Week 13 2025 · November 22, 2025
Minnesota vs Northwestern, Week 13 2025: who deserved to win?
Northwestern beat Minnesota 38–35, and the replays lean its way: with the same day's form, it wins 7 of 10.
Before kickoff Northwestern was a 60% favorite. The biggest swing (Q4, 3:04 left): Personal Foul on Northwestern, 15 yards, worth 13 points of win probability to Minnesota.
Final
 Minnesota Golden Gophers | 35 |
|---|---|
 Northwestern Wildcats | 38 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +34 Northwestern lucky · −34 Minnesota
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Minnesota wins 3, Northwestern wins 7.
- 1 MINN 31 NU 13
- 2 MINN 31 NU 21
- 3 MINN 16 NU 13
- 4 MINN 24 NU 26
- 5 MINN 17 NU 21
- 6 MINN 10 NU 17
- 7 MINN 16 NU 28
- 8 MINN 23 NU 37
- 9 MINN 7 NU 24
- 10 MINN 14 NU 38
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
How 4,000 replays ended
Minnesota wins 34% of them, Northwestern 66%, counting the 7% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Northwestern by 3.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Minnesota by 17+ | 6.8% |
| Minnesota by 9–16 | 9.9% |
| Minnesota by 1–8 | 17.6% |
| Level after regulation | 7.0% |
| Northwestern by 1–8 | 21.2% |
| Northwestern by 9–16 | 17.0% |
| Northwestern by 17+ | 20.5% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
The kicks
How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance), and what happened.
- J. Olsen, 34 yds made · 82% expected
- J. Olsen, 35 yds made · 81% expected
- B. Denaburg, 48 yds missed · 57% expected
- J. Olsen, 33 yds made · 83% expected
- B. Denaburg, 40 yds missed · 71% expected
Penalties: Minnesota 5 for 31 yards, Northwestern 10 for 87 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 13:42 | False Start on Northwestern, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% MINN +0.5 pts |
| Q1 10:37 | False Start on Minnesota, 5 yards · pre-snap | +4% NU +2.4 pts |
| Q1 9:32 | Holding on Northwestern, 10 yards, wiping out the play | +3% MINN +1.8 pts |
| Q1 7:47 | False Start on Northwestern, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% MINN +0.8 pts |
| Q1 5:25 | Intentional Grounding on Northwestern, 11 yards | +1% MINN +0.7 pts |
| Q1 4:27 | Offside on Minnesota, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% NU +0.3 pts |
| Q1 4:03 | Pass Interference on Minnesota, 11 yards | +2% NU +1.1 pts |
| Q1 1:46 | Pass Interference on Northwestern, 15 yards | +2% MINN +1.5 pts |
| Q1 0:56 | Delay of Game on Northwestern, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% MINN +0.6 pts |
| Q2 9:23 | Holding on Northwestern, 10 yards | +2% MINN +1.0 pts |
| Q2 5:26 | False Start on Minnesota, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% NU +0.3 pts |
| Q2 3:19 | Holding on Northwestern, 6 yards | +5% MINN +2.1 pts |
| Q4 3:04 | Personal Foul on Northwestern, 15 yards | +13% MINN +1.8 pts |
| Q4 2:41 | Offside on Minnesota, 5 yards · pre-snap | +3% NU +0.3 pts |
| Q4 1:52 | False Start on Northwestern, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% MINN +0.3 pts |
When it happened
Northwestern’s chance of winning
As low as 13% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q2 5:05 | Minnesota converted 3rd & 153rd & 4th downs · 25% expected | +5% MINN | MINN: Touchdown |
| 2 | Q2 3:19 | Holding on Northwestern, 6 yardsJudgment calls | +5% MINN | MINN: Touchdown |
| 3 | Q3 12:52 | Northwestern fumbled and Minnesota recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 | +5% MINN | NU: Touchdown |
| 4 | Q3 7:01 | Northwestern converted 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 44% expectedNorthwestern’s two-point try was good3rd & 4th downs · 46% expected | +8% NU | NU: Touchdown |
| 5 | Q3 4:42 | B. Denaburg missed a 48-yard field goalKicks · 57% expected for him, 2 of 4 from 45+ before | +6% NU | MINN: Punt |
| 6 | Q4 14:38 | Northwestern fumbled and recovered itFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 | +6% NU | NU: Touchdown |
| 7 | Q4 3:04 | Personal Foul on Northwestern, 15 yardsJudgment calls | +13% MINN | MINN: End of game |
| 8 | Q4 1:52 | Northwestern converted 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 32% expectedFalse Start on Northwestern, 5 yardsPre-snap flags | +10% NU | NU: Field goal |
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Minnesota 96% · Northwestern 4%
- Final margin
- Northwestern by 3
- Luck in points
- 15.1 for Northwestern
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Minnesota by 12.1
- Replay with same day's form
- Minnesota 34% · Northwestern 66% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.
Methodology and validation · All Week 13 2025 games · 
Minnesota · 
Northwestern
More from Week 13 2025
- Michigan State at Iowa IOWA 20–17 · replay 62% for the winner
- Illinois at Wisconsin WIS 27–10 · replay 67% for the winner
- Michigan at Maryland MICH 45–20 · replay 93% for the winner
- USC at Oregon ORE 42–27 · replay 94% for the winner
- Washington at UCLA WASH 48–14 · replay 100% for the winner
- Rutgers at Ohio State OSU 42–9 · replay 100% for the winner
- Nebraska at Penn State PSU 37–10 · replay 100% for the winner
- Marshall at App State APP 26–24 · replay 13% for the winner
- Duke at North Carolina DUKE 32–25 · replay 13% for the winner
- Louisiana at Arkansas State UL 34–30 · replay 16% for the winner
- Florida State at NC State NCSU 21–11 · replay 18% for the winner
- Missouri State at Kennesaw State KENN 41–34 · replay 23% for the winner