Week 13 2025 · November 22, 2025
Part of this game's play-by-play is missing from the source: the plays on file account for 40 of the 47 points, so the replay rests on the plays there are.
Nebraska at Penn State, Week 13 2025: who deserved to win?
Penn State beat Nebraska 37–10, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams actually played, Penn State wins 10 of 10.
Before kickoff Penn State was a 68% favorite.
Final
 Nebraska Cornhuskers | 10 |
|---|---|
 Penn State Nittany Lions | 37 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index 0 Penn State about even · 0 Nebraska
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Nebraska wins 0, Penn State wins 10.
- 1 NEB 13 PSU 31
- 2 NEB 10 PSU 38
- 3 NEB 21 PSU 52
- 4 NEB 7 PSU 42
- 5 NEB 7 PSU 45
- 6 NEB 3 PSU 45
- 7 NEB 7 PSU 52
- 8 NEB 10 PSU 59
- 9 NEB 0 PSU 52
- 10 NEB 0 PSU 56
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
How 4,000 replays ended
Nebraska wins 0% of them, Penn State 100%. The line is what actually happened: Penn State by 27.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Nebraska by 17+ | 0.0% |
| Nebraska by 9–16 | 0.0% |
| Nebraska by 1–8 | 0.0% |
| Level after regulation | 0.1% |
| Penn State by 1–8 | 0.6% |
| Penn State by 9–16 | 1.3% |
| Penn State by 17+ | 98.0% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
The kicks
How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance), and what happened.
- R. Barker, 26 yds made · 93% expected
- K. Cunanan, 31 yds made · 86% expected
- Extra point missed · 98% expected
Penalties: Nebraska 6 for 58 yards, Penn State 3 for 35 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 15:00 | Offside on Penn State, 5 yards · pre-snap | +3% NEB +1.7 pts |
| Q1 7:22 | Delay of Game on Nebraska, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% PSU +0.7 pts |
| Q2 12:11 | Face Mask on Penn State, 15 yards | +3% NEB +1.6 pts |
| Q2 8:31 | Pass Interference on Nebraska, 15 yards | +2% PSU +1.0 pts |
| Q2 2:25 | Personal Foul on Nebraska, 14 yards | +1% PSU +1.6 pts |
| Q3 10:07 | False Start on Nebraska, 4 yards · pre-snap | 0% PSU +0.9 pts |
| Q3 10:07 | False Start on Nebraska, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% NEB +0.6 pts |
| Q3 0:55 | Face Mask on Penn State, 15 yards | 0% NEB +0.9 pts |
| Q4 15:00 | Pass Interference on Nebraska, 15 yards | 0% PSU +0.3 pts |
When it happened
Penn State’s chance of winning
Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q1 15:00 | Nebraska converted 3rd & 23rd & 4th downs · 62% expectedNebraska was stopped on 3rd & 23rd & 4th downs · 55% expectedOffside on Penn State, 5 yardsPre-snap flags | +3% PSU | NEB: Turnover on downs |
| 2 | Q1 11:29 | Nebraska was stopped on 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 69% expectedPenn State converted 3rd & 23rd & 4th downs · 61% expected | +7% PSU | NEB: End of half |
| 3 | Q1 7:22 | Nebraska was stopped on 3rd & 153rd & 4th downs · 20% expectedNebraska converted 3rd & 113rd & 4th downs · 25% expectedDelay of Game on Nebraska, 5 yardsPre-snap flags | +1% NEB | NEB: Punt |
| 4 | Q2 15:00 | Penn State was stopped on 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 37% expected | +1% NEB | PSU: Field goal |
| 5 | Q2 8:31 | Penn State converted 3rd & 23rd & 4th downs · 61% expectedK. Cunanan made a 31-yard field goalKicks · 86% expected for himPass Interference on Nebraska, 15 yardsJudgment calls | +3% PSU | PSU: Touchdown |
| 6 | Q2 4:09 | Nebraska was stopped on 3rd & 173rd & 4th downs · 18% expected | +2% NEB | NEB: Punt |
| 7 | Q2 2:25 | Personal Foul on Nebraska, 14 yardsJudgment calls | +1% PSU | PSU: Touchdown |
| 8 | Q2 0:06 | Nebraska was stopped on 4th & 43rd & 4th downs · 45% expectedNebraska fumbled and recovered itFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 | +1% NEB | NEB: Turnover on downs |
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Nebraska 0% · Penn State 100%
- Final margin
- Penn State by 27
- Luck in points
- 1.7 for Penn State
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Penn State by 25.3
- Replay with same day's form
- Nebraska 0% · Penn State 100% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here. Part of this game's play-by-play is missing from the source: the plays on file account for 40 of the 47 points, so the replay rests on the plays there are.
Methodology and validation · All Week 13 2025 games · 
Nebraska · 
Penn State
More from Week 13 2025
- Michigan State at Iowa IOWA 20–17 · replay 62% for the winner
- Minnesota vs Northwestern NU 38–35 · replay 66% for the winner
- Illinois at Wisconsin WIS 27–10 · replay 67% for the winner
- Michigan at Maryland MICH 45–20 · replay 93% for the winner
- USC at Oregon ORE 42–27 · replay 94% for the winner
- Washington at UCLA WASH 48–14 · replay 100% for the winner
- Rutgers at Ohio State OSU 42–9 · replay 100% for the winner
- Marshall at App State APP 26–24 · replay 13% for the winner
- Duke at North Carolina DUKE 32–25 · replay 13% for the winner
- Louisiana at Arkansas State UL 34–30 · replay 16% for the winner
- Florida State at NC State NCSU 21–11 · replay 18% for the winner
- Missouri State at Kennesaw State KENN 41–34 · replay 23% for the winner