Week 9 2025 · October 21, 2025
Kennesaw State at Florida International, Week 9 2025: who deserved to win?
Kennesaw State beat Florida International 45–26, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams actually played, Kennesaw State wins 10 of 10.
An off day for Florida International: its defense played far below its usual level. In a fresh game against Kennesaw State it would win 34% of the time; with this day’s form, 2%. The numbers
Before kickoff Kennesaw State was a 58% favorite. The biggest swing (Q2, 6:01 left): Holding on Kennesaw State, 10 yards, wiping out the play, worth 11 points of win probability to Florida International.
Final
 Kennesaw State Owls | 45 |
|---|---|
 Florida International Panthers | 26 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +2 Kennesaw State about even · −2 Florida International
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Kennesaw State wins 10, Florida International wins 0.
- 1 KENN 59 FIU 0
- 2 KENN 63 FIU 14
- 3 KENN 56 FIU 14
- 4 KENN 55 FIU 16
- 5 KENN 47 FIU 14
- 6 KENN 49 FIU 20
- 7 KENN 52 FIU 27
- 8 KENN 30 FIU 10
- 9 KENN 49 FIU 35
- 10 KENN 35 FIU 27
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
An off day for Florida International
Its defense played far below its usual level. In a fresh game against Kennesaw State it would win 34% of the time; with this day’s form, 2%.
Same teams, fresh game
Replay with same day's form
32 points apart for Florida International: the gap is how differently this game went from what the two teams usually are.
| Unit | This game | Usual level | Better or worse than usual |
|---|---|---|---|
| Kennesaw State offenseEPA per play gained | +0.41 | −0.05 | better by 0.46 |
| Kennesaw State defenseEPA per play allowed | +0.05 | +0.02 | worse by 0.03 |
| Florida International offenseEPA per play gained | +0.05 | +0.05 | better by 0.00 |
| Florida International defenseEPA per play allowed | +0.41 | +0.02 | worse by 0.40 |
EPA (expected points added) per play on competitive snaps, turnovers left out because they are valued as luck. Usual level: the team’s earlier games this season plus half of last season, pulled toward the league average. One team’s defense and the other team’s offense are the same snaps, so one game can’t fully say whose day it was; it shows how far this one was from both teams’ norms.
How 4,000 replays ended
Kennesaw State wins 98% of them, Florida International 2%. The line is what actually happened: Kennesaw State by 19.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Kennesaw State by 17+ | 88.7% |
| Kennesaw State by 9–16 | 6.0% |
| Kennesaw State by 1–8 | 3.7% |
| Level after regulation | 0.1% |
| Florida International by 1–8 | 1.0% |
| Florida International by 9–16 | 0.3% |
| Florida International by 17+ | 0.1% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
The kicks
How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance), and what happened.
- B. Williams, 40 yds made · 71% expected
- N. Grant, 43 yds made · 67% expected
- N. Grant, 23 yds missed · 93% expected
- N. Grant, 28 yds made · 88% expected
Penalties: Kennesaw State 6 for 51 yards, Florida International 8 for 60 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 9:33 | False Start on Kennesaw State, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% FIU +0.5 pts |
| Q1 5:56 | Face Mask on Florida International, 15 yards | +3% KENN +1.6 pts |
| Q1 5:06 | Offside on Florida International, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% KENN +0.9 pts |
| Q1 0:19 | Holding on Kennesaw State, 10 yards | +1% FIU +0.6 pts |
| Q2 11:54 | Face Mask on Florida International, 15 yards | +2% KENN +1.6 pts |
| Q2 6:01 | Holding on Kennesaw State, 10 yards, wiping out the play | +12% FIU +4.3 pts |
| Q2 6:01 | Delay of Game on Florida International, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% KENN +0.4 pts |
| Q2 1:41 | Illegal Block on Kennesaw State, 10 yards | +1% FIU +0.6 pts |
| Q2 1:15 | Ineligible Downfield on Florida International, 5 yards | +1% KENN +0.3 pts |
| Q3 8:02 | False Start on Florida International, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% KENN +0.7 pts |
| Q3 7:51 | Holding on Kennesaw State, 7 yards | +1% FIU +0.4 pts |
| Q3 2:57 | Roughing the Passer on Kennesaw State, 9 yards | +4% FIU +1.3 pts |
| Q4 14:58 | Ineligible Downfield on Florida International, 5 yards, wiping out the play | +3% KENN +2.7 pts |
| Q4 2:56 | False Start on Florida International, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% KENN +0.3 pts |
When it happened
Florida International’s chance of winning
Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q1 0:57 | Florida International converted 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 39% expected | +4% KENN | FIU: Touchdown |
| 2 | Q2 9:48 | Florida International was stopped on 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 77% expected | +5% KENN | FIU: End of half |
| 3 | Q2 6:01 | Kennesaw State was stopped on 3rd & 153rd & 4th downs · 24% expectedHolding on Kennesaw State, 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment callsDelay of Game on Florida International, 5 yardsPre-snap flags | +11% FIU | KENN: Field goal |
| 4 | Q3 11:25 | Florida International converted 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 44% expected | +4% FIU | FIU: Field goal |
| 5 | Q3 8:57 | Florida International fumbled and recovered itFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 | +4% FIU | FIU: Field goal |
| 6 | Q3 2:57 | Roughing the Passer on Kennesaw State, 9 yardsJudgment calls | +4% FIU | FIU: Missed field goal |
| 7 | Q3 1:17 | N. Grant missed a 23-yard field goalKicks · 93% expected for him | +11% KENN | FIU: Punt |
| 8 | Q4 14:58 | Ineligible Downfield on Florida International, 5 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls | +3% KENN | KENN: Punt |
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Kennesaw State 98% · Florida International 2%
- Final margin
- Kennesaw State by 19
- Luck in points
- 6.5 for Kennesaw State
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Kennesaw State by 12.5
- Replay with same day's form
- Kennesaw State 98% · Florida International 2% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.
Methodology and validation · All Week 9 2025 games · 
Kennesaw State · 
Florida International
More from Week 9 2025
- Middle Tennessee at Delaware DEL 31–28 · replay 42% for the winner
- Missouri State at New Mexico State MOST 24–17 · replay 44% for the winner
- Western Kentucky at Louisiana Tech WKU 28–27 · replay 47% for the winner
- Virginia at North Carolina UVA 17–16 · replay 15% for the winner
- BYU at Iowa State BYU 41–27 · replay 26% for the winner
- South Florida at Memphis MEM 34–31 · replay 28% for the winner
- Akron at Buffalo AKR 24–16 · replay 30% for the winner
- Auburn at Arkansas AUB 33–24 · replay 30% for the winner
- Bowling Green at Kent State KENT 24–21 · replay 38% for the winner
- Alabama at South Carolina ALA 29–22 · replay 38% for the winner
- Ole Miss at Oklahoma MISS 34–26 · replay 38% for the winner
- South Alabama at Georgia State USA 38–31 · replay 39% for the winner