carolina UNC 20–15 · replay 34% for the winner