luckadjusted
CFB Week 4 · 2026

Week 13 2025 · November 22, 2025

Washington at UCLA, Week 13 2025: who deserved to win?

Washington beat UCLA 48–14, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams actually played, Washington wins 10 of 10.

Before kickoff Washington was a 75% favorite.

Final

Washington Huskies 48
UCLA Bruins 14

November 22, 2025 · Rose Bowl · Closing line: Washington −10.5

Luck index 0 Washington about even · 0 UCLA

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Washington wins 10, UCLA wins 0.

  1. 1 WASH 59 UCLA 0
  2. 2 WASH 52 UCLA 0
  3. 3 WASH 49 UCLA 0
  4. 4 WASH 45 UCLA 0
  5. 5 WASH 45 UCLA 3
  6. 6 WASH 38 UCLA 0
  7. 7 WASH 36 UCLA 0
  8. 8 WASH 40 UCLA 7
  9. 9 WASH 28 UCLA 0
  10. 10 WASH 23 UCLA 3

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Washington wins 100% of them, UCLA 0%. The line is what actually happened: Washington by 34.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Washington by 17+95.9%
Washington by 9–163.4%
Washington by 1–80.6%
Level after regulation0.0%
UCLA by 1–80.1%
UCLA by 9–160.0%
UCLA by 17+0.0%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +7.3 points to Washington: the final margin was Washington by 34, without the luck Washington by 26.7. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance), and what happened.

  • G. Gross, 36 yds made · 78% expected
  • G. Gross, 22 yds made · 92% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Washington 5 for 50 yards, UCLA 6 for 65 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 2:21 Delay of Game on Washington, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% UCLA +0.6 pts
Q2 8:50 Pass Interference on UCLA, 15 yards +1% WASH +0.7 pts
Q2 2:17 Illegal Formation on UCLA, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% WASH +0.2 pts
Q2 1:02 Holding on Washington, 10 yards, wiping out the play +1% UCLA +2.9 pts
Q2 0:45 Holding on UCLA, 10 yards 0% WASH +0.7 pts
Q3 7:40 Holding on Washington, 10 yards, wiping out the play 0% UCLA +3.2 pts
Q3 5:59 Holding on Washington, 10 yards, wiping out the play 0% UCLA +2.6 pts
Q3 5:07 Unsportsmanlike Conduct on Washington, 15 yards 0% UCLA +1.6 pts
Q4 14:36 Pass Interference on UCLA, 15 yards 0% WASH +2.0 pts
Q4 4:45 Face Mask on UCLA, 15 yards +1% WASH +1.6 pts
Q4 0:41 False Start on UCLA, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% WASH +0.3 pts

When it happened

UCLA’s chance of winning

Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

Our in-game win probability: the score, the value of the possession and the time left, starting from the betting line. Overtime has no clock and is drawn at a fixed width. Shaded above the middle while UCLA was ahead in it, below while Washington was.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 12:21 Washington was stopped on 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 49% expected +2% UCLA WASH: Punt
2 Q1 10:45 UCLA converted 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 38% expected +4% UCLA UCLA: Turnover on downs
3 Q1 7:23 UCLA was stopped on 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 47% expected +2% WASH UCLA: Turnover on downs
4 Q1 3:03 Washington was stopped on 3rd & 23rd & 4th downs · 70% expected +3% UCLA WASH: Punt
5 Q1 1:59 UCLA fumbled and Washington recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +4% WASH UCLA: Punt
6 Q1 1:13 Washington was stopped on 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 38% expected +2% UCLA WASH: Field goal
7 Q2 14:55 UCLA was stopped on 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 47% expected +2% WASH UCLA: Punt
8 Q2 8:50 UCLA fumbled and Washington recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50Pass Interference on UCLA, 15 yardsJudgment calls +3% WASH UCLA: Punt

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Washington 100% · UCLA 0%

Final margin
Washington by 34
Luck in points
7.3 for Washington
Luck-adjusted margin
Washington by 26.7
Replay with same day's form
Washington 100% · UCLA 0% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

None by default: our tests measured no carryover after a lucky break. Slide it up to count a break for more than its own swing. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.

Methodology and validation · All Week 13 2025 games · Washington · UCLA

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