Week 9 2025 · October 21, 2025
Western Kentucky at Louisiana Tech, Week 9 2025: who deserved to win?
Western Kentucky beat Louisiana Tech 28–27, but the replays call it close to a coin flip: with the way both teams played, Western Kentucky wins 5 of 10. Luck ran its way: 3rd & 4th downs alone were worth 9 points of win probability to Western Kentucky.
Before kickoff Louisiana Tech was a 64% favorite. The biggest swing (OT): Louisiana Tech fumbled and recovered it, worth 45 points of win probability to Louisiana Tech.
Final (OT)
 Western Kentucky Hilltoppers | 28 |
|---|---|
 Louisiana Tech Bulldogs | 27 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +53 Western Kentucky lucky · −53 Louisiana Tech
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Western Kentucky wins 5, Louisiana Tech wins 5.
- 1 WKU 21 LT 0
- 2 WKU 21 LT 7
- 3 WKU 20 LT 10
- 4 WKU 14 LT 9
- 5 WKU 9 LT 7
- 6 WKU 7 LT 9
- 7 WKU 10 LT 17
- 8 WKU 10 LT 20
- 9 WKU 3 LT 17
- 10 WKU 3 LT 24
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
How 4,000 replays ended
Western Kentucky wins 47% of them, Louisiana Tech 53%, counting the 3% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Western Kentucky by 1.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Western Kentucky by 17+ | 8.1% |
| Western Kentucky by 9–16 | 16.3% |
| Western Kentucky by 1–8 | 22.4% |
| Level after regulation | 2.6% |
| Louisiana Tech by 1–8 | 26.2% |
| Louisiana Tech by 9–16 | 13.7% |
| Louisiana Tech by 17+ | 10.7% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
The kicks
How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance), and what happened.
- J. Cannon, 47 yds made · 62% expected
- J. Chance, 44 yds missed · 66% expected
- J. Cassidy, 53 yds made · 49% expected
- J. Chance, 24 yds made · 92% expected
- J. Chance, 24 yds made · 92% expected
- J. Cannon, 37 yds blocked · 80% expected
- J. Chance, 57 yds blocked · 43% expected
Penalties: Western Kentucky 4 for 31 yards, Louisiana Tech 9 for 80 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 4:28 | Targeting on Louisiana Tech, 15 yards, wiping out the play | +8% WKU +3.5 pts |
| Q2 12:43 | Holding on Louisiana Tech, 10 yards | +2% WKU +0.6 pts |
| Q2 4:53 | Offside on Louisiana Tech, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% WKU +0.6 pts |
| Q2 2:28 | Personal Foul on Louisiana Tech, 15 yards | +2% WKU +0.9 pts |
| Q2 2:00 | Offside on Western Kentucky, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% LT +0.6 pts |
| Q2 1:05 | Holding on Louisiana Tech, 10 yards, wiping out the play | +4% WKU +1.7 pts |
| Q3 11:44 | Illegal Snap on Louisiana Tech, 5 yards · pre-snap | +3% WKU +0.8 pts |
| Q3 7:01 | Delay of Game on Louisiana Tech, 5 yards · pre-snap | +3% WKU +0.9 pts |
| Q3 6:09 | False Start on Western Kentucky, 5 yards · pre-snap | +2% LT +0.8 pts |
| Q3 4:25 | Illegal Block on Louisiana Tech, 5 yards | +1% WKU +0.3 pts |
| Q3 3:17 | Holding on Louisiana Tech, 10 yards | +4% WKU +1.1 pts |
| Q4 8:43 | Holding on Western Kentucky, 10 yards | +5% LT +1.3 pts |
| Q4 7:09 | Face Mask on Western Kentucky, 11 yards | +7% LT +1.2 pts |
When it happened
Louisiana Tech’s chance of winning
As low as 0% and as high as 72%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q1 4:28 | Targeting on Louisiana Tech, 15 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls | +8% WKU | WKU: Touchdown |
| 2 | Q2 12:43 | Louisiana Tech was stopped on 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 77% expectedHolding on Louisiana Tech, 10 yardsJudgment calls | +11% WKU | LT: Missed field goal |
| 3 | Q3 10:23 | Western Kentucky converted 3rd & 113rd & 4th downs · 27% expected | +9% WKU | WKU: Punt |
| 4 | Q3 3:26 | Louisiana Tech converted 3rd & 93rd & 4th downs · 30% expected | +9% LT | LT: Field goal |
| 5 | Q4 4:55 | Western Kentucky converted 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 34% expected | +14% WKU | WKU: Missed field goal |
| 6 | Q4 1:44 | J. Cannon had a 37-yard field goal blockedKicks · 80% expected for him | +27% LT | – |
| 7 | Q4 0:53 | Louisiana Tech converted 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 35% expected | +9% LT | LT: Missed field goal |
| 8 | OT | Louisiana Tech fumbled and recovered itFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 | +45% LT | – |
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Western Kentucky 30% · Louisiana Tech 70%
- Final margin
- Western Kentucky by 1
- Luck in points
- 4.9 for Western Kentucky
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Louisiana Tech by 3.9
- Replay with same day's form
- Western Kentucky 47% · Louisiana Tech 53% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.
Methodology and validation · All Week 9 2025 games · 
Western Kentucky · 
Louisiana Tech
More from Week 9 2025
- Middle Tennessee at Delaware DEL 31–28 · replay 42% for the winner
- Missouri State at New Mexico State MOST 24–17 · replay 44% for the winner
- Kennesaw State at Florida International KENN 45–26 · replay 98% for the winner
- Virginia at North Carolina UVA 17–16 · replay 15% for the winner
- BYU at Iowa State BYU 41–27 · replay 26% for the winner
- South Florida at Memphis MEM 34–31 · replay 28% for the winner
- Akron at Buffalo AKR 24–16 · replay 30% for the winner
- Auburn at Arkansas AUB 33–24 · replay 30% for the winner
- Bowling Green at Kent State KENT 24–21 · replay 38% for the winner
- Alabama at South Carolina ALA 29–22 · replay 38% for the winner
- Ole Miss at Oklahoma MISS 34–26 · replay 38% for the winner
- South Alabama at Georgia State USA 38–31 · replay 39% for the winner