Week 13 2025 · November 22, 2025
Illinois at Wisconsin, Week 13 2025: who deserved to win?
Wisconsin beat Illinois 27–10, and the replays lean its way: with the same day's form, it wins 7 of 10.
An off day for Illinois: its offense played far below its usual level. In a fresh game against Wisconsin it would win 66% of the time; with this day’s form, 33%. The numbers
Before kickoff Illinois was a 71% favorite. The biggest swing (Q4, 8:20 left): Wisconsin converted 3rd & 14, worth 11 points of win probability to Wisconsin.
Final
 Illinois Fighting Illini | 10 |
|---|---|
 Wisconsin Badgers | 27 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +33 Wisconsin lucky · −33 Illinois
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Illinois wins 3, Wisconsin wins 7.
- 1 ILL 27 WIS 10
- 2 ILL 23 WIS 14
- 3 ILL 20 WIS 17
- 4 ILL 12 WIS 14
- 5 ILL 16 WIS 21
- 6 ILL 10 WIS 18
- 7 ILL 14 WIS 26
- 8 ILL 17 WIS 33
- 9 ILL 10 WIS 30
- 10 ILL 0 WIS 28
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
An off day for Illinois
Its offense played far below its usual level. In a fresh game against Wisconsin it would win 66% of the time; with this day’s form, 33%.
Same teams, fresh game
Replay with same day's form
33 points apart for Illinois: the gap is how differently this game went from what the two teams usually are.
| Unit | This game | Usual level | Better or worse than usual |
|---|---|---|---|
| Illinois offenseEPA per play gained | −0.07 | +0.12 | worse by 0.19 |
| Illinois defenseEPA per play allowed | +0.07 | +0.13 | better by 0.07 |
| Wisconsin offenseEPA per play gained | +0.07 | −0.07 | better by 0.14 |
| Wisconsin defenseEPA per play allowed | −0.07 | −0.01 | better by 0.05 |
EPA (expected points added) per play on competitive snaps, turnovers left out because they are valued as luck. Usual level: the team’s earlier games this season plus half of last season, pulled toward the league average. One team’s defense and the other team’s offense are the same snaps, so one game can’t fully say whose day it was; it shows how far this one was from both teams’ norms.
How 4,000 replays ended
Illinois wins 33% of them, Wisconsin 67%, counting the 5% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Wisconsin by 17.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Illinois by 17+ | 5.7% |
| Illinois by 9–16 | 10.0% |
| Illinois by 1–8 | 15.6% |
| Level after regulation | 4.5% |
| Wisconsin by 1–8 | 20.7% |
| Wisconsin by 9–16 | 20.1% |
| Wisconsin by 17+ | 23.5% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
The kicks
How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance), and what happened.
- D. Olano, 37 yds missed · 81% expected
- N. Vakos, 47 yds made · 57% expected
- D. Olano, 24 yds made · 94% expected
- N. Vakos, 32 yds made · 83% expected
Penalties: Illinois 3 for 40 yards, Wisconsin 4 for 35 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 14:26 | Offside on Wisconsin, 5 yards · pre-snap | +2% ILL +1.3 pts |
| Q2 11:57 | Pass Interference on Illinois, 15 yards | +4% WIS +1.6 pts |
| Q2 1:34 | Holding on Illinois, 10 yards, wiping out the play | +3% WIS +1.6 pts |
| Q4 13:00 | Illegal Kick on Wisconsin, 10 yards | 0% WIS 0.0 pts |
| Q4 9:28 | False Start on Wisconsin, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% ILL +0.3 pts |
| Q4 4:23 | Unsportsmanlike Conduct on Wisconsin, 15 yards | 0% ILL +0.8 pts |
| Q4 3:43 | Unsportsmanlike Conduct on Illinois, 15 yards | 0% WIS +1.2 pts |
When it happened
Wisconsin’s chance of winning
As low as 23% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q1 9:26 | Wisconsin converted 3rd & 113rd & 4th downs · 26% expected | +6% WIS | WIS: Touchdown |
| 2 | Q2 10:49 | D. Olano missed a 37-yard field goalKicks · 81% expected for him | +8% WIS | ILL: Touchdown |
| 3 | Q3 11:45 | Illinois converted 3rd & 93rd & 4th downs · 31% expected | +7% ILL | ILL: Punt |
| 4 | Q3 1:26 | Illinois was stopped on 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 32% expected | +4% WIS | ILL: Field goal |
| 5 | Q4 12:20 | Illinois fumbled and recovered itFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 | +7% ILL | ILL: Turnover on downs |
| 6 | Q4 10:53 | Illinois was stopped on 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 44% expected | +6% WIS | ILL: Turnover on downs |
| 7 | Q4 10:12 | Illinois was stopped on 4th & 93rd & 4th downs · 30% expected | +5% WIS | ILL: Turnover on downs |
| 8 | Q4 8:20 | Wisconsin converted 3rd & 143rd & 4th downs · 22% expected | +11% WIS | WIS: Touchdown |
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Illinois 17% · Wisconsin 83%
- Final margin
- Wisconsin by 17
- Luck in points
- 9.9 for Wisconsin
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Wisconsin by 7.1
- Replay with same day's form
- Illinois 33% · Wisconsin 67% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.
Methodology and validation · All Week 13 2025 games · 
Illinois · 
Wisconsin
More from Week 13 2025
- Michigan State at Iowa IOWA 20–17 · replay 62% for the winner
- Minnesota vs Northwestern NU 38–35 · replay 66% for the winner
- Michigan at Maryland MICH 45–20 · replay 93% for the winner
- USC at Oregon ORE 42–27 · replay 94% for the winner
- Washington at UCLA WASH 48–14 · replay 100% for the winner
- Rutgers at Ohio State OSU 42–9 · replay 100% for the winner
- Nebraska at Penn State PSU 37–10 · replay 100% for the winner
- Marshall at App State APP 26–24 · replay 13% for the winner
- Duke at North Carolina DUKE 32–25 · replay 13% for the winner
- Louisiana at Arkansas State UL 34–30 · replay 16% for the winner
- Florida State at NC State NCSU 21–11 · replay 18% for the winner
- Missouri State at Kennesaw State KENN 41–34 · replay 23% for the winner