Week 11 2025 · November 8, 2025
James Madison at Marshall, Week 11 2025: who deserved to win?
James Madison beat Marshall 35–23, and the replays lean its way: with the same day's form, it wins 7 of 10.
Before kickoff James Madison was an 81% favorite.
Final
 James Madison Dukes | 35 |
|---|---|
 Marshall Thundering Herd | 23 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +27 James Madison lucky · −27 Marshall
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. James Madison wins 7, Marshall wins 3.
- 1 JMU 42 MRSH 7
- 2 JMU 48 MRSH 24
- 3 JMU 35 MRSH 16
- 4 JMU 28 MRSH 14
- 5 JMU 17 MRSH 6
- 6 JMU 20 MRSH 14
- 7 JMU 17 MRSH 14
- 8 JMU 16 MRSH 19
- 9 JMU 31 MRSH 38
- 10 JMU 14 MRSH 31
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
How 4,000 replays ended
James Madison wins 73% of them, Marshall 27%, counting the 5% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: James Madison by 12.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| James Madison by 17+ | 31.9% |
| James Madison by 9–16 | 18.3% |
| James Madison by 1–8 | 19.8% |
| Level after regulation | 5.1% |
| Marshall by 1–8 | 13.1% |
| Marshall by 9–16 | 6.8% |
| Marshall by 17+ | 5.1% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
The kicks
How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance), and what happened.
- M. Suarez, 49 yds missed · 55% expected
- L. Quinn, 49 yds made · 56% expected
- L. Quinn, 52 yds made · 51% expected
- L. Quinn, 23 yds made · 94% expected
- Extra point missed · 98% expected
Penalties: James Madison 2 for 20 yards, Marshall 6 for 55 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 11:55 | False Start on Marshall, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% JMU +0.7 pts |
| Q1 10:23 | Unnecessary Roughness on Marshall, 15 yards | +2% JMU +1.6 pts |
| Q1 2:16 | False Start on Marshall, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% JMU +0.4 pts |
| Q1 0:04 | Pass Interference on James Madison, 15 yards | 0% MRSH +2.5 pts |
| Q2 7:58 | Pass Interference on Marshall, 15 yards | +1% JMU +1.2 pts |
| Q2 2:42 | Holding on Marshall, 10 yards | +1% JMU +0.5 pts |
| Q2 2:05 | Offside on Marshall, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% JMU +0.6 pts |
| Q3 11:29 | Delay of Game on James Madison, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% MRSH +0.5 pts |
When it happened
Marshall’s chance of winning
Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q1 14:15 | Marshall converted 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 33% expected | +3% MRSH | MRSH: Punt |
| 2 | Q2 12:15 | James Madison converted 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 38% expected | +3% JMU | JMU: Touchdown |
| 3 | Q3 1:04 | Marshall converted 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 38% expectedMarshall’s two-point try was good3rd & 4th downs · 46% expected | +4% MRSH | MRSH: Field goal |
| 4 | Q4 10:49 | Marshall was stopped on 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 33% expected | +3% JMU | MRSH: Field goal |
| 5 | Q4 8:52 | James Madison was stopped on 3rd & 113rd & 4th downs · 29% expected | +3% MRSH | JMU: Punt |
| 6 | Q4 6:54 | Marshall was stopped on 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 26% expected | +3% JMU | MRSH: Punt |
| 7 | Q4 3:49 | Marshall was stopped on 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 53% expected | +6% JMU | MRSH: Turnover on downs |
| 8 | Q4 3:14 | Marshall was stopped on 4th & 23rd & 4th downs · 61% expected | +6% JMU | MRSH: Turnover on downs |
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
James Madison 99% · Marshall 1%
- Final margin
- James Madison by 12
- Luck in points
- 2.5 for Marshall
- Luck-adjusted margin
- James Madison by 14.5
- Replay with same day's form
- James Madison 73% · Marshall 27% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.
Methodology and validation · All Week 11 2025 games · 
James Madison · 
Marshall
More from Week 11 2025
- Texas State at Louisiana UL 42–39 · replay 14% for the winner
- Southern Miss at Arkansas State USM 27–21 · replay 38% for the winner
- Georgia Southern at App State GASO 25–23 · replay 82% for the winner
- Georgia State at Coastal Carolina CCU 40–27 · replay 92% for the winner
- Sam Houston at Oregon State SHSU 21–17 · replay 2% for the winner
- Air Force at San José State AF 26–16 · replay 5% for the winner
- Iowa State at TCU ISU 20–17 · replay 22% for the winner
- Wake Forest at Virginia WAKE 16–9 · replay 22% for the winner
- Washington at Wisconsin WIS 13–10 · replay 23% for the winner
- Louisiana Tech at Delaware DEL 25–24 · replay 25% for the winner
- Bowling Green at Eastern Michigan EMU 27–21 · replay 26% for the winner
- Stanford at North Carolina UNC 20–15 · replay 34% for the winner