Week 9 2025 · October 22, 2025
Missouri State at New Mexico State, Week 9 2025: who deserved to win?
Missouri State beat New Mexico State 24–17, but the replays call it close to a coin flip: with the way both teams played, Missouri State wins 4 of 10.
Before kickoff Missouri State was a 56% favorite. The biggest swing (OT): New Mexico State fumbled and Missouri State recovered, worth 14 points of win probability to Missouri State.
Final (OT)
 Missouri State Bears | 24 |
|---|---|
 New Mexico State Aggies | 17 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +56 Missouri State lucky · −56 New Mexico State
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Missouri State wins 4, New Mexico State wins 6.
- 1 MOST 41 NMSU 14
- 2 MOST 45 NMSU 30
- 3 MOST 12 NMSU 3
- 4 MOST 16 NMSU 13
- 5 MOST 20 NMSU 23
- 6 MOST 24 NMSU 29
- 7 MOST 16 NMSU 24
- 8 MOST 20 NMSU 34
- 9 MOST 24 NMSU 45
- 10 MOST 10 NMSU 41
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
How 4,000 replays ended
Missouri State wins 44% of them, New Mexico State 56%, counting the 3% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Missouri State by 7.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Missouri State by 17+ | 13.3% |
| Missouri State by 9–16 | 12.8% |
| Missouri State by 1–8 | 15.5% |
| Level after regulation | 3.2% |
| New Mexico State by 1–8 | 18.2% |
| New Mexico State by 9–16 | 15.0% |
| New Mexico State by 17+ | 22.0% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
The kicks
How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance), and what happened.
- R. Hawk, 48 yds blocked · 58% expected
- Y. Obeid, 32 yds made · 86% expected
- R. Hawk, 25 yds made · 91% expected
- Y. Obeid, 50 yds missed · 56% expected
Penalties: Missouri State 11 for 110 yards, New Mexico State 6 for 56 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 15:00 | False Start on Missouri State, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% NMSU +0.6 pts |
| Q1 9:45 | Offside on Missouri State, 5 yards · pre-snap | +2% NMSU +1.0 pts |
| Q1 9:45 | False Start on New Mexico State, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% MOST +0.6 pts |
| Q1 6:17 | Pass Interference on Missouri State, 15 yards | +14% MOST +8.1 pts |
| Q1 6:17 | Offside on Missouri State, 5 yards · pre-snap | +3% NMSU +1.6 pts |
| Q1 5:03 | Personal Foul on New Mexico State, 15 yards | +2% MOST +0.9 pts |
| Q1 5:03 | False Start on New Mexico State, 5 yards · pre-snap | +2% MOST +1.1 pts |
| Q1 3:19 | Pass Interference on New Mexico State, 6 yards | +3% MOST +1.9 pts |
| Q1 0:37 | Pass Interference on Missouri State, 15 yards | +3% NMSU +1.7 pts |
| Q2 8:18 | Illegal Block on Missouri State, 10 yards | +1% NMSU +0.6 pts |
| Q2 8:18 | Delay of Game on Missouri State, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% NMSU +0.2 pts |
| Q3 8:48 | Holding on New Mexico State, 10 yards | +2% MOST +1.3 pts |
| Q3 8:48 | Holding on Missouri State, 10 yards | +1% NMSU +0.6 pts |
| Q4 15:00 | False Start on Missouri State, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% NMSU +0.4 pts |
| Q4 10:27 | False Start on Missouri State, 5 yards · pre-snap | +8% MOST +4.0 pts |
| Q4 7:40 | Personal Foul on Missouri State, 30 yards | +5% NMSU +4.2 pts |
| Q4 1:42 | Unnecessary Roughness on New Mexico State, 15 yards | +7% MOST +0.9 pts |
When it happened
New Mexico State’s chance of winning
As low as 0% and as high as 55%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q1 9:45 | Missouri State converted 3rd & 93rd & 4th downs · 22% expectedOffside on Missouri State, 5 yardsPre-snap flagsFalse Start on New Mexico State, 5 yardsPre-snap flags | +5% MOST | MOST: End of half |
| 2 | Q1 6:17 | Pass Interference on Missouri State, 15 yardsJudgment callsOffside on Missouri State, 5 yardsPre-snap flags | +11% MOST | NMSU: Turnover |
| 3 | Q1 5:03 | New Mexico State was stopped on 3rd & 193rd & 4th downs · 20% expectedPersonal Foul on New Mexico State, 15 yardsJudgment callsFalse Start on New Mexico State, 5 yardsPre-snap flags | +5% MOST | NMSU: Punt |
| 4 | Q2 6:35 | New Mexico State converted 3rd & 23rd & 4th downs · 66% expectedNew Mexico State converted 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 50% expectedNew Mexico State was stopped on 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 38% expected | +5% NMSU | NMSU: End of half |
| 5 | Q3 13:45 | Missouri State converted 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 40% expected | +6% MOST | MOST: Touchdown |
| 6 | Q3 8:48 | New Mexico State was stopped on 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 79% expectedHolding on New Mexico State, 10 yardsJudgment callsHolding on Missouri State, 10 yardsJudgment calls | +9% MOST | NMSU: Punt |
| 7 | Q4 10:27 | Missouri State was stopped on 3rd & 193rd & 4th downs · 17% expectedFalse Start on Missouri State, 5 yardsPre-snap flags | +6% MOST | MOST: Punt |
| 8 | OT | New Mexico State fumbled and Missouri State recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 | +14% MOST | – |
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Missouri State 52% · New Mexico State 48%
- Final margin
- Missouri State by 7
- Luck in points
- 6.6 for Missouri State
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Missouri State by 0.4
- Replay with same day's form
- Missouri State 44% · New Mexico State 56% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.
Methodology and validation · All Week 9 2025 games · 
Missouri State · 
New Mexico State
More from Week 9 2025
- Middle Tennessee at Delaware DEL 31–28 · replay 42% for the winner
- Western Kentucky at Louisiana Tech WKU 28–27 · replay 47% for the winner
- Kennesaw State at Florida International KENN 45–26 · replay 98% for the winner
- Virginia at North Carolina UVA 17–16 · replay 15% for the winner
- BYU at Iowa State BYU 41–27 · replay 26% for the winner
- South Florida at Memphis MEM 34–31 · replay 28% for the winner
- Akron at Buffalo AKR 24–16 · replay 30% for the winner
- Auburn at Arkansas AUB 33–24 · replay 30% for the winner
- Bowling Green at Kent State KENT 24–21 · replay 38% for the winner
- Alabama at South Carolina ALA 29–22 · replay 38% for the winner
- Ole Miss at Oklahoma MISS 34–26 · replay 38% for the winner
- South Alabama at Georgia State USA 38–31 · replay 39% for the winner