luckadjusted
CFB Week 4 · 2026

Week 8 2025 · October 18, 2025

Nevada at New Mexico, Week 8 2025: who deserved to win?

New Mexico beat Nevada 24–22, but the replays call it close to a coin flip: with the way both teams played, New Mexico wins 6 of 10. Luck ran its way: 3rd & 4th downs alone were worth 10 points of win probability to New Mexico.

Before kickoff New Mexico was an 82% favorite. The biggest swing (Q4, 6:00 left): L. Drzewiecki missed a 34-yard field goal, worth 13 points of win probability to Nevada.

Final

Nevada Wolf Pack 22
New Mexico Lobos 24

October 18, 2025 · University Stadium (NM) · Closing line: New Mexico −14

Luck index +42 New Mexico lucky · −42 Nevada

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Nevada wins 4, New Mexico wins 6.

  1. 1 NEV 20 UNM 0
  2. 2 NEV 13 UNM 0
  3. 3 NEV 21 UNM 14
  4. 4 NEV 3 UNM 0
  5. 5 NEV 21 UNM 23
  6. 6 NEV 10 UNM 14
  7. 7 NEV 7 UNM 14
  8. 8 NEV 0 UNM 10
  9. 9 NEV 3 UNM 17
  10. 10 NEV 10 UNM 31

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Nevada wins 42% of them, New Mexico 58%, counting the 8% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: New Mexico by 2.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Nevada by 17+5.5%
Nevada by 9–1610.4%
Nevada by 1–818.4%
Level after regulation7.5%
New Mexico by 1–824.4%
New Mexico by 9–1619.1%
New Mexico by 17+14.5%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +5.6 points to New Mexico: the final margin was New Mexico by 2, without the luck Nevada by 3.6. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance), and what happened.

  • J. McFadden, 33 yds made · 84% expected
  • J. McFadden, 36 yds made · 80% expected
  • L. Drzewiecki, 29 yds made · 86% expected
  • J. McFadden, 41 yds made · 72% expected
  • L. Drzewiecki, 34 yds missed · 81% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Nevada 7 for 47 yards, New Mexico 8 for 64 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 14:19 Offside on Nevada, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% UNM +1.0 pts
Q1 10:40 Offside on Nevada, 5 yards · pre-snap +5% UNM +3.7 pts
Q2 14:16 Illegal Formation on Nevada, 5 yards · pre-snap +2% UNM +1.1 pts
Q2 13:07 Holding on New Mexico, 4 yards +1% NEV +0.7 pts
Q2 10:23 Face Mask on Nevada, 15 yards +2% UNM +1.6 pts
Q2 9:53 Personal Foul on Nevada, 7 yards 0% UNM +1.2 pts
Q2 9:46 False Start on New Mexico, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% NEV +0.7 pts
Q2 9:01 Holding on New Mexico, 10 yards 0% NEV 0.0 pts
Q2 2:00 False Start on Nevada, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% UNM +0.4 pts
Q2 1:37 False Start on New Mexico, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% NEV +0.2 pts
Q2 1:30 Holding on New Mexico, 10 yards 0% NEV +0.7 pts
Q3 0:55 False Start on New Mexico, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% NEV +0.4 pts
Q4 8:44 Delay of Game on Nevada, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% UNM +0.5 pts
Q4 6:54 Holding on New Mexico, 10 yards, wiping out the play +8% NEV +3.1 pts
Q4 5:17 Pass Interference on New Mexico, 15 yards +9% NEV +1.5 pts

When it happened

New Mexico’s chance of winning

Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

Our in-game win probability: the score, the value of the possession and the time left, starting from the betting line. Overtime has no clock and is drawn at a fixed width. Shaded above the middle while New Mexico was ahead in it, below while Nevada was.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 10:40 Offside on Nevada, 5 yardsPre-snap flags +5% UNM UNM: Touchdown
2 Q3 12:57 Nevada was stopped on 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 79% expected +6% UNM NEV: Touchdown
3 Q4 12:14 Nevada converted 3rd & 153rd & 4th downs · 23% expected +10% NEV NEV: Field goal
4 Q4 7:35 New Mexico converted 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 40% expected +5% UNM UNM: Missed field goal
5 Q4 6:54 Holding on New Mexico, 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls +8% NEV NEV: Turnover on downs
6 Q4 6:00 L. Drzewiecki missed a 34-yard field goalKicks · 81% expected for him +13% NEV UNM: End of game
7 Q4 5:17 Pass Interference on New Mexico, 15 yardsJudgment calls +9% NEV NEV: Turnover on downs
8 Q4 2:28 Nevada was stopped on 4th & 73rd & 4th downs · 36% expected +13% UNM –

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Nevada 69% · New Mexico 31%

Final margin
New Mexico by 2
Luck in points
5.6 for New Mexico
Luck-adjusted margin
Nevada by 3.6
Replay with same day's form
Nevada 42% · New Mexico 58% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

None by default: our tests measured no carryover after a lucky break. Slide it up to count a break for more than its own swing. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.

Methodology and validation · All Week 8 2025 games · Nevada · New Mexico

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