Week 8 2025 · October 17, 2025
San José State at Utah State, Week 8 2025: who deserved to win?
Utah State beat San José State 30–25, and the replays lean its way: with the same day's form, it wins 7 of 10. San José State had the bounces: 3rd & 4th downs alone were worth 17 points of win probability to San José State.
Before kickoff Utah State was a 58% favorite. The biggest swing (Q4, 0:04 left): San José State was stopped on 4th & 2, worth 33 points of win probability to San José State.
Final
 San José State Spartans | 25 |
|---|---|
 Utah State Aggies | 30 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +29 Utah State lucky · −29 San José State
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. San José State wins 3, Utah State wins 7.
- 1 SJSU 35 USU 17
- 2 SJSU 27 USU 19
- 3 SJSU 20 USU 17
- 4 SJSU 16 USU 18
- 5 SJSU 21 USU 26
- 6 SJSU 34 USU 42
- 7 SJSU 7 USU 19
- 8 SJSU 7 USU 23
- 9 SJSU 10 USU 31
- 10 SJSU 6 USU 36
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
How 4,000 replays ended
San José State wins 29% of them, Utah State 71%, counting the 3% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Utah State by 5.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| San José State by 17+ | 4.8% |
| San José State by 9–16 | 7.8% |
| San José State by 1–8 | 14.2% |
| Level after regulation | 2.5% |
| Utah State by 1–8 | 22.9% |
| Utah State by 9–16 | 18.6% |
| Utah State by 17+ | 29.1% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
The kicks
How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance), and what happened.
- D. Lynch, 37 yds made · 74% expected
- T. Rinker, 31 yds made · 87% expected
- D. Lynch, 35 yds made · 77% expected
- T. Rinker, 45 yds made · 64% expected
- T. Rinker, 44 yds made · 67% expected
- Extra point missed · 98% expected
Penalties: San José State 10 for 110 yards, Utah State 5 for 50 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 15:00 | Holding on San José State, 10 yards | +1% USU +0.6 pts |
| Q1 14:36 | Unsportsmanlike Conduct on Utah State, 15 yards | +2% SJSU +0.9 pts |
| Q1 9:17 | Holding on Utah State, 10 yards | +1% SJSU +0.6 pts |
| Q1 2:21 | Ineligible Downfield on San José State, 5 yards | +1% USU +0.3 pts |
| Q2 8:47 | False Start on Utah State, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% SJSU +0.6 pts |
| Q2 6:10 | Delay of Game on San José State, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% USU +0.6 pts |
| Q2 0:41 | Pass Interference on San José State, 15 yards | +5% USU +1.6 pts |
| Q3 11:27 | Face Mask on San José State, 15 yards | +5% USU +1.6 pts |
| Q4 12:02 | Holding on Utah State, 10 yards | +5% SJSU +1.3 pts |
| Q4 10:37 | Holding on San José State, 0 yards | 0% USU 0.0 pts |
| Q4 9:18 | Holding on San José State, 0 yards | 0% USU 0.0 pts |
| Q4 7:18 | Holding on Utah State, 10 yards | +3% SJSU +0.6 pts |
| Q4 1:04 | False Start on San José State, 5 yards · pre-snap | +2% USU +0.2 pts |
| Q4 0:34 | False Start on San José State, 5 yards · pre-snap | +2% USU +0.2 pts |
| Q4 0:15 | False Start on San José State, 50 yards · pre-snap | +2% USU +0.2 pts |
When it happened
Utah State’s chance of winning
As low as 9% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q4 9:12 | Utah State converted 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 31% expected | +10% USU | USU: Field goal |
| 2 | Q4 7:18 | Utah State was stopped on 3rd & 13rd & 4th downs · 76% expectedHolding on Utah State, 10 yardsJudgment calls | +11% SJSU | USU: Field goal |
| 3 | Q4 5:21 | San José State converted 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 39% expected | +8% SJSU | SJSU: Turnover on downs |
| 4 | Q4 3:57 | San José State was stopped on 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 77% expected | +18% USU | SJSU: Turnover on downs |
| 5 | Q4 2:03 | Utah State was stopped on 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 54% expected | +8% SJSU | USU: Field goal |
| 6 | Q4 1:58 | T. Rinker made a 44-yard field goalKicks · 67% expected for him | +11% SJSU | – |
| 7 | Q4 0:29 | San José State converted 4th & 93rd & 4th downs · 29% expected | +10% SJSU | SJSU: Turnover on downs |
| 8 | Q4 0:04 | San José State was stopped on 4th & 23rd & 4th downs · 63% expected | +33% SJSU | – |
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
San José State 51% · Utah State 49%
- Final margin
- Utah State by 5
- Luck in points
- 5.2 for Utah State
- Luck-adjusted margin
- San José State by 0.2
- Replay with same day's form
- San José State 29% · Utah State 71% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.
Methodology and validation · All Week 8 2025 games · 
San José State · 
Utah State
More from Week 8 2025
- Wyoming at Air Force AF 24–21 · replay 13% for the winner
- Nevada at New Mexico UNM 24–22 · replay 58% for the winner
- Hawai'i at Colorado State HAW 31–19 · replay 94% for the winner
- UNLV at Boise State BOIS 56–31 · replay 95% for the winner
- Texas at Kentucky TEX 16–13 · replay 7% for the winner
- Louisville at Miami LOU 24–21 · replay 24% for the winner
- Washington State at Virginia UVA 22–20 · replay 29% for the winner
- Missouri at Auburn MIZ 23–17 · replay 32% for the winner
- Florida International at Western Kentucky FIU 25–6 · replay 33% for the winner
- Southern Miss at Louisiana USM 22–10 · replay 34% for the winner
- Texas Tech at Arizona State ASU 26–22 · replay 38% for the winner
- New Mexico State at Liberty LIB 30–27 · replay 42% for the winner