luckadjusted
CFB Week 4 · 2026

Week 13 2025 · November 22, 2025

Rutgers at Ohio State, Week 13 2025: who deserved to win?

Ohio State beat Rutgers 42–9, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams actually played, Ohio State wins 10 of 10.

Before kickoff Ohio State was a 97% favorite.

Final

Rutgers Scarlet Knights 9
Ohio State Buckeyes 42

November 22, 2025 · Ohio Stadium · Closing line: Ohio State −28.5

Luck index 0 Ohio State about even · 0 Rutgers

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Rutgers wins 0, Ohio State wins 10.

  1. 1 RUTG 13 OSU 23
  2. 2 RUTG 10 OSU 27
  3. 3 RUTG 10 OSU 33
  4. 4 RUTG 10 OSU 35
  5. 5 RUTG 3 OSU 31
  6. 6 RUTG 0 OSU 32
  7. 7 RUTG 0 OSU 35
  8. 8 RUTG 3 OSU 42
  9. 9 RUTG 0 OSU 44
  10. 10 RUTG 0 OSU 49

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Rutgers wins 0% of them, Ohio State 100%. The line is what actually happened: Ohio State by 33.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Rutgers by 17+0.0%
Rutgers by 9–160.0%
Rutgers by 1–80.1%
Level after regulation0.1%
Ohio State by 1–80.9%
Ohio State by 9–163.4%
Ohio State by 17+95.5%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +7.9 points to Ohio State: the final margin was Ohio State by 33, without the luck Ohio State by 25.1. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

Penalties: Rutgers 4 for 37 yards, Ohio State 4 for 45 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 5:52 Holding on Rutgers, 10 yards 0% OSU +0.8 pts
Q1 4:01 Illegal Touching on Rutgers, 0 yards 0% OSU +1.4 pts
Q2 14:09 Pass Interference on Ohio State, 5 yards +1% RUTG +3.2 pts
Q2 3:20 Roughing the Passer on Rutgers, 12 yards 0% OSU +2.6 pts
Q2 1:33 Personal Foul on Ohio State, 15 yards, wiping out the play +1% RUTG +4.2 pts
Q3 7:40 Holding on Ohio State, 10 yards 0% RUTG +1.8 pts
Q3 6:06 Pass Interference on Rutgers, 15 yards 0% OSU +1.6 pts
Q4 11:34 Pass Interference on Ohio State, 15 yards 0% RUTG +2.2 pts

When it happened

Ohio State’s chance of winning

Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

Our in-game win probability: the score, the value of the possession and the time left, starting from the betting line. Overtime has no clock and is drawn at a fixed width. Shaded above the middle while Ohio State was ahead in it, below while Rutgers was.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 7:43 Rutgers was stopped on 3rd & 13rd & 4th downs · 74% expectedOhio State fumbled and Rutgers recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +0% RUTG RUTG: Turnover on downs
2 Q1 5:47 Rutgers was stopped on 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 73% expected +1% OSU RUTG: Field goal
3 Q1 4:01 Rutgers converted 3rd & 13rd & 4th downs · 73% expectedRutgers converted 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 24% expectedIllegal Touching on Rutgers, 0 yardsJudgment calls +1% RUTG RUTG: Field goal
4 Q2 14:09 Rutgers converted 3rd & 13rd & 4th downs · 73% expectedRutgers was stopped on 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 34% expectedPass Interference on Ohio State, 5 yardsJudgment calls +1% RUTG RUTG: Field goal
5 Q2 11:50 Ohio State was stopped on 3rd & 133rd & 4th downs · 28% expectedJ. Patel made a 44-yard field goalKicks · 65% expected for him +0% OSU OSU: Punt
6 Q2 10:50 Rutgers was stopped on 3rd & 13rd & 4th downs · 73% expected +1% OSU RUTG: Punt
7 Q2 1:33 Rutgers was stopped on 3rd & 23rd & 4th downs · 59% expectedPersonal Foul on Ohio State, 15 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls +1% RUTG RUTG: Punt
8 Q4 6:43 Rutgers’s two-point try failed3rd & 4th downs · 46% expected +0% OSU RUTG: Turnover on downs

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Rutgers 0% · Ohio State 100%

Final margin
Ohio State by 33
Luck in points
7.9 for Ohio State
Luck-adjusted margin
Ohio State by 25.1
Replay with same day's form
Rutgers 0% · Ohio State 100% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

None by default: our tests measured no carryover after a lucky break. Slide it up to count a break for more than its own swing. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.

Methodology and validation · All Week 13 2025 games · Rutgers · Ohio State

More from Week 13 2025

Every week 13 game, 2025