luckadjusted
CFB Week 4 · 2026

Week 8 2025 · October 18, 2025

UNLV at Boise State, Week 8 2025: who deserved to win?

Boise State beat UNLV 56–31, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams actually played, Boise State wins 10 of 10.

Before kickoff Boise State was a 79% favorite.

Final

UNLV Rebels 31
Boise State Broncos 56

October 18, 2025 · Albertsons Stadium · Closing line: Boise State −12.5

Luck index +5 Boise State about even · −5 UNLV

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. UNLV wins 0, Boise State wins 10.

  1. 1 UNLV 42 BOIS 45
  2. 2 UNLV 42 BOIS 51
  3. 3 UNLV 34 BOIS 48
  4. 4 UNLV 35 BOIS 52
  5. 5 UNLV 28 BOIS 48
  6. 6 UNLV 28 BOIS 52
  7. 7 UNLV 24 BOIS 52
  8. 8 UNLV 23 BOIS 55
  9. 9 UNLV 10 BOIS 49
  10. 10 UNLV 14 BOIS 63

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

UNLV wins 5% of them, Boise State 95%, counting the 1% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Boise State by 25.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
UNLV by 17+0.7%
UNLV by 9–160.9%
UNLV by 1–82.7%
Level after regulation0.8%
Boise State by 1–88.3%
Boise State by 9–1613.5%
Boise State by 17+73.2%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +11.5 points to Boise State: the final margin was Boise State by 25, without the luck Boise State by 13.5. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

Penalties: UNLV 5 for 25 yards, Boise State 6 for 37 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 5:38 Holding on Boise State, 10 yards +2% UNLV +1.3 pts
Q1 5:22 False Start on UNLV, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% BOIS +0.5 pts
Q1 3:44 False Start on UNLV, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% BOIS +0.8 pts
Q2 11:15 False Start on UNLV, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% BOIS +0.7 pts
Q2 9:40 Personal Foul on Boise State, 2 yards +1% UNLV +0.8 pts
Q2 9:37 Unsportsmanlike Conduct on Boise State, 0 yards 0% UNLV 0.0 pts
Q2 0:52 Pass Interference on Boise State, 5 yards 0% UNLV +1.8 pts
Q2 0:48 False Start on UNLV, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% BOIS +1.0 pts
Q4 9:38 False Start on Boise State, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% UNLV +0.8 pts
Q4 5:11 Unsportsmanlike Conduct on Boise State, 15 yards 0% UNLV +2.4 pts
Q4 5:01 False Start on UNLV, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% BOIS +0.5 pts

When it happened

Boise State’s chance of winning

Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

Our in-game win probability: the score, the value of the possession and the time left, starting from the betting line. Overtime has no clock and is drawn at a fixed width. Shaded above the middle while Boise State was ahead in it, below while UNLV was.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 13:43 UNLV was stopped on 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 39% expected +2% BOIS UNLV: Punt
2 Q1 12:36 Boise State converted 3rd & 93rd & 4th downs · 34% expected +3% BOIS BOIS: Touchdown
3 Q1 3:17 UNLV was stopped on 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 39% expected +2% BOIS UNLV: Field goal
4 Q2 11:49 UNLV was stopped on 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 58% expected +2% BOIS UNLV: Touchdown
5 Q2 7:40 Boise State converted 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 36% expected +3% BOIS BOIS: Touchdown
6 Q3 13:49 Boise State was stopped on 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 33% expected +2% UNLV BOIS: Punt
7 Q3 11:35 UNLV was stopped on 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 58% expected +2% BOIS UNLV: Punt
8 Q3 8:00 UNLV converted 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 42% expected +2% UNLV UNLV: Punt

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

UNLV 0% · Boise State 100%

Final margin
Boise State by 25
Luck in points
11.5 for Boise State
Luck-adjusted margin
Boise State by 13.5
Replay with same day's form
UNLV 5% · Boise State 95% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

None by default: our tests measured no carryover after a lucky break. Slide it up to count a break for more than its own swing. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.

Methodology and validation · All Week 8 2025 games · UNLV · Boise State

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