USC at Oregon, Week 13 2025: who deserved to win?

Final

USC Trojans	27
Oregon Ducks	42

November 22, 2025 · Autzen Stadium · Closing line: Oregon −10.5

Replay with same day's form

Luck index +6 Oregon about even · −6 USC

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. USC wins 1, Oregon wins 9.

1 USC 20 ORE 13
2 USC 17 ORE 21
3 USC 23 ORE 31
4 USC 28 ORE 41
5 USC 14 ORE 30
6 USC 17 ORE 35
7 USC 7 ORE 30
8 USC 13 ORE 40
9 USC 7 ORE 38
10 USC 10 ORE 49

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

Before kickoff

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

Same teams, fresh game

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

USC wins 6% of them, Oregon 94%, counting the 1% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Oregon by 15.

Actual: Oregon by 15 494235282114707142128354249 ← USC win by Oregon win by →

Show as a table

Final margin in the replays	Share of replays
USC by 17+	0.6%
USC by 9–16	1.7%
USC by 1–8	3.9%
Level after regulation	1.0%
Oregon by 1–8	16.1%
Oregon by 9–16	18.0%
Oregon by 17+	58.8%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

3rd & 4th downs +5% USC

Pre-snap flags +3% USC

All luck +8% USC

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +4.4 points to USC: the final margin was Oregon by 15, without the luck Oregon by 19.4. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

Penalties: USC 7 for 90 yards, Oregon 7 for 80 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued

When	Flag	Win probability for
Q1 12:42	Illegal Substitution on Oregon, 5 yards · pre-snap	+3% USC +1.5 pts
Q1 6:03	Kick Catch Interference on USC, 15 yards	+1% ORE +0.9 pts
Q1 0:52	Unsportsmanlike Conduct on USC, 15 yards	+2% ORE +1.6 pts
Q1 0:12	Pass Interference on Oregon, 15 yards	+3% USC +1.6 pts
Q2 13:42	Illegal Snap on Oregon, 5 yards · pre-snap	+1% USC +0.6 pts
Q2 7:53	Unsportsmanlike Conduct on USC, 15 yards	0% ORE +1.6 pts
Q3 14:26	Offside on USC, 5 yards · pre-snap	0% ORE +1.6 pts
Q3 13:14	Holding on Oregon, 10 yards	0% USC +0.6 pts
Q3 10:24	Holding on USC, 10 yards	0% ORE +0.6 pts
Q3 9:07	Pass Interference on Oregon, 15 yards	0% USC +0.1 pts
Q4 13:30	Pass Interference on Oregon, 15 yards	+1% USC +1.1 pts
Q4 13:24	Pass Interference on Oregon, 15 yards	+1% USC +0.9 pts
Q4 5:36	Pass Interference on USC, 15 yards	0% ORE +0.9 pts
Q4 2:13	Personal Foul on USC, 15 yards	0% ORE +0.7 pts

When it happened

Oregon’s chance of winning

Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

Oregon 50% USC Q1Q2Q3Q4 1457

Our in-game win probability: the score, the value of the possession and the time left, starting from the betting line. Overtime has no clock and is drawn at a fixed width. Shaded above the middle while Oregon was ahead in it, below while USC was.

#	When	What happened	Win probability for	Next drive
1	Q1 13:59	USC converted 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 39% expected	+4% USC	USC: Touchdown
2	Q1 12:42	Illegal Substitution on Oregon, 5 yardsPre-snap flags	+3% USC	USC: Touchdown
3	Q1 0:52	Unsportsmanlike Conduct on USC, 15 yardsJudgment calls	+2% ORE	ORE: Punt
4	Q1 0:12	Pass Interference on Oregon, 15 yardsJudgment calls	+3% USC	USC: Touchdown
5	Q2 11:56	USC converted 3rd & 113rd & 4th downs · 27% expected	+6% USC	USC: Turnover
6	Q2 10:14	USC was stopped on 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 40% expected	+3% ORE	USC: Turnover
7	Q2 9:58	Return touchdown by OregonSpecial teams	+11% ORE	ORE: Turnover on downs
8	Q2 9:21	USC converted 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 44% expected	+3% USC	USC: Turnover

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

USC 0% · Oregon 100%

Final margin: Oregon by 15
Luck in points: 4.4 for USC
Luck-adjusted margin: Oregon by 19.4
Replay with same day's form: USC 6% · Oregon 94% unchanged: why

How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

3rd & 4th downs 50%Fumble bounces 100%Kicks 100%Judgment calls 0%Pre-snap flags 100%Special teams 0%

What counts Referee calls Momentum after a lucky break none

None by default: our tests measured no carryover after a lucky break. Slide it up to count a break for more than its own swing. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

USC converted 3rd & 6Q1 13:59
Illegal Substitution on Oregon, 5 yardsQ1 12:42
Unsportsmanlike Conduct on USC, 15 yardsQ1 0:52
Pass Interference on Oregon, 15 yardsQ1 0:12
USC converted 3rd & 11Q2 11:56
USC was stopped on 3rd & 6Q2 10:14
Return touchdown by OregonQ2 9:58
USC converted 3rd & 5Q2 9:21

About these numbers

Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here. Part of this game's play-by-play is missing from the source: the plays on file account for 62 of the 69 points, so the replay rests on the plays there are.

Methodology and validation · All Week 13 2025 games · USC · Oregon

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