Week 11 2025 · November 8, 2025
Kansas at Arizona, Week 11 2025: who deserved to win?
Arizona beat Kansas 24–20, and the replays lean its way: with the same day's form, it wins 7 of 10. Kansas had the bounces: 3rd & 4th downs alone were worth 11 points of win probability to Kansas.
Before kickoff Arizona was a 64% favorite. The biggest swing (Q4, 10:22 left): Pass Interference on Kansas, 15 yards, worth 14 points of win probability to Arizona.
Final
 Kansas Jayhawks | 20 |
|---|---|
 Arizona Wildcats | 24 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +26 Arizona lucky · −26 Kansas
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Kansas wins 3, Arizona wins 7.
- 1 KU 27 ARIZ 10
- 2 KU 28 ARIZ 20
- 3 KU 17 ARIZ 14
- 4 KU 7 ARIZ 10
- 5 KU 10 ARIZ 16
- 6 KU 9 ARIZ 17
- 7 KU 12 ARIZ 24
- 8 KU 3 ARIZ 20
- 9 KU 21 ARIZ 42
- 10 KU 7 ARIZ 34
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
How 4,000 replays ended
Kansas wins 26% of them, Arizona 74%, counting the 4% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Arizona by 4.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Kansas by 17+ | 4.7% |
| Kansas by 9–16 | 6.6% |
| Kansas by 1–8 | 13.8% |
| Level after regulation | 3.9% |
| Arizona by 1–8 | 21.0% |
| Arizona by 9–16 | 20.6% |
| Arizona by 17+ | 29.4% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
The kicks
How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance), and what happened.
- L. Marjan, 46 yds made · 65% expected
- M. Salgado-Medina, 41 yds made · 70% expected
- L. Marjan, 50 yds made · 58% expected
- L. Marjan, 30 yds missed · 91% expected
Penalties: Kansas 5 for 55 yards, Arizona 3 for 32 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 6:37 | Face Mask on Arizona, 15 yards | +3% KU +1.9 pts |
| Q1 0:22 | Chop Block on Arizona, 12 yards | +4% KU +1.7 pts |
| Q2 12:31 | Illegal Substitution on Arizona, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% KU +0.5 pts |
| Q2 6:56 | Holding on Kansas, 10 yards | +2% ARIZ +1.0 pts |
| Q2 1:02 | Holding on Kansas, 10 yards, wiping out the play | +11% ARIZ +4.1 pts |
| Q4 15:00 | Delay of Game on Kansas, 5 yards · pre-snap | +3% ARIZ +0.8 pts |
| Q4 10:22 | Pass Interference on Kansas, 15 yards | +14% ARIZ +2.9 pts |
| Q4 0:07 | Unsportsmanlike Conduct on Kansas, 15 yards | +4% ARIZ +0.6 pts |
When it happened
Arizona’s chance of winning
As low as 10% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q2 1:02 | Holding on Kansas, 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls | +11% ARIZ | ARIZ: Touchdown |
| 2 | Q3 5:51 | L. Marjan made a 50-yard field goalKicks · 58% expected for him, 4 of 4 from 45+ before | +6% KU | KU: Punt |
| 3 | Q4 13:48 | Arizona converted 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 37% expected | +9% ARIZ | ARIZ: Punt |
| 4 | Q4 12:45 | Arizona was stopped on 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 57% expected | +8% KU | ARIZ: Punt |
| 5 | Q4 10:22 | Pass Interference on Kansas, 15 yardsJudgment calls | +14% ARIZ | ARIZ: Punt |
| 6 | Q4 9:31 | Arizona was stopped on 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 45% expected | +8% KU | ARIZ: Punt |
| 7 | Q4 5:46 | Kansas converted 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 75% expected | +9% KU | KU: Missed field goal |
| 8 | Q4 2:39 | Kansas was stopped on 3rd & 93rd & 4th downs · 28% expectedKansas fumbled and recovered itFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50L. Marjan missed a 30-yard field goalKicks · 91% expected for him | +8% KU | KU: Missed field goal |
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Kansas 23% · Arizona 77%
- Final margin
- Arizona by 4
- Luck in points
- 0.6 for Kansas
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Arizona by 4.6
- Replay with same day's form
- Kansas 26% · Arizona 74% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.
Methodology and validation · All Week 11 2025 games · 
Kansas · 
Arizona
More from Week 11 2025
- Iowa State at TCU ISU 20–17 · replay 22% for the winner
- Colorado at West Virginia WVU 29–22 · replay 90% for the winner
- Houston at UCF HOU 30–27 · replay 92% for the winner
- BYU at Texas Tech TTU 29–7 · replay 95% for the winner
- Sam Houston at Oregon State SHSU 21–17 · replay 2% for the winner
- Air Force at San José State AF 26–16 · replay 5% for the winner
- Texas State at Louisiana UL 42–39 · replay 14% for the winner
- Wake Forest at Virginia WAKE 16–9 · replay 22% for the winner
- Washington at Wisconsin WIS 13–10 · replay 23% for the winner
- Louisiana Tech at Delaware DEL 25–24 · replay 25% for the winner
- Bowling Green at Eastern Michigan EMU 27–21 · replay 26% for the winner
- Stanford at North Carolina UNC 20–15 · replay 34% for the winner