Week 8 2025 · October 18, 2025
Hawai'i at Colorado State, Week 8 2025: who deserved to win?
Hawai'i beat Colorado State 31–19, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams actually played, Hawai'i wins 9 of 10.
An off day for Colorado State: its offense and defense both played far below their usual level. In a fresh game against Hawai'i it would win 45% of the time; with this day’s form, 6%. The numbers
Before kickoff Colorado State was a 56% favorite. The biggest swing (Q4, 7:17 left): Colorado State converted 4th & 11, worth 9 points of win probability to Colorado State.
Final
 Hawai'i Rainbow Warriors | 31 |
|---|---|
 Colorado State Rams | 19 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +6 Hawai'i about even · −6 Colorado State
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Hawai'i wins 9, Colorado State wins 1.
- 1 HAW 41 CSU 0
- 2 HAW 38 CSU 7
- 3 HAW 35 CSU 7
- 4 HAW 45 CSU 21
- 5 HAW 38 CSU 17
- 6 HAW 24 CSU 7
- 7 HAW 28 CSU 14
- 8 HAW 24 CSU 14
- 9 HAW 24 CSU 20
- 10 HAW 20 CSU 27
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
An off day for Colorado State
Its offense and defense both played far below their usual level. In a fresh game against Hawai'i it would win 45% of the time; with this day’s form, 6%.
Same teams, fresh game
Replay with same day's form
38 points apart for Colorado State: the gap is how differently this game went from what the two teams usually are.
| Unit | This game | Usual level | Better or worse than usual |
|---|---|---|---|
| Hawai'i offenseEPA per play gained | +0.34 | +0.08 | better by 0.26 |
| Hawai'i defenseEPA per play allowed | −0.24 | +0.06 | better by 0.30 |
| Colorado State offenseEPA per play gained | −0.24 | +0.07 | worse by 0.31 |
| Colorado State defenseEPA per play allowed | +0.34 | +0.09 | worse by 0.25 |
EPA (expected points added) per play on competitive snaps, turnovers left out because they are valued as luck. Usual level: the team’s earlier games this season plus half of last season, pulled toward the league average. One team’s defense and the other team’s offense are the same snaps, so one game can’t fully say whose day it was; it shows how far this one was from both teams’ norms.
How 4,000 replays ended
Hawai'i wins 94% of them, Colorado State 6%, counting the 2% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Hawai'i by 12.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Hawai'i by 17+ | 63.6% |
| Hawai'i by 9–16 | 18.8% |
| Hawai'i by 1–8 | 11.4% |
| Level after regulation | 1.6% |
| Colorado State by 1–8 | 3.5% |
| Colorado State by 9–16 | 0.9% |
| Colorado State by 17+ | 0.3% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
Penalties: Hawai'i 3 for 23 yards, Colorado State 5 for 41 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 9:05 | Pass Interference on Colorado State, 4 yards | +2% HAW +0.9 pts |
| Q1 8:43 | Pass Interference on Hawai'i, 15 yards | +4% CSU +2.1 pts |
| Q1 3:28 | Holding on Colorado State, 0 yards | 0% HAW 0.0 pts |
| Q1 2:12 | False Start on Hawai'i, 5 yards · pre-snap | +2% CSU +0.7 pts |
| Q2 0:54 | Pass Interference on Colorado State, 15 yards | +2% HAW +0.6 pts |
| Q3 4:03 | Pass Interference on Colorado State, 12 yards | +1% HAW +1.4 pts |
| Q4 7:03 | Penalty on Hawai'i, 3 yards | 0% CSU +0.9 pts |
| Q4 2:11 | Holding on Colorado State, 10 yards | +4% HAW +0.6 pts |
When it happened
Colorado State’s chance of winning
As low as 0% and as high as 60%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q1 9:40 | Hawai'i converted 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 38% expected | +5% HAW | HAW: Touchdown |
| 2 | Q1 8:43 | Pass Interference on Hawai'i, 15 yardsJudgment calls | +4% CSU | CSU: Punt |
| 3 | Q1 7:41 | Colorado State converted 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 41% expected | +4% CSU | CSU: Punt |
| 4 | Q2 13:16 | Hawai'i converted 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 41% expected | +5% HAW | HAW: Turnover |
| 5 | Q3 13:26 | Hawai'i converted 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 46% expected | +5% HAW | HAW: Touchdown |
| 6 | Q4 7:17 | Colorado State converted 4th & 113rd & 4th downs · 24% expected | +9% CSU | CSU: Touchdown |
| 7 | Q4 6:50 | Colorado State’s two-point try failed3rd & 4th downs · 46% expected | +4% HAW | CSU: Turnover on downs |
| 8 | Q4 2:11 | Holding on Colorado State, 10 yardsJudgment calls | +4% HAW | HAW: End of game |
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Hawai'i 98% · Colorado State 2%
- Final margin
- Hawai'i by 12
- Luck in points
- 0.4 for Hawai'i
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Hawai'i by 11.6
- Replay with same day's form
- Hawai'i 94% · Colorado State 6% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.
Methodology and validation · All Week 8 2025 games · 
Hawai'i · 
Colorado State
More from Week 8 2025
- Wyoming at Air Force AF 24–21 · replay 13% for the winner
- Nevada at New Mexico UNM 24–22 · replay 58% for the winner
- San José State at Utah State USU 30–25 · replay 71% for the winner
- UNLV at Boise State BOIS 56–31 · replay 95% for the winner
- Texas at Kentucky TEX 16–13 · replay 7% for the winner
- Louisville at Miami LOU 24–21 · replay 24% for the winner
- Washington State at Virginia UVA 22–20 · replay 29% for the winner
- Missouri at Auburn MIZ 23–17 · replay 32% for the winner
- Florida International at Western Kentucky FIU 25–6 · replay 33% for the winner
- Southern Miss at Louisiana USM 22–10 · replay 34% for the winner
- Texas Tech at Arizona State ASU 26–22 · replay 38% for the winner
- New Mexico State at Liberty LIB 30–27 · replay 42% for the winner