Week 11 2025 · November 7, 2025
Houston at UCF, Week 11 2025: who deserved to win?
Houston beat UCF 30–27, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams actually played, Houston wins 9 of 10. UCF had the bounces: kicks alone were worth 14 points of win probability to UCF.
An off day for UCF: its offense played far below its usual level. In a fresh game against Houston it would win 48% of the time; with this day’s form, 8%. The numbers
Before kickoff UCF was a 54% favorite. The biggest swing (Q2, 6:36 left): Return touchdown by Houston, worth 22 points of win probability to Houston.
Final
 Houston Cougars | 30 |
|---|---|
 UCF Knights | 27 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +8 Houston about even · −8 UCF
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Houston wins 9, UCF wins 1.
- 1 HOU 41 UCF 0
- 2 HOU 42 UCF 10
- 3 HOU 38 UCF 10
- 4 HOU 31 UCF 7
- 5 HOU 20 UCF 0
- 6 HOU 30 UCF 13
- 7 HOU 27 UCF 13
- 8 HOU 20 UCF 10
- 9 HOU 19 UCF 16
- 10 HOU 10 UCF 16
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
An off day for UCF
Its offense played far below its usual level. In a fresh game against Houston it would win 48% of the time; with this day’s form, 8%.
Same teams, fresh game
Replay with same day's form
40 points apart for UCF: the gap is how differently this game went from what the two teams usually are.
| Unit | This game | Usual level | Better or worse than usual |
|---|---|---|---|
| Houston offenseEPA per play gained | +0.09 | +0.04 | better by 0.05 |
| Houston defenseEPA per play allowed | −0.15 | +0.05 | better by 0.20 |
| UCF offenseEPA per play gained | −0.15 | +0.07 | worse by 0.22 |
| UCF defenseEPA per play allowed | +0.09 | +0.11 | better by 0.02 |
EPA (expected points added) per play on competitive snaps, turnovers left out because they are valued as luck. Usual level: the team’s earlier games this season plus half of last season, pulled toward the league average. One team’s defense and the other team’s offense are the same snaps, so one game can’t fully say whose day it was; it shows how far this one was from both teams’ norms.
How 4,000 replays ended
Houston wins 92% of them, UCF 8%, counting the 2% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Houston by 3.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Houston by 17+ | 63.1% |
| Houston by 9–16 | 16.7% |
| Houston by 1–8 | 12.0% |
| Level after regulation | 2.0% |
| UCF by 1–8 | 4.3% |
| UCF by 9–16 | 1.1% |
| UCF by 17+ | 0.8% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
The kicks
How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance), and what happened.
- N. Ruelas, 37 yds made · 81% expected
- E. Sanchez, 40 yds made · 75% expected
- N. Ruelas, 54 yds made · 50% expected
- E. Sanchez, 30 yds made · 89% expected
- E. Sanchez, 22 yds made · 96% expected
Penalties: Houston 3 for 25 yards, UCF 9 for 75 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 13:45 | Offside on UCF, 5 yards · pre-snap | +2% HOU +1.0 pts |
| Q1 11:30 | False Start on UCF, 5 yards · pre-snap | +2% HOU +1.0 pts |
| Q1 10:49 | False Start on Houston, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% UCF +0.7 pts |
| Q1 5:22 | Holding on UCF, 10 yards | +3% HOU +1.2 pts |
| Q1 3:39 | Face Mask on UCF, 15 yards | +4% HOU +1.6 pts |
| Q2 14:16 | Running Into the Kicker on Houston, 5 yards | +2% UCF +0.9 pts |
| Q3 14:56 | Illegal Shift on UCF, 5 yards · pre-snap | +2% UCF +0.4 pts |
| Q3 11:37 | Illegal Substitution on UCF, 5 yards · pre-snap | +2% HOU +0.8 pts |
| Q4 14:18 | Face Mask on UCF, 15 yards | +7% HOU +1.6 pts |
| Q4 2:31 | Unsportsmanlike Conduct on Houston, 15 yards | +8% UCF +0.9 pts |
| Q4 2:23 | Delay of Game on UCF, 5 yards · pre-snap | +9% HOU +0.5 pts |
| Q4 1:06 | Holding on UCF, 10 yards | +8% HOU +0.9 pts |
When it happened
UCF’s chance of winning
As low as 0% and as high as 79%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q2 6:36 | Return touchdown by HoustonSpecial teams | +22% HOU | HOU: Field goal |
| 2 | Q2 1:36 | Return touchdown by UCFSpecial teams | +19% UCF | UCF: Punt |
| 3 | Q3 1:06 | N. Ruelas made a 54-yard field goalKicks · 50% expected for him, 4 of 5 from 45+ before | +8% UCF | UCF: Punt |
| 4 | Q4 2:31 | E. Sanchez made a 22-yard field goalKicks · 96% expected for himUnsportsmanlike Conduct on Houston, 15 yardsJudgment calls | +12% UCF | HOU: End of game |
| 5 | Q4 2:23 | Delay of Game on UCF, 5 yardsPre-snap flags | +9% HOU | HOU: End of game |
| 6 | Q4 1:06 | Holding on UCF, 10 yardsJudgment calls | +8% HOU | HOU: End of game |
| 7 | Q4 0:45 | UCF converted 3rd & 113rd & 4th downs · 20% expected | +12% UCF | UCF: Turnover |
| 8 | Q4 0:33 | UCF fumbled and recovered itFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 | +17% UCF | UCF: Turnover |
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Houston 61% · UCF 39%
- Final margin
- Houston by 3
- Luck in points
- 1.4 for Houston
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Houston by 1.6
- Replay with same day's form
- Houston 92% · UCF 8% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.
Methodology and validation · All Week 11 2025 games · 
Houston · 
UCF
More from Week 11 2025
- Iowa State at TCU ISU 20–17 · replay 22% for the winner
- Kansas at Arizona ARIZ 24–20 · replay 74% for the winner
- Colorado at West Virginia WVU 29–22 · replay 90% for the winner
- BYU at Texas Tech TTU 29–7 · replay 95% for the winner
- Sam Houston at Oregon State SHSU 21–17 · replay 2% for the winner
- Air Force at San José State AF 26–16 · replay 5% for the winner
- Texas State at Louisiana UL 42–39 · replay 14% for the winner
- Wake Forest at Virginia WAKE 16–9 · replay 22% for the winner
- Washington at Wisconsin WIS 13–10 · replay 23% for the winner
- Louisiana Tech at Delaware DEL 25–24 · replay 25% for the winner
- Bowling Green at Eastern Michigan EMU 27–21 · replay 26% for the winner
- Stanford at North Carolina UNC 20–15 · replay 34% for the winner