Week 11 2025 · November 8, 2025
BYU at Texas Tech, Week 11 2025: who deserved to win?
Texas Tech beat BYU 29–7, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams actually played, Texas Tech wins 9 of 10.
Before kickoff Texas Tech was an 81% favorite.
Final
 BYU Cougars | 7 |
|---|---|
 Texas Tech Red Raiders | 29 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +5 Texas Tech about even · −5 BYU
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. BYU wins 1, Texas Tech wins 9.
- 1 BYU 10 TTU 6
- 2 BYU 14 TTU 17
- 3 BYU 7 TTU 14
- 4 BYU 3 TTU 13
- 5 BYU 10 TTU 23
- 6 BYU 3 TTU 20
- 7 BYU 0 TTU 20
- 8 BYU 0 TTU 24
- 9 BYU 3 TTU 31
- 10 BYU 0 TTU 36
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
How 4,000 replays ended
BYU wins 5% of them, Texas Tech 95%, counting the 1% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Texas Tech by 22.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| BYU by 17+ | 0.3% |
| BYU by 9–16 | 0.7% |
| BYU by 1–8 | 3.5% |
| Level after regulation | 0.7% |
| Texas Tech by 1–8 | 14.3% |
| Texas Tech by 9–16 | 21.8% |
| Texas Tech by 17+ | 58.7% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
The kicks
How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance), and what happened.
- S. Harrington, 47 yds made · 61% expected
- W. Ferrin, 51 yds missed · 57% expected
- S. Harrington, 27 yds made · 91% expected
- S. Harrington, 39 yds made · 76% expected
- S. Harrington, 29 yds made · 90% expected
- S. Harrington, 34 yds made · 84% expected
Penalties: BYU 4 for 22 yards, Texas Tech 6 for 50 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 12:45 | False Start on Texas Tech, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% BYU +0.7 pts |
| Q1 7:00 | False Start on BYU, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% TTU +0.5 pts |
| Q2 1:55 | False Start on BYU, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% TTU +0.2 pts |
| Q3 3:37 | Holding on BYU, 10 yards | 0% TTU +1.5 pts |
| Q4 13:37 | False Start on Texas Tech, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% TTU +0.2 pts |
| Q4 13:21 | Illegal Shift on Texas Tech, 5 yards, wiping out the play · pre-snap | 0% BYU +1.5 pts |
| Q4 10:51 | Illegal Substitution on BYU, 2 yards · pre-snap | 0% TTU +0.5 pts |
| Q4 4:23 | Unsportsmanlike Conduct on Texas Tech, 15 yards | 0% BYU +1.4 pts |
| Q4 3:40 | False Start on Texas Tech, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% BYU +0.1 pts |
| Q4 2:29 | Pass Interference on Texas Tech, 15 yards | 0% BYU +1.1 pts |
When it happened
Texas Tech’s chance of winning
Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q1 12:52 | BYU was stopped on 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 36% expected | +2% TTU | BYU: Punt |
| 2 | Q1 10:41 | Texas Tech was stopped on 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 34% expected | +2% BYU | TTU: Field goal |
| 3 | Q1 10:07 | S. Harrington made a 47-yard field goalKicks · 61% expected for him, 3 of 5 from 45+ before | +3% TTU | TTU: Touchdown |
| 4 | Q1 7:33 | BYU converted 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 52% expected | +2% BYU | BYU: Punt |
| 5 | Q1 2:05 | Texas Tech converted 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 40% expected | +3% TTU | TTU: Touchdown |
| 6 | Q2 12:46 | BYU converted 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 40% expected | +2% BYU | BYU: Missed field goal |
| 7 | Q2 11:10 | BYU was stopped on 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 53% expected | +2% TTU | BYU: Missed field goal |
| 8 | Q2 10:35 | W. Ferrin missed a 51-yard field goalKicks · 57% expected for him, 12 of 18 from 45+ before | +2% TTU | BYU: Punt |
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
BYU 2% · Texas Tech 98%
- Final margin
- Texas Tech by 22
- Luck in points
- 8.5 for Texas Tech
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Texas Tech by 13.5
- Replay with same day's form
- BYU 5% · Texas Tech 95% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.
Methodology and validation · All Week 11 2025 games · 
BYU · 
Texas Tech
More from Week 11 2025
- Iowa State at TCU ISU 20–17 · replay 22% for the winner
- Kansas at Arizona ARIZ 24–20 · replay 74% for the winner
- Colorado at West Virginia WVU 29–22 · replay 90% for the winner
- Houston at UCF HOU 30–27 · replay 92% for the winner
- Sam Houston at Oregon State SHSU 21–17 · replay 2% for the winner
- Air Force at San José State AF 26–16 · replay 5% for the winner
- Texas State at Louisiana UL 42–39 · replay 14% for the winner
- Wake Forest at Virginia WAKE 16–9 · replay 22% for the winner
- Washington at Wisconsin WIS 13–10 · replay 23% for the winner
- Louisiana Tech at Delaware DEL 25–24 · replay 25% for the winner
- Bowling Green at Eastern Michigan EMU 27–21 · replay 26% for the winner
- Stanford at North Carolina UNC 20–15 · replay 34% for the winner